Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 15:33:47 GMT
I've done a rough approximation of the council results for this ward, 2012.
Labour: 34.27% and 8 cllrs
SNP: 30.62% 39.5% and 7 cllrs
LD: 8.81% and 1 cllr
Con: 4.95%
Grn: 1.46%
NF: 0.80%
UKIP: 0.27%
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Good for Labour. Admittedly the local elections were rather overshadowed by the UTG debacle, but it shows they can still do well against the SNP. Even if they've not held the Holyrood seat since 2003.
Info: This includes all of Hilton/Stockethill, when only about 66% of it is in the constituency, but it's a relatively evenly split ward, so shouldn't affect it too much.
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Post by bobjones332 on May 5, 2013 23:12:10 GMT
I've done a rough approximation of the council results for this ward, 2012. Labour: 34.27% and 8 cllrs SNP: 30.62% and 7 cllrs LD: 8.81% and 1 cllr Con: 4.95% Grn: 1.46% NF: 0.80% UKIP: 0.27% ----- Good for Labour. Admittedly the local elections were rather overshadowed by the UTG debacle, but it shows they can still do well against the SNP. Even if they've not held the Holyrood seat since 2003. Info: This includes all of Hilton/Stockethill, when only about 66% of it is in the constituency, but it's a relatively evenly split ward, so shouldn't affect it too much. - sorry but this is nonsense. I have been onto the ACC website and the results from 2012 show Labour gaining 7367 votes and the SNP gaining 8498 thus taking more and that is counting all of Hilton/Stockethill. I do not know where you got your numbers from at all. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 23:25:04 GMT
I've done a rough approximation of the council results for this ward, 2012. Labour: 34.27% and 8 cllrs SNP: 30.62% and 7 cllrs LD: 8.81% and 1 cllr Con: 4.95% Grn: 1.46% NF: 0.80% UKIP: 0.27% ----- Good for Labour. Admittedly the local elections were rather overshadowed by the UTG debacle, but it shows they can still do well against the SNP. Even if they've not held the Holyrood seat since 2003. Info: This includes all of Hilton/Stockethill, when only about 66% of it is in the constituency, but it's a relatively evenly split ward, so shouldn't affect it too much. - sorry but this is nonsense. I have been onto the ACC website and the results from 2012 show Labour gaining 7367 votes and the SNP gaining 8498 thus taking more and that is counting all of Hilton/Stockethill. I do not know where you got your numbers from at all. Do excuse me, my mind must have wandered around Bridge of Don. Labour: 34.27% and 8 cllrs SNP: 39.5% and 7 cllrs LD: 8.81% and 1 cllr Con: 4.95% Grn: 1.46% NF: 0.80% UKIP: 0.27% |
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Post by bobjones332 on May 6, 2013 8:35:26 GMT
So, you can get ballot box by ballot box breakdowns for wards in 2012. Thus I have been able to analyse the SNP/Lab performance in the Donside ballot boxes of Hilton Stockethill. Although one of them was lumped in with a central box, I have just taken the whole vote in that section. Given the relatively small sample. When added in to the other wards in Donside it gives totals of: Lab - 6237 SNP - 7703 So, even on a good day for Labour the first prefs were still nearly 1500 in favour of the nats. Not insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination, but I am unsure that there are indications of a strong pro-Labour momentum in the city at present. Unless anyone else wants to contend otherwise? Ballot box breakdowns are here by the way - www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/council_government/councillors/elections_unit/election_results_2012.asp |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 6, 2013 11:05:27 GMT
Can I point out this was not mentioned on ANY national news programme or indeed website (as this is the first I have heard of it).
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2013 15:45:19 GMT
So, you can get ballot box by ballot box breakdowns for wards in 2012. Thus I have been able to analyse the SNP/Lab performance in the Donside ballot boxes of Hilton Stockethill. Although one of them was lumped in with a central box, I have just taken the whole vote in that section. Given the relatively small sample. When added in to the other wards in Donside it gives totals of: Lab - 6237 SNP - 7703 So, even on a good day for Labour the first prefs were still nearly 1500 in favour of the nats. Not insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination, but I am unsure that there are indications of a strong pro-Labour momentum in the city at present. Unless anyone else wants to contend otherwise? Ballot box breakdowns are here by the way - www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/council_government/councillors/elections_unit/election_results_2012.aspBallot box breakdown will exclude postal votes which may make a little difference one way or the other, but unlikely to be significant. |
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Post by bobjones332 on May 6, 2013 16:34:01 GMT
A fair point. Having looked back at the postal vote box, Labour took 242 more votes in postals than the SNP across the whole Hilton Stockethill ward, not sure hoe that would break down but clearly doesn't make a massive difference to the fact they still had around 1000 votes less than the nats on a day which was pretty much accepted as being a bad one for them and a good one for Labour.
I also do not detect a strong surge in Labour's favour at present, but then I am not based in the constituency itself so it may be that within the individual communities the Labour message has resonance.
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Post by countryloon on May 6, 2013 20:53:10 GMT
A further point of interest as regards Christian Allard, who would go to Holyrood for the SNP if Mark Macdonald were to resign to fight this seat, is that he is a/ French and b/ a buffoon. He works for Dennis Robertson MSP to give his guide dog nap breaks. Mark really needs to stand here, or start looking for a new job post 2016. I like Mark. He is an earnest wee soul, but has considerable potential. Unlike Allard. Oh Boogie! He has nothing but kind words to say about you.  |
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Post by bobjones332 on May 7, 2013 7:07:08 GMT
I see in today's paper that Willie Young is Labour's likely candidate and Mark McDonald fir the SNP. How do folks see that affecting the likely outcome, if at all?
i recall Willie Young being lambasted over gypsy travellers and schools within the constituencey, but he may play well to some. Never seen him in action.
McDonald would surely be taking a big risk giving up his list seat, would folk see that as a sign of commitment or complacency? Also, is he popular locally?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2013 7:40:44 GMT
I see in today's paper that Willie Young is Labour's likely candidate and Mark McDonald fir the SNP. How do folks see that affecting the likely outcome, if at all? i recall Willie Young being lambasted over gypsy travellers and schools within the constituencey, but he may play well to some. Never seen him in action. McDonald would surely be taking a big risk giving up his list seat, would folk see that as a sign of commitment or complacency? Also, is he popular locally? Never met the man, but he does himself no favours twitter. I think standing down as a list MSP to fight Donside wouldn't play badly. Gather he has been doing things around the area and was, until last year, the councillor for Dyce/Bucks/Danestone, As boogie said, it's a wee risk.. but his best long-term career prospect! |
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Post by graniteyouth on May 7, 2013 8:40:02 GMT
Kris Chapman won't be standing - he's focussed on his role as an MSYP.
It's a difficult one for the LDs as they don't seem to have a presence or inclination to stand in the North of the city.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2013 9:31:34 GMT
Kris Chapman won't be standing - he's focussed on his role as an MSYP. It's a difficult one for the LDs as they don't seem to have a presence or inclination to stand in the North of the city. Their only councillor there is Steve Delaney (I think) and has stood for Holyrood and Westminster before, perhaps he might consider it? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2013 9:39:22 GMT
McDonald would surely be taking a big risk giving up his list seat, would folk see that as a sign of commitment or complacency? Also, is he popular locally? I'm not sure that it's all that much of a risk for him really. As somebody mentioned upthread, he'd have a very hard time getting back into Holyrood in 2016 unless one of the sitting constituency MSPs retire, potentially even if the SNP vote holds up. I'd also be very surprised to see Labour win this just now unless there is substantially more anti-SNP sentiment from 2011 SNP voters than I imagine. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 7, 2013 11:40:12 GMT
So, you can get ballot box by ballot box breakdowns for wards in 2012. Thus I have been able to analyse the SNP/Lab performance in the Donside ballot boxes of Hilton Stockethill. Although one of them was lumped in with a central box, I have just taken the whole vote in that section. Given the relatively small sample. When added in to the other wards in Donside it gives totals of: Lab - 6237 SNP - 7703 So, even on a good day for Labour the first prefs were still nearly 1500 in favour of the nats. Not insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination, but I am unsure that there are indications of a strong pro-Labour momentum in the city at present. Unless anyone else wants to contend otherwise? Ballot box breakdowns are here by the way - www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/council_government/councillors/elections_unit/election_results_2012.aspBallot box breakdown will exclude postal votes which may make a little difference one way or the other, but unlikely to be significant. Not entirely true. We focused fairly heavily on postal votes in Hilton/Stockethill last year, particularly in sheltered housing. Off-hand I can't remember what proportion of the sheltered housing tower blocks are in Donside and what are in Central, but it might make a reasonable amount of difference. That said, we've obviously got a pretty big hill to climb, particularly since both the 2011 and 2012 results included fairly significant personal votes for our candidates. |
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Post by graniteyouth on May 7, 2013 18:17:24 GMT
By election date is to be announced tomorrow. Most likely 13th June.
6th would be too soon and 20th too far away.
What are others' predictions?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2013 20:22:39 GMT
Willie Young is the candidate. Makes me feel like they're not going all out to win.
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piperdave
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Post by piperdave on May 7, 2013 21:39:13 GMT
I think the election timetable, even at its shortest would preclude a by-election on 13th June. I agree with Fraser that it's most likely to be the 20th as that enables it to be held before the summer holidays and also allow the new member to be sworn in at the Parliament the following week before their summer recess.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2013 11:19:08 GMT
JUNE 20th has been set as the date.
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Mark Mcdonald MSP is going for it.
UKIP will stand.
Greens considering.
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Post by graniteyouth on May 8, 2013 15:11:27 GMT
Lib Dems are yet to find a candidate!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2013 16:20:12 GMT
[suggests name]
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