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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 23, 2023 9:30:16 GMT
An interesting analysis of all the Speaker candidates here ahead of tonight’s House GOP conference nominating vote: Hern is the furthest right of the nine candidates, with Emmer ideologically similar to McCarthy. I think, given the numbers last week and before, that the Republicans will put forward Emmer. For Emmer to win, he needs to rebuild McCarthy's coalition from the 15th round of voting in January. Can he do that? To do so, he probably needs to offer big concessions to the Freedom Caucus and possibly plum Committee positions - the squeaky wheel gets the grease. The problem Emmer, and others, have is that the handful of hard right holdouts aren't interested in "plum committee positions" or anything else that Emmer can offer them. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2023 9:35:12 GMT
An interesting analysis of all the Speaker candidates here ahead of tonight’s House GOP conference nominating vote: Hern is the furthest right of the nine candidates, with Emmer ideologically similar to McCarthy. I think, given the numbers last week and before, that the Republicans will put forward Emmer. For Emmer to win, he needs to rebuild McCarthy's coalition from the 15th round of voting in January. Can he do that? To do so, he probably needs to offer big concessions to the Freedom Caucus and possibly plum Committee positions - the squeaky wheel gets the grease. The problem Emmer, and others, have is that the handful of hard right holdouts aren't interested in "plum committee positions" or anything else that Emmer can offer them. Fair enough. They aren’t interested in governing either it seems. I’m not sure Hern would have the votes either. Only 156/222 House Republicans are in the right-wing Republican Study Committee. How on earth does Hern get to 217? |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 23, 2023 19:56:48 GMT
This is reminding me very much of the state of the Tory party in 2019 when the extreme rump (ERG in this case) held the balance of power, are pigheaded and wont compromise at all, resulting in all the stand offs and gridlock we had for months.
We, at least, could resolve the issue by calling a GE, with the intention of increasing the party's majority to "emasculate the rump" (oo-er). The GOP dont have that option however, so how will this ever resolve itself?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2023 20:10:12 GMT
There appear to be more running than just these 6, with the vast majority being absolute nobodies. It reminds me of a more extreme version of the 2019 Tory leadership contest, where you had people who even political nerds had never heard of like Mark Harper and Kit Malthouse running - but in this case, all the candidates are at that level. The thing is an absolutely nobody is probably the only way they can get to 217. They need some fairly new, inoffensive backbench member who has never done anything worthy of making enemies. Isn't that how Warren Harding got to be nominated? Rounds and rounds of everyone else slugging it out and then emerging from the aftermath. (Bit like the Welsh winning the War of the Roses) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 23, 2023 20:15:31 GMT
The thing is an absolutely nobody is probably the only way they can get to 217. They need some fairly new, inoffensive backbench member who has never done anything worthy of making enemies. Isn't that how Warren Harding got to be nominated? Rounds and rounds of everyone else slugging it out and then emerging from the aftermath It's not an inspiring precedent, is it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2023 20:16:49 GMT
They are risking yet another government shutdown here.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2023 20:25:55 GMT
Isn't that how Warren Harding got to be nominated? Rounds and rounds of everyone else slugging it out and then emerging from the aftermath It's not an inspiring precedent, is it. No, not particularly. A warning to all those who favour sortition! |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 23, 2023 20:46:31 GMT
The thing is an absolutely nobody is probably the only way they can get to 217. They need some fairly new, inoffensive backbench member who has never done anything worthy of making enemies. Isn't that how Warren Harding got to be nominated? Rounds and rounds of everyone else slugging it out and then emerging from the aftermath. (Bit like the Welsh winning the War of the Roses) Sort of, but with a big difference. That was his, or rather his campaign manager's plan, from the very start of the campaign. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 23, 2023 21:47:25 GMT
Isn't that how Warren Harding got to be nominated? Rounds and rounds of everyone else slugging it out and then emerging from the aftermath. (Bit like the Welsh winning the War of the Roses) Sort of, but with a big difference. That was his, or rather his campaign manager's plan, from the very start of the campaign. As he was effectively Trump's model for governing, I presume you're a big fan of Warren G? |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 23, 2023 22:29:02 GMT
Sort of, but with a big difference. That was his, or rather his campaign manager's plan, from the very start of the campaign. As he was effectively Trump's model for governing, I presume you're a big fan of Warren G? I don't really agree about Trump following his style of governing, although I do see the similarities, but yes I would certainly rate him as one of my favourite US Presidents. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 23, 2023 22:53:01 GMT
As he was effectively Trump's model for governing, I presume you're a big fan of Warren G? I don't really agree about Trump following his style of governing, although I do see the similarities, but yes I would certainly rate him as one of my favourite US Presidents. Thinking specifically of his disinterestedness in the mechanics of government, his isolationism, spending much of his time at his bolthole far away from Washington and of course rampant corruption that was facilitated. I'd agree that there were differences though, Harding wasn't as wilfully incompetent as Trump (and was a successful businessman rather than someone who pissed his inheritance up the wall), actually appointed some respected figures to his cabinet and he clearly wasn't someone who would put himself in a position to be put on trial for various crimes. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2023 5:49:22 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 24, 2023 12:14:56 GMT
Actually the recent revisionism of some on the right regarding Harding is interesting. It wasn't that long since he regularly finished near the bottom (sometimes only above Buchanan) in historical POTUS ratings, and there seemed to be little dissent from this.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2023 12:42:07 GMT
Sort of, but with a big difference. That was his, or rather his campaign manager's plan, from the very start of the campaign. As he was effectively Trump's model for governing, I presume you're a big fan of Warren G? Warren G was too quick to Regulate. |
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Post by islington on Oct 24, 2023 12:52:41 GMT
Harding died on 2 Aug 1923 so the centenary was only a couple of months ago.
I believe that he is one of only three serving senators to be elected US President. I find this interesting, if true, because in books and films featuring fictional US presidential elections it is very common for the winning candidate to be a serving senator.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2023 12:53:04 GMT
Actually the recent revisionism of some on the right regarding Harding is interesting. It wasn't that long since he regularly finished near the bottom (sometimes only above Buchanan) in historical POTUS ratings, and there seemed to be little dissent from this. There's a memory aspect to all of this, it must be noted. Poor ratings are disproportionately handed out to the presidents between Lincoln and FDR with a handful of exceptions. Partly because their deeds and activities are so removed from the modern context. Harding is an interesting one. In his lifetime, he was massively popular. It was him and not Wilson who eventually got the war ended, reduced US intervention in the Americas, and sorted the Dawes Plan. He was quite forward-thinking on civil rights for his time. His treatment of Eugene Debs and other political prisoners is worthy of positive comment too, in contrast to his predecessor. All evidence shows that the population were genuinely sad when he died. All in all, a flawed man entirely. But well-liked in his time. And that's the problem - we probably don't apply hindsight to what he did right, even if we apply it to what he did wrong. |
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Post by riccimarsh on Oct 24, 2023 13:37:50 GMT
Meuser and Palmer have both dropped out of the Speaker race.
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 24, 2023 14:38:21 GMT
First round of the Speaker vote in GOP Conference:
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 24, 2023 15:06:47 GMT
First round of the Speaker vote in GOP Conference: only 210 could bring themselves to vote for *anybody* from this lot, going to be a fun slog to 217 then Seen it stated as 5 write ins, 1 abstention, 5 not voting |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 24, 2023 15:35:42 GMT
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