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Post by andrewteale on Dec 14, 2023 23:44:07 GMT
Billinghay is a LD gain Billinghay Rural (North Kesteven) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 41.1% 🌳 CON: 29.5% 👩💼 IND (Liles): 26.1% 🙎♂️ IND (Brand): 3.4% That's the first Lib Dem elected to North Kesteven council since 2011, when the party won three of the five North Hykeham wards. The last Lib Dem wins in the district were in the 2013 Lincolnshire county elections (both North Hykeham divisions). |
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Dec 14, 2023 23:56:15 GMT
There were a lot of tweets from a group of LD activists, which is a somwwhat unusual for NK, though of course no guarantee of anything. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2023 23:57:13 GMT
Billinghay numbers
LD 354
Con 254
LIN 225
Ind 29
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2023 0:03:55 GMT
There were a lot of tweets from a group of LD activists, which is a somwwhat unusual for NK, though of course no guarantee of anything. I thought the Lin Inds were a barrier for the Lib Dem’s. Had it been a straight Tory/ LD fight I would have backed the Lib Dem’s. I bet it’s the sort of ward where no one normally works it so the residents respond well to a bit of effort. It’s the sort of ward that the Greens might have been able to do the same in. |
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Post by mattb on Dec 15, 2023 0:42:14 GMT
Chorleywood S & Maple Cross LD 694 Con 355 Grn 102 Lab 55 T/o 21.4% Pleased with a solid hold (despite depressed turnout) in very tricky circs - an unexpected by-election in the run-up to Xmas while we were in the middle of consultation on a draft Local Plan which includes (amongst other things) a very controversial potential development of flats on and around Chorleywood Station; and a large potential urban extension in the Green Belt which would almost double the size of Maple Cross; against a Tory candidate who is their paid organiser for Chesham & Amersham and able to deploy significant resources. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 15, 2023 4:58:19 GMT
there's a cool misprint there, claiming Labour's Offordile almost gained a seat "for" the Tories (rather than "from".) |
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 15, 2023 9:09:02 GMT
there's a cool misprint there, claiming Labour's Offordile almost gained a seat "for" the Tories (rather than "from".) Well spotted! That's fixed now. |
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Post by yellowbelly on Dec 15, 2023 9:33:31 GMT
There were a lot of tweets from a group of LD activists, which is a somwwhat unusual for NK, though of course no guarantee of anything. I thought the Lin Inds were a barrier for the Lib Dem’s. Had it been a straight Tory/ LD fight I would have backed the Lib Dem’s. I bet it’s the sort of ward where no one normally works it so the residents respond well to a bit of effort. It’s the sort of ward that the Greens might have been able to do the same in. Given my prediction was good on the LD and other IND. I did underestimate the Lincs Ind vote, perhaps a fair few tories saw the ballot and the literature and thought they were an easy stepping stone. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 15, 2023 11:10:44 GMT
Conservative vote holding up pretty well in Cotswold - may reflect the fact that their candidate was the former councillor and may still have some personal support , particularly in his home village. This result not that far off what I might have expected, and reflects (so far!) the Lib Dems very good record on holding on to the seats they have gained previously, even where they are now running the council, so sort of a double defence. And it was another councillor resigning not that long after being elected, though as we go through 2024 the annoyance factor of this will die off for the class of 2023. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Dec 15, 2023 11:12:55 GMT
Hearing Dunsmore and Leam Valley County seat is a Tory hold, but big swing to LD who come second.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2023 11:14:37 GMT
The LD clean sweep is not on
Warwickshire. Dunsmore and Leam Valley
Con 911
LD 649
Lab 350
Green 219
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Dec 15, 2023 11:18:36 GMT
The LD clean sweep is not on Warwickshire. Dunsmore and Leam Valley Con 911 LD 649 Lab 350 Green 219 Con 911 42.8% -23.0 LD 649 30.5% +23.6 Lab 350 16.4% -2.5 Grn 219 10.3% +1.9 |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Dec 15, 2023 11:19:16 GMT
Wonder if that means the district seats are in play?
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Dec 15, 2023 11:21:59 GMT
The LD clean sweep is not on Warwickshire. Dunsmore and Leam Valley Con 911 LD 649 Lab 350 Green 219 Fallen at the fourth hurdle  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2023 11:26:29 GMT
Wonder if that means the district seats are in play? The 2 wards in the CC division combined voted Con 48, Lab 25, LD 18, Green 9 in May. So since then the county division has notionally gone Con -5, LD +12, Lab -9, Green +1 Applying that swing to the district ward since May, you get Con 40, LD 32 Lab 17 Green 10. Wonder how far out that will be? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2023 11:39:51 GMT
Swale. Abbey
LD 435
Green 173
Lab 172
Con 154
RefUK 36
LD 44.8% (-16.1)
Green 17.8% (new)
Lab 17.7% (-1.8)
Con 15.9% (-1.2)
RefUK 3.9% (new)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 15, 2023 11:48:09 GMT
Wonder if that means the district seats are in play? The 2 wards in the CC division combined voted Con 48, Lab 25, LD 18, Green 9 in May. So since then the county division has notionally gone Con -5, LD +12, Lab -9, Green +1 Applying that swing to the district ward since May, you get Con 40, LD 32 Lab 17 Green 10. Wonder how far out that will be? You would guess that the Lib Dems might have worked Dunsmore harder given the district vacancies, so swing might be higher there, which might make it close... |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 15, 2023 11:51:16 GMT
The LD clean sweep is not on Warwickshire. Dunsmore and Leam Valley Con 911 LD 649 Lab 350 Green 219 That was always going to be the hardest nut. What was the comment about Harold Shipman? |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 15, 2023 12:00:40 GMT
The 2 wards in the CC division combined voted Con 48, Lab 25, LD 18, Green 9 in May. So since then the county division has notionally gone Con -5, LD +12, Lab -9, Green +1 Applying that swing to the district ward since May, you get Con 40, LD 32 Lab 17 Green 10. Wonder how far out that will be? You would guess that the Lib Dems might have worked Dunsmore harder given the district vacancies, so swing might be higher there, which might make it close... Could yet be a Con/ LibDem split, which just happes to be my forecast!- and Robert's I think. |
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Post by aidypiez on Dec 15, 2023 12:53:58 GMT
Are Rugby trying to give Tower hamlets a run for their money here?
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