October 2023 US House Speaker election

[riccimarsh]

The Speaker nomination race is down to four candidates now:

Previous ballot:

Tom Emmer - 100
Mike Johnson - 43
Byron Donalds - 32
Kevin Hern - 26
Austin Scott - 12 (drops out)

[minionofmidas]

Round 2
Emmer 90
Johnson 37, Donalds 33, Hern 31
Scott 14, Bergman 7
Write in 3, abstain 2, not voting 4

Round 3
Emmer 100
Johnson 43, Donalds 32, Hern 26
Scott 12
Write in 3, abstain 3, not voting 2

[minionofmidas]

I'm grouping them like that because that represents the far right basically. Emmer is getting a bare majority on the 4th or just possibly the 5th ballot, but it's clear that he has no more support than Scalise had. Time to start thinking about a cleanly divorce (not gonna happen).

[riccimarsh]

Oct 24, 2023 15:42:13 GMT minionofmidas said:

I'm grouping them like that because that represents the far right basically. Emmer is getting a bare majority on the 4th or just possibly the 5th ballot, but it's clear that he has no more support than Scalise had. Time to start thinking about a cleanly divorce (not gonna happen).

Emmer may have a same-sex marriage problem:

[minionofmidas]

Emmer's "Trump considers him disloyal" problem dwarfs that one, I think.

[iain]

[minionofmidas]

Emmer 107
Johnson 56
Hern, Donalds 25 each
WI 4, abstentions 2, not voting 2

They've decided that writeins count towards determining 50%. They'd decided that last-place draws eliminate everybody, before they started (or so I seem to remember). So we're getting that Emmer-Johnson repeat of the Scalise-Jordan vote.

[minionofmidas]

117-97 (5, 1, 1). Yeah, he's the nominee but he's also toast.

[jamesdoyle]

So the Republican caucus is essentially split 50-50 between complete nutcases and nutcases-but-with-a-touch-of-pragmatism. This isn'ty going to end well (for them).

[riccimarsh]

Oct 24, 2023 16:27:33 GMT minionofmidas said:

117-97 (5, 1, 1). Yeah, he's the nominee but he's also toast.

Fewer votes than Jordan got last week.

[minionofmidas]

Is it fair to consider him pre-cooked? According to wikipedia, the pre-cooked Emmer is fried in oil and then sautéed onions are added.

[minionofmidas]

Also, language

[jamesdoyle]

Jake Sherman has the anti-Emmers at 26

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Oct 23, 2023 20:15:31 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Oct 23, 2023 20:10:12 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Isn't that how Warren Harding got to be nominated? Rounds and rounds of everyone else slugging it out and then emerging from the aftermath

It's not an inspiring precedent, is it.

On the contrary, I reckon America could do with a return to normalcy.

[minionofmidas]

Oct 24, 2023 17:07:00 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jake Sherman has the anti-Emmers at 26

I've seen that 10 figure quoted since as "10 already up to that point" (in a roll call) so I guess there's some Chinese whispers involved in the quoted tweet

[jamesdoyle]

Obviously Emmer had no chance of getting to 217.
One of the GOP reps had floated the idea of voting to change the House rules to allow a winner with a plurality, on the theoretical basis that the Republicans would unite to stop Jeffries winning for the Dems. Good luck with that.

In the longer term, I had thought that a sensible, if implausible, end would have been for a two thirds of the caucus who were somewhat sensible to chuck out the maddest third, accept they'd be a minority hanging control to the Dems and start to win back their party. But with the party divided 50-50, even my wishful thinking can't make it work.

[minionofmidas]

Oct 24, 2023 18:27:33 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Obviously Emmer had no chance of getting to 217.
One of the GOP reps had floated the idea of voting to change the House rules to allow a winner with a plurality, on the theoretical basis that the Republicans would unite to stop Jeffries winning for the Dems. Good luck with that.

There's (19th century) precedent but would require a majority vote.

[Deleted]

I mean, Trump isn’t exactly wrong here.

[riccimarsh]

Oct 24, 2023 15:57:08 GMT minionofmidas said:

Emmer's "Trump considers him disloyal" problem dwarfs that one, I think.

You are correct:

[Davıd Boothroyd]

And, like clockwork, Tom Emmer has now withdrawn as he evidently can't make it.