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Post by matureleft on Feb 4, 2024 11:03:20 GMT
I’d assume that it would have been hard to use Bone’s office. It would have been paid for from parliamentary allowances and he is no longer the MP. In a general election it’s fairly straightforward (but requires care). However they presumably wanted to limit the association with Bone anyway (while choosing his girlfriend as a candidate..). I’m surprised that Bone allowed his office to have such a poor appearance. Getting an abandoned car removed for a start? the former is fairly simple fix. As long as the party pay IPSA for the rent for the duration of the campaign period it's fine. Lots of MPs do use their office for the campaign Yes, as I said straightforward for a general election. But this is different. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 4, 2024 11:09:26 GMT
the former is fairly simple fix. As long as the party pay IPSA for the rent for the duration of the campaign period it's fine. Lots of MPs do use their office for the campaign Yes, as I said straightforward for a general election. But this is different. general or not it's straightforward. |
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Post by matureleft on Feb 4, 2024 11:41:01 GMT
Yes, as I said straightforward for a general election. But this is different. general or not it's straightforward. I’m not sure how the rules apply when the MP is removed from office, as in this case. There are precedents and it may be that they maintain some rights over the office and its use? The General Election is straightforward when the MP is defending the seat or retiring. Of course Bone no longer had the whip which makes how the party handles it problematic. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2024 12:33:25 GMT
It could be that some people, including you might say me, are being taken in by certain appearances and that the Tories may just be a little more competitive here than some think. Do I think they will win the by-election, though? No. It would indeed be incredible if the Tories had just given this seat up, but that's what some with no axe to grind either way appear to be implying. What does seem clear is that Reform are confident of their best ever parliamentary result (low bar though that may be) |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 4, 2024 14:19:22 GMT
It could be that some people, including you might say me, are being taken in by certain appearances and that the Tories may just be a little more competitive here than some think. Do I think they will win the by-election, though? No. It would indeed be incredible if the Tories had just given this seat up, but that's what some with no axe to grind either way appear to be implying. What does seem clear is that Reform are confident of their best ever parliamentary result (low bar though that may be) Doubtless postal votes have begun to arrive in significant numbers by now. Perhaps scrutineers are picking up significant Reform support at the Verification stage. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 6, 2024 7:31:13 GMT
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 6, 2024 9:14:00 GMT
perhaps the office is a sort of operation mincemeat and there is a slick operation being run in secret
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Feb 6, 2024 9:52:29 GMT
It would indeed be incredible if the Tories had just given this seat up, but that's what some with no axe to grind either way appear to be implying. What does seem clear is that Reform are confident of their best ever parliamentary result (low bar though that may be) Doubtless postal votes have begun to arrive in significant numbers by now. Perhaps scrutineers are picking up significant Reform support at the Verification stage. Not if electoral services are doing their job. Getting samples from the PV has got increasingly difficult over the years. As the PV has increased samples become more relevant, so are always face down & printed on less 'transparent' paper. Quiz question: which MP received a Police caution for sharing PV samples ? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 6, 2024 10:24:29 GMT
Kerry McCarthy
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Feb 6, 2024 11:18:57 GMT
Doubtless postal votes have begun to arrive in significant numbers by now. Perhaps scrutineers are picking up significant Reform support at the Verification stage. Not if electoral services are doing their job. Getting samples from the PV has got increasingly difficult over the years. As the PV has increased samples become more relevant, so are always face down & printed on less 'transparent' paper. Quiz question: which MP received a Police caution for sharing PV samples ? I gave your post a "like" because of your comment about thicker paper for PVs. I had wondered about this for some time and it was a 'lightbulb moment'! |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Feb 6, 2024 11:21:03 GMT
Not if electoral services are doing their job. Getting samples from the PV has got increasingly difficult over the years. As the PV has increased samples become more relevant, so are always face down & printed on less 'transparent' paper. Quiz question: which MP received a Police caution for sharing PV samples ? I gave your post a "like" because of your comment about thicker paper for PVs. I had wondered about this for some time and it was a 'lightbulb moment'! A real pain though. Remember the days when going to opening the PVs was an ‘event’ ….. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 6, 2024 11:35:29 GMT
Doubtless postal votes have begun to arrive in significant numbers by now. Perhaps scrutineers are picking up significant Reform support at the Verification stage. Not if electoral services are doing their job. Getting samples from the PV has got increasingly difficult over the years. As the PV has increased samples become more relevant, so are always face down & printed on less 'transparent' paper. Quiz question: which MP received a Police caution for sharing PV samples ? I attended the verification of PVs over several days leading up to the July 2009 Norwich North by election and was able to produce a very accurate forecast of the outcome. I surprised many by saying that UKIP would beat the Greens! |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Feb 6, 2024 11:39:50 GMT
Not if electoral services are doing their job. Getting samples from the PV has got increasingly difficult over the years. As the PV has increased samples become more relevant, so are always face down & printed on less 'transparent' paper. Quiz question: which MP received a Police caution for sharing PV samples ? I attended the verification of PVs over several days leading up to the July 2009 Norwich North by election and was able to produce a very accurate forecast of the outcome. I surprised many by saying that UKIP would beat the Greens! Yes, but that was 15 years ago. Back in the day you could sample PVs, that would often help with deciding which wards to target on election day. Not any more though, for a few years (& I’ve been to about 8 counts in the last 5 years) |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 6, 2024 11:47:08 GMT
I attended the verification of PVs over several days leading up to the July 2009 Norwich North by election and was able to produce a very accurate forecast of the outcome. I surprised many by saying that UKIP would beat the Greens! Yes, but that was 15 years ago. Back in the day you could sample PVs, that would often help with deciding which wards to target on election day. Not any more though, for a few years (& I’ve been to about 8 counts in the last 5 years) The ballot papers were all placed face down and there was no indication as to the wards they related to. |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Feb 6, 2024 11:49:42 GMT
Yes, but that was 15 years ago. Back in the day you could sample PVs, that would often help with deciding which wards to target on election day. Not any more though, for a few years (& I’ve been to about 8 counts in the last 5 years) The ballot papers were all placed face down and there was no indication as to the wards they related to. But, as pointed out, in 2009 you used to be able to see the crosses. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 6, 2024 11:51:28 GMT
The ballot papers were all placed face down and there was no indication as to the wards they related to. But, as pointed out, in 2009 you used to be able to see the crosses. There were also reports of this at the 2010 and 2015 elections. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 6, 2024 13:44:31 GMT
I think that our own johnloony is one of those still doing estimates based on gleaned PV data even in recent elections. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 6, 2024 13:56:52 GMT
I think that our own johnloony is one of those still doing estimates based on gleaned PV data even in recent elections. Yes, and when I do I am careful not to reveal such predictions before the close of poll. I haven’t noticed ballot papers getting any thicker or less see-through-able. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 9, 2024 20:44:24 GMT
Labour 7-1 on at the bookies It seems that you can now get longer odds on the Tories winning than you can on Reform UK. (Insert usual caveat about what betting odds actually say about the state of the election) |
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Post by phil156 on Feb 10, 2024 11:33:36 GMT
They will be counting overnight
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