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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 9:05:20 GMT
Could I ask what the fainter lines are please? They are the county boundaries in those constituencies which cross them (or the UA boundaries in Scotland and Wales) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 13, 2023 10:28:37 GMT
I could create one using Ben Walker's spreadsheet, but is there a target list online anywhere of seats ranked by the swing required, to save me the job of doing it myself?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 14, 2023 9:23:18 GMT
I could create one using Ben Walker's spreadsheet, but is there a target list online anywhere of seats ranked by the swing required, to save me the job of doing it myself? It looks like this spreadsheet is sorted by majority anyway (lowest first) so its only a case of separating out those that are Labour targets, those that are Lib Dem targets etc docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bWaGoHwlID3jZc254zbQl-2f6jXsIhL-8c64xoE0LWY/edit#gid=0 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 14, 2023 10:25:41 GMT
There seems to be an error re: Brentwood & Ongar on that spreadsheet - I noticed as it appears to have the highest Conservative share at 76.6%
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 14, 2023 10:38:50 GMT
There seems to be an error re: Brentwood & Ongar on that spreadsheet - I noticed as it appears to have the highest Conservative share at 76.6% Looks to be a typo in the Lib Dem vote - instead of 7,187 it's clearly been recorded as roughly 1,700. It's also visible in the ward breakdowns where even areas like Pilgrims Hatch and Shenfield (respectively the locally and demographically strongest areas for the Lib Dems) see Lib Dem vote shares in mid single figures rather than the twenties that you'd probably expect. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2023 11:23:58 GMT
I recall the good old days of typos like that in the "official" instant GE results in the papers. They sometimes didn't get corrected for weeks or even months.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2023 15:47:35 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2023 15:52:45 GMT
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 14, 2023 16:04:22 GMT
I think some of his ward figures for seats in Wales are wide of the mark - perhaps because in some areas Local Elections are dominated by Independents with relatively few party labels being worn by candidates. In Pembrokeshire he has the Tories ahead in wards in Pembroke Dock, Milford Haven and Neyland - very unlikely as these are traditionally strong for Labour. Similarly he has the Tories ahead in Carmarthenshire in the wards of Carmarhen Town - again that is very unlikely to be true. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2023 17:15:35 GMT
I could create one using Ben Walker's spreadsheet, but is there a target list online anywhere of seats ranked by the swing required, to save me the job of doing it myself? I am presently calculating the voteSums per constituency of Ben Walker's wardNumbers (have finished "A" - yeah, most is done...) and will make targetLists, too. For spreadSheets comparing all 4 notionals we would need the numbers of - Pete Whitehead : Releasing them - even, when not including all const. - would be very appreciated! - Electoral Calculus : Can anyone get them in a workable format a la EXCEL, please? EDIT: But please type the voteNumbers without commas at the thousandsPlace (so not "1,000" - rather "1000" or "1.000"). |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Sept 14, 2023 19:39:23 GMT
In Ben's ward summary he has the Moreton & Fyfield ward (Brentwood & Ongar) with the highest Tory share at whopping 85.9% and High Ongar next door at 85.3%.
Some of the coastal / rural wards to the south of Skegness are also above 80% share.
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Post by afleitch on Sept 15, 2023 10:55:42 GMT
Thanks to Ben for sharing those 2019 ward projections. It has the Conservatives carrying every ward in Bolsover apart from Shirebrook North (and only just). I'm surprised by this. Ben’s model seems to produce a fairly even vote distribution within a constituency. I think it’s probably too even in most cases, but tbf 2019 seems to have seen a much flatter than usual vote for the major 2 parties in places like Bolsover. That's borne out by the relatively few examples of ward data for higher tier elections we have, notably the GLA elections and the 2007 Holyrood, which I've looked at extensively. While there are local and demographic fluctuations in any given seat, votes are more 'even' across a constituency than using local election data (in Holyrood 2007, held on the same day) would imply if you used them as the basis for calculation. Simply because the votes being cast aren't truly 'local'. With constituency counts for Scottish and Welsh electoral Regions v actual FPTP constituency results, you see a similar effect. Not to say that local partisan (rather than demographic) patterns don't matter and you can rely on pure demographic regression. Dorling et al noted that back in the mid 90's IIRC when they took an alternate approach to creating notionals. What Ben has done, in getting samples of returns/canvassing, is accounting for that variable in a way that hasn't been done before. |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Sept 15, 2023 21:05:34 GMT
I recall the good old days of typos like that in the "official" instant GE results in the papers. They sometimes didn't get corrected for weeks or even months. this reminds me of an election in the 70s (might be 79) where one of the Conservative seats in Scotland had a ridiculously low poll and David Dimbleby noted it was extraordinary but didn't seem to think it was faulty |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 15, 2023 21:17:36 GMT
I recall the good old days of typos like that in the "official" instant GE results in the papers. They sometimes didn't get corrected for weeks or even months. this reminds me of an election in the 70s (might be 79) where one of the Conservative seats in Scotland had a ridiculously low poll and David Dimbleby noted it was extraordinary but didn't seem to think it was faulty On that occasion the Conservative vote was wrongly reported as 2,xxx instead of 20,xxx but I think they were focusing on noticing the high number of votes for the SNP rather than the low number for the Conservative. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2023 23:48:57 GMT
Mr. Ben Walker's voteNumbers per constituency are typed into EXCEL, but when trying to compare His numbers to those of bjornhattan i had to see, that the two used different const.names - can anyone tell me, which belong to each other, please:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2023 23:54:07 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 16, 2023 0:00:02 GMT
Mr. Ben Walker's voteNumbers per constituency are typed into EXCEL, but when trying to compare His numbers to those of bjornhattan i had to see, that the two used different const.names - can anyone tell me, which belong to each other, please:  Edit -Wembley is Brent West and Willesden Brent East, obviously.. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 16, 2023 1:25:30 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 16, 2023 8:04:10 GMT
I could create one using Ben Walker's spreadsheet, but is there a target list online anywhere of seats ranked by the swing required, to save me the job of doing it myself? I am presently calculating the voteSums per constituency of Ben Walker's wardNumbers (have finished "A" - yeah, most is done...) and will make targetLists, too. For spreadSheets comparing all 4 notionals we would need the numbers of - Pete Whitehead : Releasing them - even, when not including all const. - would be very appreciated! - Electoral Calculus : Can anyone get them in a workable format a la EXCEL, please? EDIT: But please type the voteNumbers without commas at the thousandsPlace (so not "1,000" - rather "1000" or "1.000"). Electoral Calculus have said their notionals are available for download, at a cost of £2,500! |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 16, 2023 9:48:07 GMT
I am presently calculating the voteSums per constituency of Ben Walker's wardNumbers (have finished "A" - yeah, most is done...) and will make targetLists, too. For spreadSheets comparing all 4 notionals we would need the numbers of - Pete Whitehead : Releasing them - even, when not including all const. - would be very appreciated! - Electoral Calculus : Can anyone get them in a workable format a la EXCEL, please? EDIT: But please type the voteNumbers without commas at the thousandsPlace (so not "1,000" - rather "1000" or "1.000"). Electoral Calculus have said their notionals are available for download, at a cost of £2,500! That was expectable. Remains the hope, that anyone will type or copy&paste them. (But don't speculate, that i, who has to do the numberCrunching for International Elections alone and has anyWay as ignorant foreigner little benefit from notionals, has the time to do that once again!) |
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