Wellingborough by-election (successful Recall Petition )

[andrewp]

I’m quite surprised that people say that the Reform UK brand is out there.

I suspect that if I did a straw poll of my friends with the question- have you heard of Reform UK, then none of them would have. They have all heard of Nigel Farage.

My dad is 76, reads the Daily Telegraph, and nearly always votes Conservative and I’m not sure Reform UK have registered much with him, he’s never mentioned them and he talks about politics a bit.

[uthacalthing]

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

[matureleft]

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

There’s no doubting the space to the right of the Tories (as the party is currently positioned). But exploiting that space requires a number of things to happen. 
1. The Tories to continue in their current mode - both fairly incompetent and gently steering toward the centre. 
2. The normal reflex as a General Election looms for grumpy voter consolidation around the major parties must not occur
3. Some fairly serious money.
4. Some attempts to focus on potential targets with credible candidates and local organisation.
5. Continued sympathy from the right-leaning media when proprietors are more likely to rally round the Tories as an election approaches. 
6. Farage to commit to the task

[batman]

Jan 31, 2024 10:59:59 GMT bigfatron said:

Jan 31, 2024 10:31:48 GMT batman said:

I'm well over 50 but thankfully am garbage-free in this respect.

I assumed it was because I’m over 60 it assumes I must be right-wing. TBF I do get some Guardian and I stories as well.
What’s your trick? It’s driving me a bit mad…

not sure I have a trick. It’s just luck presumably

[graham]

Jan 31, 2024 11:22:59 GMT matureleft said:

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

There’s no doubting the space to the right of the Tories (as the party is currently positioned). But exploiting that space requires a number of things to happen. 
1. The Tories to continue in their current mode - both fairly incompetent and gently steering toward the centre. 
2. The normal reflex as a General Election looms for grumpy voter consolidation around the major parties must not occur
3. Some fairly serious money.
4. Some attempts to focus on potential targets with credible candidates and local organisation.
5. Continued sympathy from the right-leaning media when proprietors are more likely to rally round the Tories as an election approaches. 
6. Farage to commit to the task

There is a fair bit of pressure on Reform to poll strongly in this by election in that it might well be the last opportunity before the GE to provide evidence  which might persuade Ofcom to award it Major Party status during the GE campaign. Without that, the party will be likely to receive minimal coverage from Broadccasters and would be excluded from any Debates and Discussion programmes arranged. Some good poll ratings are unlikely to suffice - there has to be evidence from votes cast in ballot boxes to support that. To date the party has done no better than barely save its deposit at the Tamworth by election.

[gibbon]

Reform also need to contest more seats in the local elections and do some work on the doorstep not just at election times but also throughout the year. They cannot just rely on Farage and Tice. Realistically they should have been doing this for the last four or five years. The Conservative Party will need to attack them more rather than sit back and hope that red wall voters who voted Conservative in 2019 will stay with them.

[The Bishop]

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

One thing they are not short of is money, and that should enable them to stand in most constituencies if they want to.

Beyond that, a certain amount of scepticism is still justified at this stage.

[uthacalthing]

Jan 31, 2024 11:59:40 GMT gibbon said:

Reform also need to contest more seats in the local elections and do some work on the doorstep not just at election times but also throughout the year. 

They are not that sort of people. 

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jan 31, 2024 11:59:40 GMT gibbon said:

Reform also need to contest more seats in the local elections and do some work on the doorstep not just at election times but also throughout the year. They cannot just rely on Farage and Tice. Realistically they should have been doing this for the last four or five years. The Conservative Party will need to attack them more rather than sit back and hope that red wall voters who voted Conservative in 2019 will stay with them.

Very few parties really know how to do the "potholes and litter picking" doorstep stuff. Lab, Con, and LD volunteers have it in their blood. The more radical elements - left and right - tend to think such things are beneath them or old hat.

As we often say on the forum, many more voters than you'd think aren't perennially online and for all the X/itter bluster and YouTube channels, if you're not knocking on doors, you're not "seen around the area"

[carlton43]

Jan 31, 2024 8:12:12 GMT bigfatron said:

Jan 29, 2024 22:34:06 GMT bsjmcr said:

The Brexit Party couldn’t even win Peterborough, a not-dissimilar seat (no doubt I’ll get slated for that) not too far from here, when really the nausea of Brexit should have been at its peak (pre-Mr Get Brexit Done), and they had an obvious name. Reform still feels to me a Twitter/Westminster village bubble entity with someone with the charisma of a low-grade bank clerk (to use Farage’s own words!) at its helm, and I’d love to see a ‘Pointless’ style survey of 100 average people to see who has even heard of Reform. 

People have heard of Reform because the Express, Mail and to lesser extent Torygraph print endless stories about it and Farage, not to mention GB News puff stories - these get picked up by Bing and amplified in their daily news feed that everyone sees on their browser launch page.
Anyone over fifty gets submerged in this garbage…

I am over-50 and unaware of all of it and have never heard  of Bing and I don't have a daily news feed.

My take on Reform is that it has a presence but not not a very prominent one for the time it has been in play and for the VI that is suggested for it.  In recent by-elections with a government in deep distress it should be doing a lot better, making more news  and having a larger profile.  On its own actions it is virtually irrelevant and invisible. 

It is two newspapers and GB News keeping it in the public eye.  If Farage does not take a prominent role it looks to be a damp squib because it has always been a damp squib.  With a crusading and corruscating Farrage urging a full on campaign the Conservatives would be in serious trouble.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jan 31, 2024 11:22:59 GMT matureleft said:

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

There’s no doubting the space to the right of the Tories (as the party is currently positioned). But exploiting that space requires a number of things to happen. 
1. The Tories to continue in their current mode - both fairly incompetent and gently steering toward the centre. 
2. The normal reflex as a General Election looms for grumpy voter consolidation around the major parties must not occur
3. Some fairly serious money.
4. Some attempts to focus on potential targets with credible candidates and local organisation.
5. Continued sympathy from the right-leaning media when proprietors are more likely to rally round the Tories as an election approaches. 
6. Farage to commit to the task

The final point is by far the most important. If Farage were to return to the fray it would give them a huge boost. If he doesn't they will have very little impact.

[graham]

The return of Farage would not - in itself - lead Ofcom to bestow Major Party status on Reform. It would still be excluded from Debates etc held during the campaign.

[johnloony]

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in about half of English constituencies, save a few dozen deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 3% nationally.

[uthacalthing]

A less churlish version of my guess

[bsjmcr]

Jan 31, 2024 11:22:59 GMT matureleft said:

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

That reminds me of Kilroy Silk who barely saved his deposit in Erewash under his Veritas banner - and he was an established ‘personality’/former political figure. On a scale, Reform appear to be closer to Veritas than old UKIP/Brexit…

[michaelarden]

Jan 31, 2024 11:22:59 GMT matureleft said:

Jan 31, 2024 11:08:29 GMT uthacalthing said:

My expectation for Reform is that they stand in less than half of English constituencies, save fewer than five deposits, never come higher than third, and poll under 2% nationally.

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

There’s no doubting the space to the right of the Tories (as the party is currently positioned). But exploiting that space requires a number of things to happen. 
1. The Tories to continue in their current mode - both fairly incompetent and gently steering toward the centre. 
2. The normal reflex as a General Election looms for grumpy voter consolidation around the major parties must not occur
3. Some fairly serious money.
4. Some attempts to focus on potential targets with credible candidates and local organisation.
5. Continued sympathy from the right-leaning media when proprietors are more likely to rally round the Tories as an election approaches. 
6. Farage to commit to the task

I think this is entirely wrong. Why is Reform polling higher than the Greens who have all of the above from the other side of the spectrum? Why are they basically polling the same as the Lib Dems who are by several factors stronger than the Greens?

To me there's something about the Brexit campaign that still has salience - the Cambridge Analytica, Facebook advertising and social media bots (many of whom are in in Russia). There's millions of people on the database and no one knows what they are receiving on their social media. I suspect REFUK or whatever they're called these days have a great deal of insight into their likely voters.

[peterl]

I'd bet on a slightly better performance but not that fantastic. Maybe 30-ish saved deposits, around 5 candidates crossing 10%, a few third places and maybe one or two distant seconds, no one close to winning.

[matureleft]

Feb 1, 2024 0:42:16 GMT michaelarden said:

Jan 31, 2024 11:22:59 GMT matureleft said:

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

There’s no doubting the space to the right of the Tories (as the party is currently positioned). But exploiting that space requires a number of things to happen. 
1. The Tories to continue in their current mode - both fairly incompetent and gently steering toward the centre. 
2. The normal reflex as a General Election looms for grumpy voter consolidation around the major parties must not occur
3. Some fairly serious money.
4. Some attempts to focus on potential targets with credible candidates and local organisation.
5. Continued sympathy from the right-leaning media when proprietors are more likely to rally round the Tories as an election approaches. 
6. Farage to commit to the task

I think this is entirely wrong. Why is Reform polling higher than the Greens who have all of the above from the other side of the spectrum? Why are they basically polling the same as the Lib Dems who are by several factors stronger than the Greens?

To me there's something about the Brexit campaign that still has salience - the Cambridge Analytica, Facebook advertising and social media bots (many of whom are in in Russia). There's millions of people on the database and no one knows what they are receiving on their social media. I suspect REFUK or whatever they're called these days have a great deal of insight into their likely voters.

My points above aren’t focused on their current polling but on what is likely to happen in a General Election. And you’ll note that there are possibilities that they could do better. They may well have some social media data - nowadays I’d be surprised if any operation with any money didn’t - but currently in real elections that isn’t getting them far. 

And a General Election under our voting system is very different. The scale of resource, human, organisational and financial, required to compete seriously beyond some isolated targets (and you’ll note my point on those) is huge. And our system forces a coalescence around the top two parties generally with other parties having to work hard against that.

I am sure that other states will put some effort in. Their purposes are typically to weaken Western alliances and to punish parties pursuing hostile agendas. In the USA there’s an obvious path. Here I’m not clear beyond some individual contests where their resources would be best spent. I’d agree that if Farage became serious (one of my key variables) there’s some value there as he is a proven disrupter. 

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 1, 2024 0:42:16 GMT michaelarden said:

Jan 31, 2024 11:22:59 GMT matureleft said:

That’s a fair punt based on their performance to date and the”personalities” who they seem to have found as candidates. There are a few places where they have a solid presence - I can think of a couple in the East Midlands. I can imagine a saved deposit in Amber Valley and Derby South for example. 

There’s no doubting the space to the right of the Tories (as the party is currently positioned). But exploiting that space requires a number of things to happen. 
1. The Tories to continue in their current mode - both fairly incompetent and gently steering toward the centre. 
2. The normal reflex as a General Election looms for grumpy voter consolidation around the major parties must not occur
3. Some fairly serious money.
4. Some attempts to focus on potential targets with credible candidates and local organisation.
5. Continued sympathy from the right-leaning media when proprietors are more likely to rally round the Tories as an election approaches. 
6. Farage to commit to the task

I think this is entirely wrong. Why is Reform polling higher than the Greens who have all of the above from the other side of the spectrum? Why are they basically polling the same as the Lib Dems who are by several factors stronger than the Greens?

To me there's something about the Brexit campaign that still has salience - the Cambridge Analytica, Facebook advertising and social media bots (many of whom are in in Russia). There's millions of people on the database and no one knows what they are receiving on their social media. I suspect REFUK or whatever they're called these days have a great deal of insight into their likely voters.

Given that both the Greens and the LDs have been performing reasonably well in local elections and Reform have been performing much less well than their polls would imply, the most likely answer is that the polls are wrong.

Reform tend to be better with online panels which often have problems with getting too many high-information voters in their sample relative to the population, and there's some evidence that their much better polling with men than women reflects the fact that men are much less willing to admit uncertainty and hence we should probably be reassigning some of their vote to the Don't Know column.

[ricmk]

This is a pretty damning writeup on the Tory campaign:

conservativehome.com/2024/02/01/by-election-sketch-in-wellingborough-the-conservative-machine-is-broken/

Ignoring the vox-pops it seems that the Tory candidate is badly tainted, can't be seen anywhere on the campaign as a result, and even Tory MPs don't want to be associated. And that photo of the constituency HQ! ConHome known for sugar-coating Tory chances, their Mid Beds writeups were pretty positive, so if they are as down as this, things must be bad.