Local Council By-elections 14th December 2023

[The Bishop]

Dec 15, 2023 11:39:51 GMT andrewp said:

Swale. Abbey

LD 435
Green 173
Lab 172
Con 154
RefUK 36

LD 44.8% (-16.1)
Green 17.8% (new)
Lab 17.7% (-1.8)
Con 15.9% (-1.2)
RefUK 3.9% (new)

Tories come fourth in a ward they won in 2015.

[andrewp]

Dec 15, 2023 12:53:58 GMT aidypiez said:

Are Rugby trying to give Tower hamlets a run for their money here?

They got the CC result out pretty quickly. Maybe we are in recount land.

[liverpoolliberal]

Hearing it’s close in Dunsmore, think it’s 1 LD gain, 1 Con hold

[andrewp]

Rugby Dunsmore

Bennett LD 613
Simpson-Vince Con 588
Eric Con 557
Trimble LD 548
Dyke Lab 299
Offordile Lab 256
Ford Green 145
Summers Green 89

1 x Con hold and 1x LD gain

[The Bishop]

Which means the Tories are now a minority on Rugby DC.

[andrewp]

Numbers updated following the contests this week.

Excluding countermanded elections, up to 14th December , there have now been 114 ordinary by elections for 116 seats since May 4th.

The Conservatives have defended 31- Held 10 and lost 21: 5 to the Greens, 11 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 32%) and have gained 6

Labour have defended 41- Held 31 and lost 10: 3 to the Conservatives, 4 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 76%) and have gained 8

Lib Dems have defended 15 : Held 13 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 87%) and have gained 17

Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8

There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 7
Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems


Overall net changes

Con -15
Lab -2
LD +15
Green +4
Ind + 4
SNP -4
Res/ local groups -1
Vectis -1

[iang]

And this time, my optimism wasn't wildly misplaced

[minionofmidas]

I seem to have chosen the right time to check this thread for the morning counts' results!

[Yaffles]

Interesting result in Rugby, well done to anyone who called a split. Will this mean a change of control?

[andrewp]

Dec 15, 2023 13:47:26 GMT Yaffles said:

Interesting result in Rugby, well done to anyone who called a split. Will this mean a change of control?

You’d think a change is quite likely. Depends, of course, on whether the LDs and Lab can reach agreement.

[carolus]

Dec 15, 2023 13:47:26 GMT Yaffles said:

Interesting result in Rugby, well done to anyone who called a split. Will this mean a change of control?

The council is now 20 Con, 12 Lab, 10 LD, so a Lab/LD coalition could certainly be formed. But I wonder whether they might prefer to let the Conservatives continue as a minority until May, when both parties might expect to win more seats from Con. There are three split wards where Con are defending their last seat against Labour, two further wards where the Con lead was less than 5% (one each for Lab and LD) and now Dunsmore.

[matureleft]

Dec 15, 2023 13:59:39 GMT carolus said:

Dec 15, 2023 13:47:26 GMT Yaffles said:

Interesting result in Rugby, well done to anyone who called a split. Will this mean a change of control?

The council is now 20 Con, 12 Lab, 10 LD, so a Lab/LD coalition could certainly be formed. But I wonder whether they might prefer to let the Conservatives continue as a minority until May, when both parties might expect to win more seats from Con. There are three split wards where Con are defending their last seat against Labour, two further wards where the Con lead was less than 5% (one each for Lab and LD) and now Dunsmore.

That’s a wise call. The Tories have to go through a budget and any difficulties with that. It’ll be possible to define some clear water. Taking over now would mean handling whatever the current administration has been struggling with, with an unstable coalition with its share of mistrust. But whether that wisdom prevails…

[East Anglian Lefty]

With the exception of Bilton (which isn't going to be top of either the Labour or LD target lists) there aren't any wards where Labour and the LDs really compete in Rugby - all the wards where Labour hold seats are straight fights with the Tories, and whilst they're second in some of the LD wards they're a long way back. So a coalition might face a bit less internal tension than is often the case.

[carolus]

Dec 15, 2023 14:27:38 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

With the exception of Bilton (which isn't going to be top of either the Labour or LD target lists) there aren't any wards where Labour and the LDs really compete in Rugby - all the wards where Labour hold seats are straight fights with the Tories, and whilst they're second in some of the LD wards they're a long way back. So a coalition might face a bit less internal tension than is often the case.

Until this morning's result it would surely have been the top LD target (3.5% behind).

[batman]

This coalition if it happens would be a form of Rugby union

[gibbon]

Batman does your latest post mean that we are we now at the pantomime season?

[minionofmidas]

Dec 15, 2023 14:33:21 GMT batman said:

This coalition if it happens would be a form of Rugby union

no, they'll be in league with each other

[East Anglian Lefty]

Dec 15, 2023 14:29:46 GMT carolus said:

Dec 15, 2023 14:27:38 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

With the exception of Bilton (which isn't going to be top of either the Labour or LD target lists) there aren't any wards where Labour and the LDs really compete in Rugby - all the wards where Labour hold seats are straight fights with the Tories, and whilst they're second in some of the LD wards they're a long way back. So a coalition might face a bit less internal tension than is often the case.

Until this morning's result it would surely have been the top LD target (3.5% behind).

You're right, of course - I thought they'd lost one of their standard 3 in 2021, but obviously that didn't happen. That said, I expect they'll prioritise gaining a second seat in Dunsmore over Bilton (and Labour have got the 3 wards where they're trying to gain the last seat and Hillmorton higher up on their target list, so may be more amenable to leaving Bilton alone than they would have been if they'd done alright in 2021.)

[batman]

Dec 15, 2023 14:38:10 GMT gibbon said:

Batman does your latest post mean that we are we now at the pantomime season?

I could not say. I'm sure you will want to put my comment behind you

[yellowperil]

Dec 15, 2023 14:33:21 GMT batman said:

This coalition if it happens would be a form of Rugby union

So if they took the advice of carolus they would wait to they were 15 a side?