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Post by dustymac on Jun 23, 2013 7:26:49 GMT
I don't know it was just a thought.. Would it make a difference? Only a minority of people watch TV hustings - it's much more relevant how many doormats you can get your leaflets to. The TV coverage the Greens got didn't seem to do them much good. That is true! |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jun 23, 2013 21:44:24 GMT
Thanks for that Fraser, I'd say that was a reasonable assessment of the campaign. I agree that this was one of the most bitter and personal campaigns against a candidate I have seen since the 1997 campaign in Exeter, where the local tories deliberately chose the professional homophobe Dr Adrian Rodgers to fight Labour's openly gay Ben Bradshaw.
I used to think I would never see a campaign so bitter as that. Then I moved to Scotland and saw the SNP in action.
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Post by Tangent on Jun 23, 2013 23:05:37 GMT
The SNP are failing badly in promoting the concept of Independence, there sole reason for existing. There is another reason for the SNP to exist: an anti-Labour alternative not tainted with the drawbacks of the two parties now in Coalition. That will probably prove to be more important than independence for the Nats in the long run. They will serve as a repository for Con and LD Scots voters who feel too ashamed to dash votes directly. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 23:53:22 GMT
The SNP are failing badly in promoting the concept of Independence, there sole reason for existing. There is another reason for the SNP to exist: an anti-Labour alternative not tainted with the drawbacks of the two parties now in Coalition. That will probably prove to be more important than independence for the Nats in the long run. They will serve as a repository for Con and LD Scots voters who feel too ashamed to dash votes directly. Then they are little more than a regional Party along the line of those in Italy and Germany and lacking the vibrancy of the Catalans. I also have the feeling that Scotland is on the verge of bankruptcy due to this whole "Representation without Taxation" policy of the Nats. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 0:06:41 GMT
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Post by dustymac on Jun 24, 2013 6:43:42 GMT
Personally I don't think it would of.. This was very much a local by-election with very little national argument.. However it is these kind of revelations that cause such a lack of confidence in politicians. Reading some of the comments on that story and one person made a valid point.. If the Tax payer is paying for part of the house via tax break etc.. Surely they should get at least some of the profit that the house makes when it is sold? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 24, 2013 16:55:02 GMT
One thing I really noticed about the SNP vote was that only around 75-80% of it would say they were voting yes next year in the referendum, so while they may well be celebrating, falling from 55% to 42% does not show the whole picture as to how much the support for independence has fallen the closer we get to the referendum. You got 75-80%? Obviously I was only present for a few days in the campaign, and it was early enough that in most areas people were only just starting to make up their minds, but the percentage of independence-supporting SNP voters I found was much lower than that. Admittedly most of those I met expressing support for the SNP were in Bridge of Don, so some of that may be down to the local issues there. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 21:16:44 GMT
I think this now leaves only Banff and Buchan and the tiny Western Isles, a two party anachronism, as seats where the SNP poll more than 50% of the vote. ( someone please check this factoid, I can't confirm it) If you're referring to 2011, then the SNP polled over 50% in the following constituencies: 67.2% - Banffshire & Buchan Coast 65.3% - Na h-Eileanan an Iar 64.5% - Aberdeenshire East 64.2% - Dundee East 60.8% - Perthshire North 58.8% - Moray 58.5% - Angus South 57.6% - Dundee West 55.4% - Aberdeen Donside 55.3% - Falkirk West 54.8% - Angus North & Mearns 54.4% - Glasgow Southside 54.3% - Almond Valley 53.8% - Cumbernauld & Kilsyth 53.3% - Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley 52.6% - Cunninghame North 52.3% - Mid Fife & Glenrothes 51.5% - Inverness & Nairn 51.5% - Perthshire South & Kinross 50.8% - Falkirk East 50.6% - Argyll & Bute 50.2% - Airdrie & Shotts If you're referring to 2010, then they didn't get over 50% in any seat, though they did in Banff & Buchan in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Of course, in many of the Holyrood seats listed above, the SNP didn't even come close to winning in the equivalent Westminster areas in 2010. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 23:13:04 GMT
Of course Banff and Buchan is one of the BNP's strongest areas.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 23:26:20 GMT
I'm afraid you've lost me there.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 0:27:26 GMT
I'm afraid you've lost me there. At 2.6 percent and with just over a thousand votes Banff and Buchan is one of the BNP's strongest Westminster seats in Scotland. |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jun 25, 2013 11:22:30 GMT
I think that a good comparison of Aberdeen Donside is to the Glasgow Cathcart by-election in 2005.
Both were held in the heartlands of the incumbant party.
Both incumbant parties had been in Government for the last 6 years.
The challenging parties were both lead by new (ish) leaders, eager to demonstrate that they were ready for Government.
In 2005, the SNP got a swing of 3.3% to them from Labour.
18 months later, the SNP won the general election (just).
In 2013, Labour got a swing of 9% to them from the SNP.
There is still 3 years to go.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 13:22:33 GMT
I still can't quite imagine Johann Lamont as First Minister somehow.
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Post by erlend on Jun 25, 2013 14:30:45 GMT
But is it easier to imagine than it was for Ian Gray?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 14:53:38 GMT
Not really, no. I still think that they should never have got rid of Wendy Alexander (or Henry McLeish for that matter, but that's another story).
My view is that Scottish Labour are going to have to find themselves a new leader if they are going to have a strong chance of 'winning' in 2016. They can't afford to simply hope that the SNP will have sufficient problems after the referendum to propel Labour to victory. The problem for them though is that there aren't many obvious alternatives from their current group of MSPs.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 25, 2013 15:11:46 GMT
Agree about Wendy, tbh - maybe you should ask a certain Dr J G Brown about that one.....
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 25, 2013 15:16:07 GMT
Wendy Alexander was once branch secretary of my branch, when I was branch chair.
I still wonder why a dispute over a donation of about £1,000 should be enough to terminate involuntarily a party leadership. We seem to have an immense ability in this country to manufacture bogus scandals.
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libfozzy
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Post by libfozzy on Jun 25, 2013 15:37:27 GMT
I still can't quite imagine Johann Lamont as First Minister somehow. ^^This. Times a billion. And there's not really anyone else in Labour's Scottish Parliament mob who I reckon is better. They're a pretty crap lot really. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 19:19:35 GMT
Wendy is no longer even in Parliament, which to me indicates that her heart was not really all that in it. Johann Lamont may be an over promoted School board chair, but her heart is in it. She represents the mainstream of the Scottish working class Labour electorate and activist base. I think she will be a truly appalling First Minister. But unlike Wendy, she will be First Minister. I'm not convinced. Sure, if the referendum is lost (tame your hubris, stranger things have happened) and the SNP descend into infighting it presents the perfect set of circumstances for Labour to win. These things won't necessarily happen, Scottish Labour as it is doesn't seem to have righted itself yet and still doesn't seem very sure where it's going. 2016 will be an interesting election. Rather depressingly whether SNP or Labour win in 2016 they'll likely be informally relying on the Conservatives for support  |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jun 26, 2013 9:30:06 GMT
Rather depressingly whether SNP or Labour win in 2016 they'll likely be informally relying on the Conservatives for support You know thats not what I'd like to see happen, but its hardly the fault of Scottish Labour. I agree however that we are finding it difficult to get anything that has traction with voters at the moment. The referendum is something to talk about - and is something the majority of people agree with us on. I'm not sure its inspiring enough to see us through to victory in 2016. Having said that, theres 3 years to go, and internally the party is more united now than we were in 2011. |
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