johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Jul 8, 2013 8:58:16 GMT
Talking about cybernats, yesterday evening, a bunch of them, led by the charming Joan McAlpine MSP tore into a freelance journalist who had dared to comment on the First Minister's crass flag waving at Wimbledon. The Journo's comments were realtively mild, compared to many others on the subject, yet were deserving of demands that she be sacked by the BBC and a public flogging.
Meanwhile, the member for Runrig was claiming that "flag-gate" would be the turning point in the Yes Scotland campaign...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2013 9:04:33 GMT
Joan He Who Must Not Be Named MSP That's automatic now then? |
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2013 9:34:27 GMT
There have been more "turning points" for the Yes campaign than Rolling Stones "farewell" tours  |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jul 8, 2013 9:44:48 GMT
Must be. Guessing its to do with Lord McAlpine rather than Joan....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 10:59:51 GMT
Will he be McAlpine forever more?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 15:17:36 GMT
What share of the vote did the SNP candidate get? 42%? A majority of those who voted, supported unionist candidates. So what is your point? Do be fair to the sepratists vote share the Greens and SDA also want to break up the UK. I think we can discount the SDA ;-) Is this the most popular election thread since Haltemprice ? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 15:34:58 GMT
This is just tedious, many SNP voters will vote no to independence and many supporters of the other parties will vote yes, but at the moment it looks like it'll be a no overall Can we get over it and move on now?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 19:00:07 GMT
many supporters of the other parties will vote yes, you are playing fast and loose with the word many Ah wheesht! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 21:18:52 GMT
To be fair I don't think our Nats are cybernasties here. Very gracious of you, Erlend! I can't speak for Ailean, but I come here for the psephological chat. I'm not really interested in participating in the wider political discussions. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 18:44:12 GMT
My favourite thing about Scots Law is that one can be charged with 'malicious mischief'.
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Post by erlend on Jul 15, 2013 7:35:12 GMT
To be fair I don't think our Nats are cybernasties here. Very gracious of you, Erlend! I can't speak for Ailean, but I come here for the psephological chat. I'm not really interested in participating in the wider political discussions. I really had not intended to be patronising. If it came across as such I seriously apologise. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 15:49:48 GMT
Not at all.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 20:42:45 GMT
The canvass info is probably secret but if it has filtered as far down the foodchain as me, then YesScotland had it a fortnight ago. Of 2000 identified SNP voters, 600 intended to vote Unionist in the referendum. What about the Con Lab Libs who would vote Nationalist? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 15, 2013 20:44:26 GMT
The canvass info is probably secret but if it has filtered as far down the foodchain as me, then YesScotland had it a fortnight ago. Of 2000 identified SNP voters, 600 intended to vote Unionist in the referendum. What about the Con Lab Libs who would vote Nationalist? I don't live in Aberdeen  |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Jul 16, 2013 8:16:36 GMT
My feeling is that certainly less than 10% of Labour voters will vote Yes, perhaps even less than that once the Labour-specific campaign gets under way.
The real problem with the Yes Campaign is it is trying to be two completely different things at once. On the one hand, its all change, as we leave behind a corrupt and bankrupt UK with its anti-Scottish institutions, to create a fairer more prosperous Scotland (and wouldnt be attracted to that?) while on the other hand, we get to keep everything we like, such as the £, the Bank of England, NATO, The Queen, the BBC, etc, etc. We're also going to have much better public services, and public spending, while cutting taxes for big businesses (the Isle of Man is the new model, I see). You cant have both.
So in an attempt to attract people from across the political spectrum, the whole case falls apart with its internal inconsistencies.
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Post by erlend on Jul 16, 2013 8:59:11 GMT
approx. zero But then the sample is only 4000. In which case I get about 20. Based on there being 200-250 LDs in the sample. I guess about 10% of LD voters might vote yes. Actually I would guess similarly for Labour and even Tories so a bit higher. So if the polls say 45% SNP and 55% everyone else, if about 30% of SNP voters vote no and 10% of everyone else vote yes that would give a result of 63:37 for No. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Jul 17, 2013 20:35:14 GMT
The other thing that keeps them motivated is the way the opinion polls "got it wrong" in 2011. Except of course they do no such thing. By early April the Snp were in the lead and gained so that most polls 10 days before poking were very close to the final result. A genuine shift in opinion happened. The SNP looked competent and had the answers, whereas we didn't. I think we can see now that they sent even have the answers for independence.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 20:48:17 GMT
I always thought Curtice's Law was the statutory requirement that he must appear on any programme discussing elections.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 10:39:24 GMT
Why is this thread still going?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 18, 2013 21:16:46 GMT
... however the Conservatives will be fighting Donside to win it ... Maybe not, on that level of expenditure. |
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