Local Council By-elections 14th December 2023

[Tony Otim]

COTSWOLD DC; Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
ANDREWS, Stephen Ian (Conservative)
MAINWARING, Anna (Labour)
REGAN, Marshall (Independent)
WILKINSON, Tristan James (Liberal Democrat)

2023: LD 1150, 976; Con 785, 776; Lab 131, 114
2019: Con 829, 826; LD 483; Grn 468; Lab 235
2015: Con 1798, 1572; LD 633, 323; Lab 423; UKIP 384, 283

Stephen Andrews is a former Conservative councillor for the ward (2015-23), defeated this May. Tristan Wilkinson (LD) stood in Coln Valley ward in May, missing out on taking the seat by 40 votes. Given the 3 part name of the ward, it should be noted the indy gives a Lechlade address, the Conservative a Kempsford one and the Lib Dem a Fairford one.

Current Council: LD 20; Con 9; Grn 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



NORTH KESTEVEN DC; Billinghay Rural (Con died)
Candidates:
BRAND, Anthony (Independent)
LILES, Wendy Anne (Lincolnshire Independents)
WHITTLE, Adrian Michael (Liberal Democrat)
WILKES, Andy (Conservative)

2023: 2 x Con unopposed

Which means this will be the first contested election on these boundaries (fun for the prediction competition), except the boundaries are actually the same as the previous Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme ward, which had previous results:
Jun 19by (to fill unfilled seat): Con 320; Lincs Ind 160; Ind 72; LD 57; Lab 43; Ind 9
2019: 1 xCon unopp
2015: Con 1379; Lincs Ind 713; Ind 587, 369; Lab 548
2011: Con & Ind unopp
2007: Con 713; Ind 672, 508

This May, Anthony Brand stood as an independent in Sleaford Westholme, missing the seat by 1 vote to the Lincs Ind.

Current Council: Con 24; Lincs Ind 10; Unaligned Ind 4; Lab 2; Unaligned 2; 1 vacancy



RUGBY DC; Dunsmore (2x Con resigned)
Candidates:
BENNETT, Jonathan Carl (Liberal Democrat)
DYKE, Stephen (Labour)
ERIC, Salome Hlupi (Conservative)
FORD, Helen Rebecca (Green)
OFFORDILE, Jenny (Labour)
SIMPSON-VINCE, Jill Beverley (Conservative)
SUMMERS, Mark Andrew (Green)
TRIMBLE, Trisha (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Con 1089; Lab 638; LD 494; Grn 212
2022: Con 1239; LD 807; Lab 454
2021: Con 1888; Lab 552; Grn 339
2019: Con 1374; LD 477; Lab 321
2018: Con 1775; Lab 547
2016: Ind 1916; Con 434; Lab 181
2015: Con 2001; Ind 1669; Lab 535; Grn 248
2014: Ind 1289; Con 1039, Lab 233; Grn 124
2012: Ind 1281; Con 1058, 1033, 868; Lab 460; LD 324, 304

Vacancies are for 2021-24 and 2022-26 terms. Jonathan Bennett (LD) and Helen Ford (Grn0 stood here for their respective parties in May, with Bennett also having stood last year. Jenny Offordile stood for Labour in Hillmorton in May and Mark Summers (Grn) and Hugh Trimble (LD) both stood in Newbold & Brownsover.

The independents elected in 2012 (&2016) and 2014, Howard and Deepah Roberts, were both re-elected as Conservatives when their seats were up(with the former having previously been elected as a Conservative in 2008) and are the 2 councillors who have now resigned. Howard was also elected as Conservative to the county division in 2017 (see below). The unsuccessful Indy from 2015 was also elected as a Conservative in 2019.

Current Council: Con 19; Lab 12; LD 9; 2 vacancies



SWALE DC; Abbey (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
CRAYFORD, Rob (Labour)
CULHAM, Andy (Conservative)
FOTHERINGHAM-BRAY, William (Reform UK)
GIBSON, Charles Aexander (Liberal Democrat)
GOATHAM, Carol Ann(Green)

2023: LD 918, 807; Lab 314, 261; Con 276, 244
2019: LD 760, 641; Con 297, 285; Lab 280, 228; UKIP 186; Ind 167; Grn 167, 146
2015: Con 839, 799; Lab 659, 513; Ind 448, 305; Grn 389, 331;UKIP 365

None of the candidates have stood in this ward before, but Andy Culham (Con) contested the Faversham county division (which contains this ward) in 2019. This May, he and Rob Crayford (Lab) stood in Priory ward, Will Fortheringham-Bray (Reform) stood in Minster Cliffs, Charles Gibson (LD) in St Ann’s and Carol Goatham (Grn) in Bobbing, Iwade & Lower Halstow.

Current Council: Lab 16; Swale Ind All 12; Con 11; LD 4; Grn 3; 1 vacancy



THREE RIVERS DC; Chorleywood South & Maple Cross (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Harry (Liberal Democrat)
NEVILLE, Oliver J M (Conservative)
STAFFORD, Roger J (Green)
WALDRON, Martin (Labour)

2023: LD 1125, 1097; Con 587, 514; Grn 218; Lab 194, 126
2022: LD 1251; Con 755; Grn 176; Lab 159
2021: LD 1632; Con 893; Grn 165; Lab 111
2019: LD 1146; Con 832; Grn 205; Lab 68
2018: LD 1149; Con 842; Lab 157; Grn 140
Jul 17by: LD 1428; Con 597; Lab 162; Ukip 28; Grn 27
2016: LD 1418; Con 687; Lab 171; UKIP 125
2015: Con 1972; LD 1884; Lab 446
2014: LD 1216, 1196, 1106; Con 830, 729, 727; UKIP 431; Lab 226, 203, 139.

Vacancy is for the 2021-24 term. Roger Stafford stood here for the Greens in May and in every election 2018-22. Martin Waldron stood for Labour in Penn & mill End ward this May

Current Council: LD 21; Con 12; Lab 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



WARWICKSHIRE CC; Dunsmore & Leam Valley (Con resigned)
Candidates:
FORD, Helen Rebecca (Green)
KEELING, Dale (Conservative)
LIVESEY, Alison Ann (Labour)
PIMM, Stephen Warwick (Liberal Democrat)

Dale Keeling is sitting district councillor for Leam Valley ward (elected this May). Helen Ford (Grn) stood in Dunsmore ward this May. Stephen Pimm stood for the Liberal Democrats in Bilton ward this May. The Conservatives would have carried this division in May.

2021: Con 1990; Lab 571; Grn 255; LD 210
2017: Con 2636; Lab 434; LD 294; Grn 145

Current Council: Con 41; Lab 6; LD 5; Grn 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[ColinJ]

A small correction: it's Chorleywood South and Maple Cross ward. (Chorleywood South is the parish vacancy!)

[yellowbelly]

Knowing a bit of inside info on Billinghay Rural, it'll be an exciting result for sure.

[Adam in Stroud]

As a note, the Lib Dem standing down in Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford (Clare Muir) got the higher vote of the two councillors elected earlier this year.

[greenman]

At the end of the year I preview what has happened politically. This map in the New Statesmen produced by Britain Elects shows where the various parties obtained council seats in May 2023:

sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results

Compared to 2019 the Conservatives share of seats in 2023 shrank from 42% to 29%, while Labour went up from 24% to 33%. LD went from 16% to 20%, while Independents/other parties dropped from 15% to 12%. Green went from 3% to 6%, noting that 48.7% of Green councillors have been elected to District Councils where Greens doubled their number of seats since 2019. Between annual local government elections I look at LD Mark Packs' weekly round up:

www.markpack.org.uk/171016/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2023-2024/

Beyond the obvious LD by-election success I note that a third of Labour' wins have come from taking seats off the SNP and that the Greens have won as many seats from the Conservatives as Labour.

[iang]

Not that I would wish to be pedantic - heaven forfend - but I am struggling to see how what has already happened can be previewed.

[peterl]

More of a recap, but interesting nonetheless.

[greenman]

For me the question is are the results that came in May 2023 staying the same in the by-elections or changing to a new course.

[swindonlad]

Dec 10, 2023 6:14:09 GMT greenman said:

For me the question is are the results that came in May 2023 staying the same in the by-elections or changing to a new course.

I'm starting to pull the numbers together, although I'm working with the winner in May 2023 election, not, who was defending for this.

[phil156]

RUGBY, SWALE & WARWICKSHIRE all count on Friday morning the others COTSWOLD, NORTH KESTEVEN & THREE RIVERS are Thursday evening

[iang]

It's probably not breaching confidence now to say that the Lib Dems are having a crack at the Rugby / Warks elections. Partly I believe as they will come under Kenilworth and Southam. I haven't been over, as I am somewhat hors de combat at the moment, but there have been plenty of appeals for help via the local party networks. Now, as a summer by-election in Dudley (where I did go to help!) shows, that doesn't guarantee success or anything even approaching it, but it would seem that at the least we're fighting these seriously.

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew's Previews have had their Weetabix.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-six-local-by-elections-of-13th-december-2023-00bb0c6e388e

[froome]

Dec 14, 2023 7:46:24 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews have had their Weetabix.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-six-local-by-elections-of-13th-december-2023-00bb0c6e388e

Hopefully next week they will be allowed to have a mince pie.

[robert1]

Tony, as the year ends, may I thank you and the others who pull together the lists with initial details for each week. They are enormously informative and greatly appreciated. No-one should underestimate the research involved.

Andrew's previews continue to be historical and electoral tours de force.

Best wishes to everyone and thank you.

[Yaffles]

The Rugby elections will be interesting to observe given they could result in a change of administration. Plus they are close enough to home for me to actually know the area.

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 14, 2023 8:42:36 GMT froome said:

Dec 14, 2023 7:46:24 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews have had their Weetabix.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-six-local-by-elections-of-13th-december-2023-00bb0c6e388e

Hopefully next week they will be allowed to have a mince pie.

Foul disgusting things. Give them an apple pie.

[islington]

Dec 14, 2023 12:12:54 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Dec 14, 2023 8:42:36 GMT froome said:

Hopefully next week they will be allowed to have a mince pie.

Foul disgusting things. Give them an apple pie.

Wonderful things when done well.

A tiny speck of true gratification amid the endless bleak faux-jollity of Christmas.

Bah humbug. (Except the mince pies.)

[batman]

I'm with islington on this one. Despite my origins I do enjoy a good-quality mince pie. I find them preferable to Christmas pud, although that too can be very pleasant especially if served with brandy butter.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Dec 14, 2023 12:10:53 GMT Yaffles said:

The Rugby elections will be interesting to observe given they could result in a change of administration. Plus they are close enough to home for me to actually know the area.

I'll will be surprised and very impressed if there is a gain in any of the Rugby contests. I've got family living in Dunchurch and I don't think anybody would consider it to be other than a naturally Conservative area. That applies even more to the rest of the ward, with the possible exception of Ryton which I don't know well. And the county division also contains Leam Valley ward, which the Conservatives would still be favoured to win if their candidate was Harold Shipman.

[timmullen1]

Dec 14, 2023 8:42:36 GMT froome said:

Dec 14, 2023 7:46:24 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews have had their Weetabix.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-six-local-by-elections-of-13th-december-2023-00bb0c6e388e

Hopefully next week they will be allowed to have a mince pie.

Not forgetting of course the glass of sherry!