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Post by matureleft on Feb 16, 2024 10:24:24 GMT
Looks like this 'rarely used methodology' might be put back in its box... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 10:34:49 GMT
Heh, given that he was involved it is all the more satisfying that this poll totally misfired. There's a reason why face to face surveys are hardly ever done these days, folks. |
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Post by batman on Feb 16, 2024 10:47:22 GMT
Well I do them full-time, but of course it’s nothing to do with voting intentions.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 16, 2024 10:53:36 GMT
If "So" is good enough as a way to start a sentence for Beowulf, it ought to be good enough for us.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 11:13:45 GMT
By-election swing on new boundaries 40 seats for the SNP??  |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Feb 16, 2024 11:16:14 GMT
Labour's Wellingborough result was really quite exceptional. I feel a little vindicated - having pointed out that Labour had won the seat 8 times since 1945! - in that it tends to suggest that Tory strength here in 2019 and 2017 was significantly exaggerated by the Brexit & Corbyn factors . Labour was also only narrowly defeated here in 2005.
I am much less excited by the result in Kingswood. Whilst a 16.4% swing is nothing to complain about, this rather mirrors the Tamworth result in that Labour's majority fell short of its performance there in 1997, 2001 - and even 2005.The stronger Green vote probably held Labour back a bit.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 11:19:33 GMT
with the Rochdale fiasco in between, we have unearthed a couple of gems I think in her & Alistair Strathern. Both exceptional by-election candidates & both very youthful too. With Keir Mather in Yorkshire not far behind Quite impressed by Labour's winner in Tamworth as well. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2024 11:47:11 GMT
By-election swing on new boundaries 40 seats for the SNP?? Strangely enough there was no manifestation of a decline in SNP support in this by-election.. |
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Post by where2travel on Feb 16, 2024 11:54:06 GMT
The Labour vote now (13,844) is very similar to the Labour vote in 2019 (13,737), so up 107. It would be interesting to know/guess how many of the 13,737 from 2019 are in the 13,844 this time, to help understand the proportion of 'new' votes Labour got in addition to those turning out for them again.
At the same time, the Tory vote count dropped by 77% from 2019 to now!
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 11:54:14 GMT
It is....surprising....that even given that unrealistic SNP assumption, a Labour share increase of that magnitude would net so few Scottish seats.
Just shows how dreadful their 2019 result was there.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 16, 2024 12:04:49 GMT
It is....surprising....that even given that unrealistic SNP assumption, a Labour share increase of that magnitude would net so few Scottish seats. Just shows how dreadful their 2019 result was there. Whilst you can't extrapolate too much from these byelections to Scotland, for obvious "lack of SNP" reasons, polls should be able to register some sort of anti-incumbency effect which will be relevent across the nation. Certainly, Scotland-only polls are registering this effect. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2024 12:18:12 GMT
It is....surprising....that even given that unrealistic SNP assumption, a Labour share increase of that magnitude would net so few Scottish seats. Just shows how dreadful their 2019 result was there. An increase of 19.4% is not to be sniffed at but its lower than in Selby or Tamworth - the more spectacular element of the swing here was the decline in the Conservative vote (I don't know if that -37% is a record in itself?). If you compare with the similar sized swing in Dudley West, that was much more of a straigh exhange (Con -30% Lab +28%) So with the SNP not declining (obviously they will and would, but you can't extrapolate that from an English by-election) that equates to a swing of less than 10% from SNP to Labour, which doesn't yield all that much, because as you say.. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 16, 2024 12:22:53 GMT
It is....surprising....that even given that unrealistic SNP assumption, a Labour share increase of that magnitude would net so few Scottish seats. Just shows how dreadful their 2019 result was there. An increase of 19.4% is not to be sniffed at but its lower than in Selby or Tamworth - the more spectacular element of the swing here was the decline in the Conservative vote (I don't know if that -37% is a record in itself?). If you compare with the similar sized swing in Dudley West, that was much more of a straigh exhange (Con -30% Lab +28%) So with the SNP not declining (obviously they will and would, but you can't extrapolate that from an English by-election) that equates to a swing of less than 10% from SNP to Labour, which doesn't yield all that much, because as you say.. On old boundaries even a 10% swing would see Labour gain 16 SNP seats! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 16, 2024 12:22:54 GMT
Looks like this 'rarely used methodology' might be put back in its box... And, in any case, talking to some random people followed by applying some vague adjustments is the very definition of a widely used methodology! It's used by 90% of candidates. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2024 12:25:34 GMT
An increase of 19.4% is not to be sniffed at but its lower than in Selby or Tamworth - the more spectacular element of the swing here was the decline in the Conservative vote (I don't know if that -37% is a record in itself?). If you compare with the similar sized swing in Dudley West, that was much more of a straigh exhange (Con -30% Lab +28%) So with the SNP not declining (obviously they will and would, but you can't extrapolate that from an English by-election) that equates to a swing of less than 10% from SNP to Labour, which doesn't yield all that much, because as you say.. On old boundaries even a 10% swing would see Labour gain 16 SNP seats! So on the new boundaries they gain 14 - a consequence of the reduction in overall numbers presumably, and these reductions fall in Glasgow and the Cenral belt. The SNP obviously gain all the Conservative seats on this scenario. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Feb 16, 2024 12:34:11 GMT
Splendid result for the Red team. Well done to them and a decent chance that the winner will retain this at a general.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 16, 2024 12:36:03 GMT
Starts her acceptance speech with 'So..'  Ah Bless! To be fair, she had previously said, in response to a shout "That's me Mum", so you could argue it wasn't the first word. You'd be wrong, but you could argue it. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 16, 2024 13:12:28 GMT
To be fair, she had previously said, in response to a shout "That's me Mum", so you could argue it wasn't the first word. You'd be wrong, but you could argue it. And, it's no great sin is it? Most of us do it. Like my opening 'And', a conjunction to nothing. It is a sort of clearing of the throat or perhaps a call to attention? 4-decades back in the East Midlands, it was common to open with "Now look"! A bit invasive and peremptory. Or here in South Yorkshire the near ubiquitous "RRRR-YERRR-ALLLLREEEET"? Which is opener rather than health enquiry, except when it is a health enquiry, which is quite often! |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 16, 2024 13:16:56 GMT
To be fair, she had previously said, in response to a shout "That's me Mum", so you could argue it wasn't the first word. You'd be wrong, but you could argue it. And, it's no great sin is it? Most of us do it. Like my opening 'And', a conjunction to nothing. It is a sort of clearing of the throat or perhaps a call to attention? 4-decades back in the East Midlands, it was common to open with "Now look"! A bit invasive and peremptory. Or here in South Yorkshire the near ubiquitous "RRRR-YERRR-ALLLLREEEET"? Which is opener rather than health enquiry, except when it is a health enquiry, which is quite often! Of course, and I commonly start a conversation with "Eh up, buddy, how are you?" |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 13:24:37 GMT
I remember being told at school, very sternly, that "you should never start a sentence with And". I never understood why, and happily disregarded said instruction at the time and ever since  |
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