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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2024 2:47:57 GMT
If Labour wins with a majority of 7,000 or more, the swing will exceed the highest Conservative to Labour byelection swing on record (Dudley West in 1994).
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Post by johnloony on Feb 16, 2024 2:49:22 GMT
If Labour wins with a majority of 7,000 or more, the swing will exceed the highest Conservative to Labour byelection swing on record (Dudley West in 1994). I calculated that number to be 6,900. Do you have more accurate information about what the turnout was? (Incidentally, I think the people on Sky News were getting a bit excitable rather than realistic when they said the swing might be more than it was in Dudley West) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2024 3:02:19 GMT
If Labour wins with a majority of 7,000 or more, the swing will exceed the highest Conservative to Labour byelection swing on record (Dudley West in 1994). I calculated that number to be 6,900. Do you have more accurate information about what the turnout was? (Incidentally, I think the people on Sky News were getting a bit excitable rather than realistic when they said the swing might be more than it was in Dudley West) The electorate is precisely 79.371. The turnout has been stated as 38.1% which amounts to about 30,240 votes - I don't think the precise number of BPs verified has been publicly announced. If there is an unexpectedly high number of spoiled ballots then the number needed to match Dudley West would be lower. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2024 3:09:12 GMT
Sky saying result from Wellingborough due in next 15 minutes.
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Post by johnloony on Feb 16, 2024 3:12:38 GMT
I calculated that number to be 6,900. Do you have more accurate information about what the turnout was? (Incidentally, I think the people on Sky News were getting a bit excitable rather than realistic when they said the swing might be more than it was in Dudley West) The electorate is precisely 79.371. The turnout has been stated as 38.1% which amounts to about 30,240 votes - I don't think the precise number of BPs verified has been publicly announced. If there is an unexpectedly high number of spoiled ballots then the number needed to match Dudley West would be lower. To be precise, it,could thusly be anything between 30,201 qnd 30,280. This is (of course) one of the things which has always annoyed me at elections: at my own elections as a candidate, I almost always had to go to the R.O. and ask him/her specifically for the number, not the percentage. By the way, if the turnout is only c.30,240 then the relevant number would be more like 6,800. If we want to know the number more precisely, we would have to go back to the results from Dudley West from 1992 and 1994, and calculate the percentages and swings to 2 or 3 decimal places instead of the usual only one. |
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Post by willpower3 on Feb 16, 2024 3:24:30 GMT
Peter Kyle is such a smarmy twat.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Feb 16, 2024 3:25:29 GMT
The electorate is precisely 79.371. The turnout has been stated as 38.1% which amounts to about 30,240 votes - I don't think the precise number of BPs verified has been publicly announced. If there is an unexpectedly high number of spoiled ballots then the number needed to match Dudley West would be lower. To be precise, it,could thusly be anything between 30,201 qnd 30,280. This is (of course) one of the things which has always annoyed me at elections: at my own elections as a candidate, I almost always had to go to the R.O. and ask him/her specifically for the number, not the percentage. By the way, if the turnout is only c.30,240 then the relevant number would be more like 6,800. If we want to know the number more precisely, we would have to go back to the results from Dudley West from 1992 and 1994, and calculate the percentages and swings to 2 or 3 decimal places instead of the usual only one. Dudley West swing was 29.1191912%. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 16, 2024 3:27:23 GMT
I reckon that if Wellingborough has a net swing from Con to Lab of 29.1%, and if the Reform Party gets the predicted 12%, then the Conservative vote would have to be down to about 8,200 votes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2024 3:31:19 GMT
Sky saying result from Wellingborough due in next 15 minutes. Byelection night timings working as usual then. EDIT: Delay apparently due to a discrepancy of 10 votes fewer having been counted than were verified. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2024 3:45:06 GMT
Yes, it's very critical of the Conservatives. To be fair, it tends to be critical from a right-wing perspective, but it's critical nonetheless. I think what bothers me is it comes across as quite partisan. It's perhaps hyperbole but it's like Novara of the right Funnily enough Aaron Bastani is one of the contributors to their by-election special (which the BBC hasn't bothered to do and appear to be talking about Mexico currently). Mark Littlewood is the other. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 16, 2024 3:47:06 GMT
Sky saying result from Wellingborough due in next 15 minutes. Byelection night timings working as usual then. EDIT: Delay apparently due to a discrepancy of 10 votes fewer having been counted than were verified. If we’re extra lucky, one of the candidates will be about 4 or 5 votes below the 5% level and there will be a recount for checking whether a deposit is lost. |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 16, 2024 3:48:05 GMT
It's been on BBC online since about 11pm  |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 16, 2024 3:49:13 GMT
I am watching the BBC News Live feed. Just had. John Curtis on for a while. Replaying thr Kingswood declaration and einner's speech at the minute.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Feb 16, 2024 3:50:12 GMT
Candidates being informed of the provisional result now.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 16, 2024 3:56:11 GMT
candidates going on stage now
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 16, 2024 4:03:15 GMT
I like this declaration, nice and clear and no candidateS bobbing up and down to be seen on TV.
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Post by brianj on Feb 16, 2024 4:04:39 GMT
Brick, Nick tF (OMRLP) 217
Gunn (LDm) 1,422
Habib (Ref) 3,919
Harrison (Con) 7,408
Love (Ind) 18
Kitchen (Lab) 13,844
Merola (BF) 477
Morris (Grn) 1,020
Pyne-Bailey (Ind) 172
Turner-Hawes (Ind) 1,115
Watts (Ind) 533
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Feb 16, 2024 4:06:48 GMT
Jeez
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2024 4:07:15 GMT
Starts her acceptance speech with 'So..'  |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 16, 2024 4:07:21 GMT
Lab 45.8%
Con 24.5%
Ref 13%
LD 4.7%
Turner-Hawes 3.7%
Grn 3.4%
Watts 1.8%
BF 1.6%
OMRLP 0.7%
PyneBailey 0.6%
Love 0.1%
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