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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 1, 2024 20:01:14 GMT
Nominating her was a jape, wasn't it? A punchline.
"It must have seemed such a laugh,
Like chip stains and grease come out in the bath."
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 2, 2024 7:57:12 GMT
Labour 7-1 on at the bookies
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Post by matureleft on Feb 2, 2024 9:36:04 GMT
Labour 7-1 on at the bookies Ridiculous. The Tory campaign certainly seems dire to suicidal but even so. Since the odds are driven by the punters we can assume that there are plenty of people (though it’s a pretty small market) placing very poor value bets. There must be better value in other bets. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 2, 2024 9:45:37 GMT
By the time of polling day, Labour was 10-1 on to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
The Liberal Democrats were at even money to win Mid Bedfordshire, with Labour 11/4 against.
Don't watch betting odds as a clue to who's going to win a byelection.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 2, 2024 13:06:02 GMT
Up to a point, they are maybe right more often than not - that's why we remember the exceptions.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Feb 2, 2024 13:39:43 GMT
By the time of polling day, Labour was 10-1 on to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The Liberal Democrats were at even money to win Mid Bedfordshire, with Labour 11/4 against. Don't watch betting odds as a clue to who's going to win a byelection. Yes watch them, but watch other things as well. |
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Post by kevinf on Feb 2, 2024 13:43:55 GMT
By the time of polling day, Labour was 10-1 on to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The Liberal Democrats were at even money to win Mid Bedfordshire, with Labour 11/4 against. Don't watch betting odds as a clue to who's going to win a byelection. Yes watch them, but watch other things as well. Pretty sure it was the sudden big moves in the betting market that tipped people off to Galloway’s surge in Bradford West. I agree with John L on this. You have to get in very early to get decent odds on a Labour candidate in a by-election these days. |
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Post by matureleft on Feb 2, 2024 14:17:41 GMT
By the time of polling day, Labour was 10-1 on to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The Liberal Democrats were at even money to win Mid Bedfordshire, with Labour 11/4 against. Don't watch betting odds as a clue to who's going to win a byelection. They used to seen as useful indicators but the recent ones have not been great. That may be because more people have got into what was a pretty specialist market - a small amount of bigger bets or a lot of smaller ones makes a big difference. The odds in Kingswood are even more extreme. Both are a bit easier to call than Mid-Bedfordshire but wholly writing off Tory chances is nonsense. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,791
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Post by john07 on Feb 2, 2024 18:06:43 GMT
Up to a point, they are maybe right more often than not - that's why we remember the exceptions. All that bookies do is react to the money being bet on the various candidates. They have no expertise whatsoever. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Feb 2, 2024 18:19:24 GMT
ricmk I've googled every version of Andre Pyne-Bailey and haven't found anything or any one. Man/person of mystery. (with a bit of a shopping list) |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 2, 2024 18:46:21 GMT
Reform candidate is in Northern Ireland
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 2, 2024 20:14:57 GMT
Up to a point, they are maybe right more often than not - that's why we remember the exceptions. All that bookies do is react to the money being bet on the various candidates. They have no expertise whatsoever. And then they soften the odds, to ensure that regardless of outcome they win BTW, Labour at 1-7 I regard as buying money. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 2, 2024 20:43:44 GMT
Up to a point, they are maybe right more often than not - that's why we remember the exceptions. All that bookies do is react to the money being bet on the various candidates. They have no expertise whatsoever. They have a great deal of expertise in the one thing that matters : the setting of odds to leave the books balanced and a margin for profit. They have no need to know anything at all about horses, tennis, cricket, football or politics as those subjects are entirely irrelevant to their business. |
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Post by southernliberal on Feb 3, 2024 21:27:00 GMT
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 3, 2024 22:32:51 GMT
I've been told that the Conservatives have closed their campaign office & have already given up.
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Post by adlai52 on Feb 4, 2024 7:13:31 GMT
I've been told that the Conservatives have closed their campaign office & have already given up. In a seat where they got 60%+ at the last general election? It's also a seat where demographics still work quite well for the Conservatives. If they have dialled back the campaign here it's a very poor decision by CCHQ - not least because of the impact a loss could have within the party. Particularly as they still seem to be seriously contesting Kingswood, which is less promising on paper. |
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catfest
Non-Aligned
( e ^ i* pi ) + 1 = 0
Posts: 86
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Post by catfest on Feb 4, 2024 8:26:16 GMT
I've been told that the Conservatives have closed their campaign office & have already given up. In a seat where they got 60%+ at the last general election? It's also a seat where demographics still work quite well for the Conservatives. If they have dialled back the campaign here it's a very poor decision by CCHQ - not least because of the impact a loss could have within the party. Particularly as they still seem to be seriously contesting Kingswood, which is less promising on paper. Although the Wellingborough campaign office has been clsoed the campaign is reportedly being run from Rushden Conservative club. " The campaign is being run from Rushden Conservative Club instead of Mr Bone’s abandoned office in Wellingborough. But that hasn’t stopped a string of national journalists from traditionally Conservative-supporting publications visiting the office to use its dishevelled appearance as a metaphor for the campaign. " Quote from the Northants Telegraph, link posted above. Not good optics. |
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Post by matureleft on Feb 4, 2024 9:29:56 GMT
In a seat where they got 60%+ at the last general election? It's also a seat where demographics still work quite well for the Conservatives. If they have dialled back the campaign here it's a very poor decision by CCHQ - not least because of the impact a loss could have within the party. Particularly as they still seem to be seriously contesting Kingswood, which is less promising on paper. Although the Wellingborough campaign office has been clsoed the campaign is reportedly being run from Rushden Conservative club. " The campaign is being run from Rushden Conservative Club instead of Mr Bone’s abandoned office in Wellingborough. But that hasn’t stopped a string of national journalists from traditionally Conservative-supporting publications visiting the office to use its dishevelled appearance as a metaphor for the campaign. " Quote from the Northants Telegraph, link posted above. Not good optics. I’d assume that it would have been hard to use Bone’s office. It would have been paid for from parliamentary allowances and he is no longer the MP. In a general election it’s fairly straightforward (but requires care). However they presumably wanted to limit the association with Bone anyway (while choosing his girlfriend as a candidate..). I’m surprised that Bone allowed his office to have such a poor appearance. Getting an abandoned car removed for a start? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 4, 2024 9:48:35 GMT
It could be that some people, including you might say me, are being taken in by certain appearances and that the Tories may just be a little more competitive here than some think. Do I think they will win the by-election, though? No.
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 4, 2024 10:03:12 GMT
Although the Wellingborough campaign office has been clsoed the campaign is reportedly being run from Rushden Conservative club. " The campaign is being run from Rushden Conservative Club instead of Mr Bone’s abandoned office in Wellingborough. But that hasn’t stopped a string of national journalists from traditionally Conservative-supporting publications visiting the office to use its dishevelled appearance as a metaphor for the campaign. " Quote from the Northants Telegraph, link posted above. Not good optics. I’d assume that it would have been hard to use Bone’s office. It would have been paid for from parliamentary allowances and he is no longer the MP. In a general election it’s fairly straightforward (but requires care). However they presumably wanted to limit the association with Bone anyway (while choosing his girlfriend as a candidate..). I’m surprised that Bone allowed his office to have such a poor appearance. Getting an abandoned car removed for a start? the former is fairly simple fix. As long as the party pay IPSA for the rent for the duration of the campaign period it's fine. Lots of MPs do use their office for the campaign |
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