The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 14, 2023 14:12:02 GMT
The Rugby elections will be interesting to observe given they could result in a change of administration. Plus they are close enough to home for me to actually know the area. I'll will be surprised and very impressed if there is a gain in any of the Rugby contests. I've got family living in Dunchurch and I don't think anybody would consider it to be other than a naturally Conservative area. That applies even more to the rest of the ward, with the possible exception of Ryton which I don't know well. And the county division also contains Leam Valley ward, which the Conservatives would still be favoured to win if their candidate was Harold Shipman. Agree about the CC seat which looks genuinely diehard Tory, but in the district ward they got under 50% in both 2022 (narrowly) and 2023 (more clearly) Whilst like most predictors I expect 2 Tory holds, that at least indicates there is some scope for changes there. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Dec 14, 2023 15:28:01 GMT
And I repeat; circumstances mean I haven't been over, so no inside info at all, but based on appeals for help and suchlike, we do seem to be investing a reasonable effort into all three, though not sure how it's weighted, if at all, in terms of county v district
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 14, 2023 15:43:50 GMT
It's easier to see a LD victory than a Labour one, but I would nevertheless be surprised and impressed to see it, given where they're starting from.
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Post by greenman on Dec 14, 2023 21:36:28 GMT
I do not follow the logic of an LD win in Rugby, Dunsmore given that the labour vote went up 8%, while the LD vote dropped 12% in May 2023. Why would those numbers change since May? Further in comparing YouGov polling at the time of the May local elections and now the Conservatives have lost a further 4% support and Labour have increased 1%, while the LD and Greens are the same UK wide.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Dec 14, 2023 22:03:47 GMT
Because it's a local election. Because the LDs can throw a big effort at it, in a way that wouldn't be possible in all out elections, because they hold the neighbouring wards which can be a base for expansion and activity. None of which means it will happen (I repeat, no inside info), but it means that it could
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 14, 2023 23:07:16 GMT
Because it's a local election. Because the LDs can throw a big effort at it, in a way that wouldn't be possible in all out elections, because they hold the neighbouring wards which can be a base for expansion and activity. None of which means it will happen (I repeat, no inside info), but it means that it could Hmm, neighbouring, which can mean very polarised, as in the case of my area growing up. Means nothing for this byelection, but an interesting reflection. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 14, 2023 23:12:24 GMT
Fairford, Lechlade etc:
Con 624
Lab 73
Ind 53
Lib Dem 705
Lib Dem hold
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Dec 14, 2023 23:17:21 GMT
Fairford, Lechlade etc: Con 624 Lab 73 Ind 53 Lib Dem 705 Lib Dem hold That's 1/10 for yellowperil's clean sweep  |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2023 23:20:15 GMT
Cotswold
LD 48.5% (-7.2)
Con 42.9% (+4.9)
Lab 5% (-1.3)
Ind 3.6% (new)
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 14, 2023 23:27:26 GMT
Fairford, Lechlade etc: Con 624 Lab 73 Ind 53 Lib Dem 705 Lib Dem hold
LD 48.5% Con 42.9% Lab 5% Ind 3.6%
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Post by mattb on Dec 14, 2023 23:27:36 GMT
Chorleywood S & Maple Ceoss
LD 694
Con 355
Grn 102
Lab 55
T/o 21.4%
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2023 23:29:42 GMT
Chorleywood S & Maple Ceoss LD 694 Con 355 Grn 102 Lab 55 T/o 21.4% LD 57,5% (+4.5) Con 29.4% (+1.8) Green 8.5% (-1.8) Lab 4.6% (-4.5) |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 14, 2023 23:30:00 GMT
Chorleywood S & Maple Ceoss LD 694 Con 355 Grn 102 Lab 55 T/o 21.4% LD 57.5% Con 29.4% Green 8.5% Lab 4.6%
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 14, 2023 23:30:21 GMT
Damn, Andrew beat me to the punch twice!  |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Dec 14, 2023 23:31:16 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2023 23:32:34 GMT
Billinghay is a LD gain
Billinghay Rural (North Kesteven) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 41.1%
🌳 CON: 29.5%
👩💼 IND (Liles): 26.1%
🙎♂️ IND (Brand): 3.4%
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 14, 2023 23:35:43 GMT
Conservative vote holding up pretty well in Cotswold - may reflect the fact that their candidate was the former councillor and may still have some personal support , particularly in his home village. This result not that far off what I might have expected, and reflects (so far!) the Lib Dems very good record on holding on to the seats they have gained previously, even where they are now running the council, so sort of a double defence.
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 14, 2023 23:35:52 GMT
Billinghay is a LD gain Billinghay Rural (North Kesteven) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 41.1% 🌳 CON: 29.5% 👩💼 IND (Liles): 26.1% 🙎♂️ IND (Brand): 3.4% Interesting! Will be the sole Lib Dem Cllr on the Council. |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 14, 2023 23:40:35 GMT
Billinghay is a LD gain Billinghay Rural (North Kesteven) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 41.1% 🌳 CON: 29.5% 👩💼 IND (Liles): 26.1% 🙎♂️ IND (Brand): 3.4% Thank you yellowbelly for the tip off! |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 14, 2023 23:42:23 GMT
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