Local Council by-elections 16th November 2023

[Tony Otim]

BOLTON MBC; Kearsley (One Kearsley resigned)
Candidates:
COOPER, Charles (Liberal Democrat)
DEAN, Malaika Noor Ayesha Jabeen Taj (Conservative)
GREGORY, Dale Hindle (Reform UK & Bolton for Change)
JOHNSON, Alan (Green)
SCHOFIELD, Jackie (Labour)
WILKINSON, Tracey Louise Eden (Farnworth & Kearsley First)

2023: One Kearsley 1350, 1343, 1121; FKF 686; Lab 411, 385, 357; Con 270, 221, 127; RefUK/B4C 180; LD 28, 26, 14

Vacancy is for the 2023-26 term. Tracey Wilkinson was the Farnworth & Kearsley First candidate here in May and is former councillor for the ward 2021-23 on previous boundaries .Charles Cooper stood here for the Lib Dems in May. Malaika Dean stood for the Conservatives and Dale Gregory for Reform/Bolton for Change in Breightmet, Alan Johnson for the Greens in Rumworth and Jackie Schofield for Labour in Farnworth South.


BOLTON MBC; Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ARMSTRONG, Jeff (Reform UK & Bolton for Change)
FINNEY, Andrea (Conservative)
McGEOWN, Deirdre Janice (Liberal Democrat)
MILLINGTON, Karen (Labour)
SHEPHERD, Wendy Ann (Green)
SPEIGHT, Jack (Westhoughton First Independents)

2023: LD 1135, 1049, 981; Con 1111, 1065, 1064; Lab 759, 716, 644; Westh 1st 393; RefUK/B4C 192; Grn 173

Vacancy is for the 2023-24 term. Andrea Finney was the unsuccessful Conservative here in May and was previously councillor for Westhoughton North and Chew Moor (2021-23) on previous boundaries. Jack Speight stood for Wethoughton First. Also in May, Jeff Armstrong (RefUK/B4C) stood in Farnworth South, Deirdre McGeown (LD) and Karen Millington (Lab) in Westhoughton South (McGeown was councillor for Westhoughton South from 2019-23). Wendy Shepherd (Grn)stood in Hulton.

Current Council: Lab 28; Con 15; Horwich & Blackrod 1st 6; LD 6; FKF 2; Ind 1; 2 vacancies



CEREDIGION UA; Aberystwyth Penparcau (Ungrouped elected as PC resigned)
Candidates:
CHILDS, Shelley (Plaid Cymru)
DAVIES, Bryony Sian (Liberal Democrat)
LAWRY, Ewan Robert William (Conservatives)
MANGOLD, Alex (Labour)
MORGAN, Tomi (Independent)

2022: PC 515, 338; Lab 308; Ind 157; LD 127

Alex Mangold was the Labour candidate here last year. Ewan Lawry stood for the Conservatives in Aberystwyth Morfa a Glais ward.

Current Council: PC 20; Ind 9; LD 7; Gwlad 1; 1 vacancy



DONCASTER MBC; Rossington & Bawtry (Lab resigned)
Candidates;
COOKE, John Nolan (Independent)
DUHRE, Surjit Singh (Reform UK)
GREENHALGH, Carol (Conservative)
GUEST, Ken (Labour)

2021: Lab 1999, 1794, 1414; Ind 1147; Con 878, 877, 564; Grn 335
2017: Lab 1823, 1497, 1368; Ind 1645; Con 1039; UKIP 937; TUSC 159
2015: Lab 2653, 1744, 1611; Ind 2233, 1242, 828; UKIP 1885, 1593; Con 1714; Grn 1047

John Cooke was the Indy here last time out and was Independent Councillor for the ward 2015-21. Carol Greenhalgh (Con) stood in Edlington & Warmsworth last time out.

Current Council: Lab 39; Con 11; Mexborough First 3; Edlington & Warmsworth First 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
ACHESON, Billy (British Unionist)
AJALA, Oyebola (Conservative)
HARMON, Kaye (Labour)
McGEORGE, Robert Stewart (Liberal Democrat)
SHIELDS, Mark (Alba)
WATSON, Derek (Green)
WILSON, Neil (UKIP)
ZAMBONINI, Rosa (SNP)

2022: SNP 1941, 653; Lab 1368, 525; Con 1010; Grn 472; SFP 54; UKIP 40
2017: SNP 1507, 964; Lab 859, 565; Con 1188; Ind All North Lanarks 325; Ind 186, 131, 21; Grn 145; UKIP 68; Sol 25

Derek Watson (Grn) and Neil Wilson (UKIP) stood here last year, whilst Oyebola Ajala (Con) stood in Motherwell North, Robert McGeorge (LD) in Airdrie North and Mark Shields (Alba) in Coatbridge North. Wilson also stood here in 2017, when Kaye Harmon was the unsuccessful Labour candidate – she had been Labour councillor for the ward on previous boundaries from 2007-17.

Current Council: Lab 33; SNP 24; Progressive Change North Lanarkshire 8; Con 5; Ind 4; BUP 1; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH SOMERSET UA; Wrington (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
DAW, Thomas Joseph Harrison (Green)
LISTER, Steven James (Labour)
LOUDEN-COOKE, Samantha Anne (Liberal Democrat)
TALL, Annabel Emma Elizabeth (Conservative)

2023: Ind 944; Con 268
2019: Ind 1180; Con 220; Lab 105
2015: LD 1168; Con 1119; Lab 246

The Green stood Weston-Super-Mare Winterstoke in May, Labour in Portishead South and the Conservative in Yatton, where she lives. Annabel Tall was also the Conservative candidate here back in 2015 and was previously councillor for Yatton ward from 2011-15.

Current Council: Con & Ind Grp 15*; LD & Ind Grp 12*; Lab 10; Grn 7; Portishead Ind 4; No Political Grp 1; 1 vacancy

* I think these are 13 Con & 2 Ind and 9 LD & 3 Ind respectively, but the council webite is not much use sorting that out.

[andrewp]

No Independent candidate in Wrington is interesting. The Independent who has resigned was thought to be delaying his resignation until an Independent ‘successor’ could be found, Perhaps he gave up or is endorsing one of the others.

[froome]

Oct 23, 2023 15:47:59 GMT andrewp said:

No Independent candidate in Wrington is interesting. The Independent who has resigned was thought to be delaying his resignation until an Independent ‘successor’ could be found, Perhaps he gave up or is endorsing one of the others.

Yes, you would imagine that if they do endorse one of the candidates, that person will become favourite to win.

Annabel Tall sounds very familiar (apart from having been a councillor here previously). Has she been an MP, MEP or PCC candidate before?

Without any endorsement, the Lib Dems ought to be favourites. The Conservatives have been on a downward trajectory in North Somerset for a few years now, and I can't see them coming close. It isn't a ward Labour are likely to do well in, but although we haven't stood here for a long time (if ever), it isn't dissimilar to other wards which we have won here recently.

[andrewp]

Oct 23, 2023 18:12:41 GMT froome said:

Oct 23, 2023 15:47:59 GMT andrewp said:

No Independent candidate in Wrington is interesting. The Independent who has resigned was thought to be delaying his resignation until an Independent ‘successor’ could be found, Perhaps he gave up or is endorsing one of the others.

Yes, you would imagine that if they do endorse one of the candidates, that person will become favourite to win.

Annabel Tall sounds very familiar (apart from having been a councillor here previously). Has she been an MP, MEP or PCC candidate before?

Without any endorsement, the Lib Dems ought to be favourites. The Conservatives have been on a downward trajectory in North Somerset for a few years now, and I can't see them coming close. It isn't a ward Labour are likely to do well in, but although we haven't stood here for a long time (if ever), it isn't dissimilar to other wards which we have won here recently.

It was Lib Dem from 1995-2019 so you’d have to fancy them, but as you say the Greens have won similar wards.

[greenman]

I think the North Somerset, Wrington by-election is going to be very interesting. A map shows where the various wards are: geocities.ws/andrewteale/local03/maps/northsomerset.gif. In 2023 the Green party held Backwell and one seat in Banwell and Winscombe, taking the second from the Conservatives. They took Congresbury & Paxton from LD and Winford from an Independent. LD held Blagdon & Churchill, but all the rest of the wards around Wrington are now solid Green. The Conservatives obtained 22.1% in Wrington and Labour around 7% in Banwell & Winscombe and Congresby & Paxton. The Greens obtained 63.4% in Backwell, 60% in Congresbury and Paxton, 42.4% & 38.9% in Banwell and Winscombe, 58.6% in Winford, 50.9% Long Ashton and 48.6% in Pill, whereas LD obtained 59.1% in Blagdon & Churchill, 57.4% in Long Ashton and 44.5% in Yatton in similar rural areas. So at least 70% is up for grabs in Wrington for Green and Liberal Democrat.

[carolus]

Nov 11, 2023 18:08:58 GMT greenman said:

I think the North Somerset, Wrington by-election is going to be very interesting. A map shows where the various wards are: geocities.ws/andrewteale/local03/maps/northsomerset.gif. In 2023 the Green party held Backwell and one seat in Banwell and Winscombe, taking the second from the Conservatives. They took Congresbury & Paxton from LD and Winford from an Independent. LD held Blagdon & Churchill, but all the rest of the wards around Wrington are now solid Green. The Conservatives obtained 22.1% in Wrington and Labour around 7% in Banwell & Winscombe and Congresby & Paxton. The Greens obtained 63.4% in Backwell, 60% in Congresbury and Paxton, 42.4% & 38.9% in Banwell and Winscombe, 58.6% in Winford, 50.9% Long Ashton and 48.6% in Pill, whereas LD obtained 59.1% in Blagdon & Churchill, 57.4% in Long Ashton and 44.5% in Yatton in similar rural areas. So at least 70% is up for grabs in Wrington for Green and Liberal Democrat.

That map is rather out of date, from 2003. There was a boundary review in 2014 - map can be found e.g. www.lgbce.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/er-north_somerset-2014-order-map.pdf

[greenman]

Carolus, thanks for the correction, noting that five Green councillors were elected along the south western boundary of North Somerset compared to two Liberal Democrats and that neither Conservative nor Labour were contenders in any of these wards. My original proposition therefore still stands.

[froome]

Nov 12, 2023 15:49:17 GMT greenman said:

Carolus, thanks for the correction, noting that five Green councillors were elected along the south western boundary of North Somerset compared to two Liberal Democrats and that neither Conservative nor Labour were contenders in any of these wards. My original proposition therefore still stands.

I agree. See my comment on the Wells & Mendip Hills new constituency profile.

[greenman]

Froome, where do I find your comments as I am relatively new to this site.

[froome]

Nov 12, 2023 19:05:43 GMT greenman said:

Froome, where do I find your comments as I am relatively new to this site.

In the section Vote UK Almanac of British Politics - New Boundaries.

[Tony Otim]

A little bit non-politics related on the independent in Aberystwyth:

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63278500

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 14, 2023 21:14:16 GMT Tony Otim said:

A little bit non-politics related on the independent in Aberystwyth:

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63278500

A well-known name in Welsh football circles.

Even I've heard of him!

Those who dabble in predictions may wish to bear this in mind. (That he's well known, not that I've hard of him!)

[froome]

Oct 23, 2023 18:12:41 GMT froome said:

Oct 23, 2023 15:47:59 GMT andrewp said:

No Independent candidate in Wrington is interesting. The Independent who has resigned was thought to be delaying his resignation until an Independent ‘successor’ could be found, Perhaps he gave up or is endorsing one of the others.

Yes, you would imagine that if they do endorse one of the candidates, that person will become favourite to win.

Annabel Tall sounds very familiar (apart from having been a councillor here previously). Has she been an MP, MEP or PCC candidate before?

Without any endorsement, the Lib Dems ought to be favourites. The Conservatives have been on a downward trajectory in North Somerset for a few years now, and I can't see them coming close. It isn't a ward Labour are likely to do well in, but although we haven't stood here for a long time (if ever), it isn't dissimilar to other wards which we have won here recently.

To answer my own question - Annabel Tall was the Conservative candidate in Bath constituency in either 2019 or 2017 (can't remember now which).

[Tony Otim]

Nov 14, 2023 22:34:39 GMT froome said:

Oct 23, 2023 18:12:41 GMT froome said:

Yes, you would imagine that if they do endorse one of the candidates, that person will become favourite to win.

Annabel Tall sounds very familiar (apart from having been a councillor here previously). Has she been an MP, MEP or PCC candidate before?

Without any endorsement, the Lib Dems ought to be favourites. The Conservatives have been on a downward trajectory in North Somerset for a few years now, and I can't see them coming close. It isn't a ward Labour are likely to do well in, but although we haven't stood here for a long time (if ever), it isn't dissimilar to other wards which we have won here recently.

To answer my own question - Annabel Tall was the Conservative candidate in Bath constituency in either 2019 or 2017 (can't remember now which).

2019. 2017 was Ben Howlett failing to defend his seat...

[johnloony]

What party is “Sol” in NLanark in 2017?

[Pete Whitehead]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Scotland)

[greyfriar]

Nov 15, 2023 6:02:30 GMT johnloony said:

What party is “Sol” in NLanark in 2017?

Solidarity?

[European Lefty]

With Bolton, West Wales and the rural West Country holding elections there's a disappointing lack of nutcases in the candidates

[East Anglian Lefty]

There's a lack of independents who are obvious nutcases or nutcase parties. I think we can all think of plenty of nutcases who have stood for national parties in the past.

[minionofmidas]

I understand that one Kearsley resigned, but what happened to the other two?