The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2023 10:21:54 GMT
Electoral Calculus have said their notionals are available for download, at a cost of £2,500! I wonder how many are actually going to pay that much. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 16, 2023 10:22:15 GMT
Electoral Calculus have said their notionals are available for download, at a cost of £2,500! That was expectable. Remains the hope, that anyone will type or copy&paste them. (But don't speculate, that i, who has to do the numberCrunching for International Elections alone and has anyWay as ignorant foreigner little benefit from notionals, has the time to do that once again!) The issue is that they don't even release their notional figures on the constituency pages - just a "projected" result. To make matters worse, while you can enter the last election's figures as a prediction and ask it to give a table of results of the new boundaries, the figures that come out make no sense as notional results (not least because the by-elections seem to have been factored in - meaning Hartlepool is predicted to be the safest Conservative seat in the NE). I don't particularly begrudge Baxter; he essentially has my dream job after all! But I don't think it'd be possible to get his notionals - not without a lot of reverse engineering anyway. And knowing the quality of his results in the past, I wouldn't expect them to be much more accurate than mine (and would expect them to be significantly worse than Ben Walker's or Pete Whitehead's). |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 747
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Post by Clark on Sept 16, 2023 11:19:57 GMT
Election Calculus are a joke - they don't even take into account tactical voting and just do each seat based on the current polls
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Sept 16, 2023 11:23:19 GMT
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Post by jm on Sept 16, 2023 15:02:29 GMT
Just out of interest, I asked Electoral Calculus for the details of their MRP projection for a single ward prior to the 2023 locals and they quoted £100 (yes, for one ward)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 16, 2023 15:16:03 GMT
Just out of interest, I asked Electoral Calculus for the details of their MRP projection for a single ward prior to the 2023 locals and they quoted £100 (yes, for one ward) I asked them for their projection of Ceredigion (which they had as NOC for 2022) and was told "We did not project Ceredigion" |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,867
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 16, 2023 22:07:32 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 16, 2023 22:38:52 GMT
I would assume: Reading West and Mid Berkshire, North Northumberland, Dorking and Horley, Bridlington and the Wolds, and Sussex Weald, respectively. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 26, 2023 15:51:43 GMT
Electoral Calculus have said their notionals are available for download, at a cost of £2,500! I wonder how many are actually going to pay that much. Maybe we could all chip in 20 quid and get a set for the forum...? On a serious note, fair play to Ben Walker, Pete Whitehead and bjornhattan for making their figures available without charge - there must have been a lot of work involved in creating these and it is much appreciated. Quick question for Ben Walker - your spreadsheet has Brexit Party lumped in with "Others" - would it be possible to create a version that has them as a separate column? Many thanks. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 26, 2023 16:56:39 GMT
I wonder how many are actually going to pay that much. Maybe we could all chip in 20 quid and get a set for the forum...? On a serious note, fair play to Ben Walker, Pete Whitehead and bjornhattan for making their figures available without charge - there must have been a lot of work involved in creating these and it is much appreciated. Quick question for Ben Walker - your spreadsheet has Brexit Party lumped in with "Others" - would it be possible to create a version that has them as a separate column? Many thanks. I don't think the work required would be that great if solely producing notional results. In most cases any given constituency need only be divided into two or three elements. I could quite quickly produce notional results for a small county like Shropshire if that is all I was doing. But that has never been my main objective. I like to look at how all wards will have voted and therefore I produce detailed ward results for a constituency and I also like to do it as far back as the 1970s, which multiplies the workload compared with doing it for a single election. That obviously is a lot more time consuming but I do it for my own amusement, so it is time well spent. When there are parliamentary bouncary changes I am therefore able to produce notional results from the ward data, but like marmite, they are a happy by-product rather than the main purpose (although in the case of brewing, I tend to prefer the by-product these days..) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 13, 2023 16:46:01 GMT
On Times Radio this morning, Prof John Curtice said that the 'official' BBC/ITN/Sky News estimates of notional 2019 results for new boundaries will be coming out shortly after the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire byelections.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 29, 2023 10:13:59 GMT
On Times Radio this morning, Prof John Curtice said that the 'official' BBC/ITN/Sky News estimates of notional 2019 results for new boundaries will be coming out shortly after the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire byelections. Question: How shortly is shortly? |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2023 14:27:36 GMT
Hanretty 2016 estimates updated for the new boundaries.
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Post by rcronald on Nov 3, 2023 14:49:03 GMT
Hanretty 2016 estimates updated for the new boundaries. The new Ilford North estimate seems strange, surely Leave didn't win? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 3, 2023 14:55:04 GMT
Hanretty 2016 estimates updated for the new boundaries. The new Ilford North estimate seems strange, surely Leave didn't win? Sure why not? |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 3, 2023 14:58:51 GMT
The new Ilford North estimate seems strange, surely Leave didn't win? Sure why not? Weren't Cranbrook and Valentines more REMAIN leaning than Bridge? (and Leave only narrowly won the original constituency) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 3, 2023 15:05:36 GMT
Weren't Cranbrook and Valentines more REMAIN leaning than Bridge? (and Leave only narrowly won the original constituency) The figure was 53.3% on the old boundaries, down to 51.6% on the new. So yes that would be accounted for by swapping Bridge for those areas. Also loses some Remainy parts of South Woodford as well though. Remember that Asian voters in areas like this were not at all overwhelming for Remain (if at all). Obviously Hainault and Fairlop will have delivered a heavy Leave margin which accounts for the small Leave margin overall. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 3, 2023 15:17:46 GMT
Weren't Cranbrook and Valentines more REMAIN leaning than Bridge? (and Leave only narrowly won the original constituency) The figure was 53.3% on the old boundaries, down to 51.6% on the new. So yes that would be accounted for by swapping Bridge for those areas. Also loses some Remainy parts of South Woodford as well though. Remember that Asian voters in areas like this were not at all overwhelming for Remain (if at all). Obviously Hainault and Fairlop will have delivered a heavy Leave margin which accounts for the small Leave margin overall. Oh, for some reason I thought the old boundaries were 51.5% leave. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Nov 3, 2023 17:57:42 GMT
I’m sceptical that the new Blaydon and Consett constituency was less than 54%, but it has Gateshead and Whickham at less than 55% Leave as well (Gateshead borough voted 57% Leave). Birtley and Felling must be very Leave voting for all this to do up.
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Post by rcronald on Nov 3, 2023 19:05:34 GMT
23.9% Leave vote in Greenwich and Woolwich also seems low.
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