|
|
Post by ElectionMapsUK on Nov 17, 2023 13:25:06 GMT
Rossington & Bawtry (Doncaster)
LAB 1467 // 56.7% (+10.8)
CON 492 // 19.0% (-1.1)
IND 461 // 17.8% (-8.5)
RFM 168 // 6.5% (New)
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 17, 2023 13:32:34 GMT
Strong result for Labour given the recent history of this ward.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Nov 17, 2023 13:33:17 GMT
Numbers updated following the contests this week.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 16th November , there have now been 97 ordinary by elections for 98 seats since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 25- Held 7 and lost 18: 5 to the Greens, 8 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 28%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 38- Held 29 and lost 9: 3 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 76%) and have gained 8
Lib Dem’s have defended 12: Held 10 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 12
Greens have defended 7: Held 4 and lost 3: 1 to the Conservatives, 1 to Labour and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 57%) and have gained 8
There have been elections for 5 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 was lost to the Conservatives and 1 to the Greens. . And Independents have gained 6
Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dem’s
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dem’s
Overall net changes
Con -12
Lab -1
LD +10
Green +5
Ind + 4
SNP -4
Res/ local groups -1
Vectis -1
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Nov 17, 2023 13:52:51 GMT
It was mentioned earlier that this week might be an interesting test for Reform. Both Kearsley and Rossington & Bawtry saw them doing reasonably well, but probably getting a lower proportion of the vote than the Brexit Party did in the 2019 general election (in Kearsley my estimates have them on 9.1%; for Rossington and Bawtry they are on 14.4%). Westhoughton was a weaker result, but in fairness you'd expect them to do a bit worse there than in the other two contests, and it appears to have been a more keenly fought by election so their vote may have been squeezed.
Extrapolating national figures based on a couple of local by elections is a fool's game, but these results look more like what you'd expect if Reform were on 5% nationally than if they were into double figures.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Nov 17, 2023 14:54:03 GMT
Worth noting that Rossington & Bawtry is in the Tory marginal constituency of Don Valley, not the two Labour-held ones in the borough. IIRC Bawtry has a reputation as a Tory-leaning village/small town whereas Rossington has a strongly Labour history.
|
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 17, 2023 16:11:34 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +108
LDm +64
PCy +57
Grn +37
SNP -22
Con -45
Another week with something for everyone except the Cons.
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Nov 17, 2023 16:31:41 GMT
Worth noting that Rossington & Bawtry is in the Tory marginal constituency of Don Valley, not the two Labour-held ones in the borough. IIRC Bawtry has a reputation as a Tory-leaning village/small town whereas Rossington has a strongly Labour history. Yes - Rossington largely grew as a result of its colliery and "New" Rossington (the part of the village west of the railway line) is generally very working class and Labour voting. The old village is rather more middle class, but is tiny in comparison (though it has seen new developments which now house mainly owner occupier families with mortgages). The colliery site has also begun to be redeveloped and this is another relatively middle class enclave (one of its census areas is 92% owner occupied with a mortgage, one of the highest figures in Britain). Bawtry is more of a traditional small market town, with its history being tied to coaching inns and position on (what was) the Great North Road. It isn't entirely affluent; Labour might have carried it in 2015 and almost certainly did last night. But it's definitely the more Tory part of the seat. According to my estimates, the ward was very close in 2019 - I have it as 40% Conservative, 37% Labour. But none of its components were even remotely close: old Rossington village and Bawtry were both roughly 2:1 for the Conservatives, while New Rossington saw almost as wide a margin for Labour. (Also, as an aside, it is slightly perverse that Rossington is a "village" despite being four times the size of Bawtry town - but not all that surprising given how important these settlements would have been historically) |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 17, 2023 17:14:10 GMT
GWBWI Lab +108 LDm +64 PCy +57 Grn +37 SNP -22 Con -45 Another week with something for everyone except the Cons. or the SNP. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 17, 2023 19:21:45 GMT
GWBWI Lab +108 LDm +64 PCy +57 Grn +37 SNP -22 Con -45 Another week with something for everyone except the Cons. or the SNP. I think at the moment the SNP should be grateful for -22! |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 17, 2023 20:16:14 GMT
Worth noting that Rossington & Bawtry is in the Tory marginal constituency of Don Valley, not the two Labour-held ones in the borough. IIRC Bawtry has a reputation as a Tory-leaning village/small town whereas Rossington has a strongly Labour history. Yes - Rossington largely grew as a result of its colliery and "New" Rossington (the part of the village west of the railway line) is generally very working class and Labour voting. The old village is rather more middle class, but is tiny in comparison (though it has seen new developments which now house mainly owner occupier families with mortgages). The colliery site has also begun to be redeveloped and this is another relatively middle class enclave (one of its census areas is 92% owner occupied with a mortgage, one of the highest figures in Britain). Though "middle-class" may conceal more than it reveals there, given that areas with particularly high proportions of mortgage holders also tend to be areas with particularly high proportions of residents who've either got a nasty shock when they remortgaged or who are dreading that happening, with concomitant consequences for electoral behaviour. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Nov 17, 2023 20:27:55 GMT
Yes - Rossington largely grew as a result of its colliery and "New" Rossington (the part of the village west of the railway line) is generally very working class and Labour voting. The old village is rather more middle class, but is tiny in comparison (though it has seen new developments which now house mainly owner occupier families with mortgages). The colliery site has also begun to be redeveloped and this is another relatively middle class enclave (one of its census areas is 92% owner occupied with a mortgage, one of the highest figures in Britain). Though "middle-class" may conceal more than it reveals there, given that areas with particularly high proportions of mortgage holders also tend to be areas with particularly high proportions of residents who've either got a nasty shock when they remortgaged or who are dreading that happening, with concomitant consequences for electoral behaviour. I don't doubt that - and class isn't necessarily as big a division in politics as it once was. But there are other divisions as well as class: 15% of New Rossington residents have degrees, over a quarter are in fair or poor health, just 12% work from home. The equivalent figures for the rest of Rossington are 30%, 16%, and 25% respectively. It is true that current trends mean the two parts of the village probably vote more alike than usual at the moment, but this is still a deeply socially polarised area. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 20, 2023 19:58:45 GMT
With thanks to Ballot Box Scotland: NORTH LANARKSHIRE, Motherwell SE/Ravenscraig - Lab gain from SNP First preferences: Lab 1368 SNP 934 C 296 Grn 255 British Unionist 96 LD 68 Alba 66 Final: Lab 1642 SNP 1103 The preference profile is now up on the council website. In a four-seat ordinary election these votes would return 2 Labour and 2 SNP councillors - that would be a Labour gain from Conservative. |
|
