YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Sept 11, 2023 11:33:37 GMT
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Post by afleitch on Sept 11, 2023 13:54:54 GMT
Interesting Wimbledon result with Ben Walker.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 11, 2023 18:21:56 GMT
A seat like Ceredigion, Preseli is a perfect example of why we should wait for Thrasher and Rallings
Electoral Calculus: Plaid win by 1,202
New Statesman: Plaid win by 900
Bjorn Hatten: Conservative win by 17
Can't we all just be a little bit patient?
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Post by johnloony on Sept 11, 2023 19:05:06 GMT
A seat like Ceredigion, Preseli is a perfect example of why we should wait for Thrasher and Rallings Electoral Calculus: Plaid win by 1,202 New Statesman: Plaid win by 900 Bjorn Hatten: Conservative win by 17 Can't we all just be a little bit patient? Methinks the name hath no comma |
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 11, 2023 19:17:33 GMT
A seat like Ceredigion, Preseli is a perfect example of why we should wait for Thrasher and Rallings Electoral Calculus: Plaid win by 1,202 New Statesman: Plaid win by 900 Bjorn Hatten: Conservative win by 17 Can't we all just be a little bit patient? That is an infinitely superior name to my actual forename and surname! On a more serious note, Baxter and Walker are far more likely to have got a decent estimate for Ceredigion Preseli than I would be - my model did not include proportion of Welsh speakers making it pretty useless for predicting Plaid support (it wasn't totally useless as it could pick up on variables that correlate with Welsh speaking such as national identity and age/class). When I produce estimates for the final boundaries (using 2021 census data), I will likely focus on England only, at least at first. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
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Post by nyx on Sept 11, 2023 22:05:44 GMT
Anyone got a list of seats with their notional result in question/not immediately obvious? E.g. in Wales I think it's just Aberconwy (Lab vs Con), Alyn/Deeside (Lab Vs Con), Carmarthen (Plaid Vs Con), and Ceredigion (Plaid Vs Con)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 11, 2023 22:15:23 GMT
Anyone got a list of seats with their notional result in question/not immediately obvious? E.g. in Wales I think it's just Aberconwy (Lab vs Con), Alyn/Deeside (Lab Vs Con), Carmarthen (Plaid Vs Con), and Ceredigion (Plaid Vs Con) Not a comprehensice list. My own figures have narrow Cosnervative leads in Beckenham, Kensington and Wimbledon as does electoral caclulus. Ben Walker has narrow Lab/LD leads in those seats. Wolverhampton SE seems to be contentious - I have it as Conservative, the others as Labour. I didn't think the changes in Bedford would be large enough to make a difference but ben walker has it as Conservative (obviously the current Labour majority is tiny). I think we all concur elsewhere |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 11, 2023 22:21:13 GMT
Here are all the seats in Ben Walker's notionals with a majority of less than 2%
Bangor Aberconwy - Con by 0.006%
Bridgend - Lab by 0.38%
Bolton North East - Con by 0.39%
Coventry North West - Lab by 0.40%
Bedford - Con by 0.41%
Chingford and Woodford Green - Con by 0.86%
Wimbledon - LD by 1.10%
High Peak - Con by 1.13%
Leeds North West - Con by 1.28%
Warwick and Leamington - Lab by 1.30%
Carshalton and Wallington - Con by 1.34%
Ceredigion Preseli - PC by 1.39%
Beckenham and Penge - Lab by 1.49%
Alyn and Deeside - Lab by 1.60%
Wirral West - Lab by 1.66%
Warrington South - Con by 1.76%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Lab by 1.77%
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 12, 2023 6:19:12 GMT
I'm being moved into Bolton North East so I look forward to being deluged with leaflets. It would make a change from the last few general elections.
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 12, 2023 6:32:10 GMT
I'm being moved into Bolton North East so I look forward to being deluged with leaflets. It would make a change from the last few general elections. From Bolton SE? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Sept 12, 2023 6:59:18 GMT
Anyone got a list of seats with their notional result in question/not immediately obvious? E.g. in Wales I think it's just Aberconwy (Lab vs Con), Alyn/Deeside (Lab Vs Con), Carmarthen (Plaid Vs Con), and Ceredigion (Plaid Vs Con) Not a comprehensice list. My own figures have narrow Cosnervative leads in Beckenham, Kensington and Wimbledon as does electoral caclulus. Ben Walker has narrow Lab/LD leads in those seats. Wolverhampton SE seems to be contentious - I have it as Conservative, the others as Labour. I didn't think the changes in Bedford would be large enough to make a difference but ben walker has it as Conservative (obviously the current Labour majority is tiny). I think we all concur elsewhere If the available ward level figures for Walsall and Wolverhampton are accurate then the Tories did narrowly carry the new Wolverhampton SE. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,451
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Post by iain on Sept 12, 2023 7:53:28 GMT
Having seen various box counts in Wimbledon and Kingston, I am pretty certain that the new Wimbledon seat should be notionally Lib Dem.
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Post by Ben Walker on Sept 12, 2023 8:42:59 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,451
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Post by iain on Sept 12, 2023 9:00:54 GMT
You will probably be interested to see the results in Walsall and Wolverhampton which have been publicly released by ward (I imagine Pete Whitehead may have a copy to hand). |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 12, 2023 11:01:36 GMT
Is there a blank version of the new boundaries that I can colour in with my own version?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 12, 2023 11:08:10 GMT
Is there a blank version of the new boundaries that I can colour in with my own version? Fixed EDIT. Version 4  Again, if you spot anything else let me know. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 747
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Post by Clark on Sept 12, 2023 18:30:23 GMT
Thanks to Ben for sharing those 2019 ward projections.
It has the Conservatives carrying every ward in Bolsover apart from Shirebrook North (and only just).
I'm surprised by this.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Sept 12, 2023 18:55:15 GMT
Thanks to Ben for sharing those 2019 ward projections. It has the Conservatives carrying every ward in Bolsover apart from Shirebrook North (and only just). I'm surprised by this. Ben’s model seems to produce a fairly even vote distribution within a constituency. I think it’s probably too even in most cases, but tbf 2019 seems to have seen a much flatter than usual vote for the major 2 parties in places like Bolsover. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,142
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Post by Foggy on Sept 12, 2023 23:26:10 GMT
In 2010 I remember finding a website which said living in Arfon gave me the strongest voting power of anywhere in the country, because it had the smallest electorate of any mainland seat and because even though Hywel Williams was already MP for Caernarfon, the new version of the constituency had a notional Labour majority of under 100, making it an ultra-marginal.
Obviously the former is no longer a factor, whilst the latter ignored the fact that I didn't want to vote for either Team Red or a separatist (and still don't).
Now if Ben's notionals are correct, I'll be living in a seat with a notional Conservative majority of three votes! Already had a questionnaire through from Robin Millar, asking if something he promised the Tories would fix if they won in his 2010 leaflet should now, in 2023, finally be a priority for the government.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 13, 2023 8:44:57 GMT
Is there a blank version of the new boundaries that I can colour in with my own version? Fixed EDIT. Version 4 Again, if you spot anything else let me know. Could I ask what the fainter lines are please? |
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