Prediction Competition - September 2023

[kevinf]

Highland
SNP 27, Ind 23, LD 20, Con 19, Lab 5, Green 5.7, Libtarian 0.3
N Yorks
LD 48, Con 41, Yorks 6, Green 5
S Norfolk Mulbarton
LD 41, Con 35, Lab 12, Ind 7, Green 5
S Norfolk S Wymondham
LD 43, Con 25, Lab 22, Green 10
Wolverhampton
Lab 60, LD 20, Con 15, Green 5

[Toylyyev]

HIGHLAND UA, Tain & Easter Ross:
Conservative 9.5, Labour 2.7, Liberal Democrat 18, Green 3.5, SNP 21, Scottish Libertarian 0.3, Independent 45. Independent win on transfers.

NORTH YORKSHIRE UA, Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley:
Conservative 39.9, Liberal Democrat 40, Green 19, Yorkshire Party 1.1.

SOUTH NORFOLK DC, Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross:
Conservative 26.5, Labour 13.5, Liberal Democrat 34, Green 6.5, No Description 19.5.
South Wymondham:
Conservative 31.5, Labour 26.5, Liberal Democrat 37, Green 5.

WOLVERHAMPTON MBC, Bushbury South & Low Hill:
Conservative 23, Labour 58, Liberal Democrat 13, Green 6.

[johnloony]

Highland LD 36 SNP 27 Ind 16 Con 8 Lab 8 Grn 4 Lbn 1
NYorks LD 44 Con 37 Grn 13 Y 6
SNorfolk MSHC LD 43 Con 21 (-) 13 Lab 11 Grn 12
SNorfolk SWymondham LD 43 Con 21 Lab 21 Grn 15
Woolly Vampton Lab 55 Con 18 LD 18 Grn 9

[batman]

HIGHLAND, Tain & Easter Ross : LD 33 SNP 30 Ind 19 C 7 Lab 7 Green 3 Libertarian 1. LD win

N.YORKSHIRE, Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley : LD 45 C 43 Green 8 Yorks 4

S.NORFOLK, Mulbarton & Holy Cross : LD 44 C 29 Lab 12 Legg 10 Green 5

S.NORFOLK, S.Wymondham : LD 45 Lab 24 C 23 Green 8

WOLVERHAMPTON, Bushbury S. & Low Hill : Lab 60 C 21 LD 13 Green 6

[andrewp]

Highland. Tain and Easter Ross Ind 30 SNP 26 LD 23 Con 9, Lab 7.5 Green 4 Lib 0.5. Ind win
North Yorkshire. Hutton, Rudby and Osmotherley. Con 45, LD 42, Green 9, YP 4
South Norfolk, Mulbarton and Stoke Cross. LD 44 Ind 21 Con 17 Green 10 Lab 8
South Norfolk, South Wymondham, LD 44, Con 24 Lab 19 Green 13
Wolverhampton. Bushbury South and Low Hill. Lab 66, Con 19, LD 10. Green 5

[peterl]

Highland. Tain and Easter Ross Ind 32 LD 27 SNP 22 Con 8, Lab 6 Green 4 Lib 1. Ind win
North Yorkshire. Hutton, Rudby and Osmotherley. LD 46, Con 42, Green 8, YP 4
South Norfolk, Mulbarton and Stoke Cross. LD 42 Ind 26 Green 14 Con 12 Lab 6
South Norfolk, South Wymondham, LD 45, Lab 22, Con 18, Green 15
Wolverhampton. Bushbury South and Low Hill. Lab 62, Con 20, LD 12 Green 6

[manchesterman]

Highland: Ind 29, SNP 27, LD 25, Con 9, Lab 5.2, Green 4, Libertarian 0.8 IND win on transfers

N Yorks: LD 45, Con 38, Green 12, Yorks 5

S Norfolk Mulbarton: LD 41, Con 25, Ind 17, Lab 11, Green 6

S Norfolk S Wymondham: LD 45, Con 25, Lab 20, Green 10

Wolverhampton: Lab 52, LD 20, Con 20, Green 8

[Robert Waller]

Highland: Ind 28, SNP 26, LD 24, Con 10, Lab 6, Green 5, Libertarian 1 IND win on transfers

N Yorks: LD 48, Con 42, Green 6, Yorks 4

S Norfolk Mulbarton: LD 47, Con 21, Ind 15, Lab 12, Green 5

S Norfolk S Wymondham: LD 50, Con 22, Lab 22, Green 6

Wolverhampton: Lab 65, LD 16, Con 15, Green 4

[yellowperil]

Highland, Tain & Easter Ross: Con 8, Lab 8, LD 25, GP3, SNP 26, Libt 0.5, Ind 29.5. Ind to win on transfers.
North Yorks, Hutton Rudby, etc: Con 40, LD 45, GP10, Yorks 5.
South Norfolk, Mulbarton, etc: Con 19, Lab 8, LD 47, GP 8, Ind 18.
South Norfolk, S Wymondham: Con 24, Lab 19, LD 44, GP 13.
Wolverhampton, Bushbury S etc: Con 18, Lab 58, LD 18, GP 6 
 

[corradino]

Highland, Tain & Easter Ross: LD 30, SNP 25, Ind 21, Lab 9.6, Con 8, Green 6, Libertarian 0.4. LD slither through on transfers.

N. Yorks, Hutton, Rudby & Osmotherley: LD 43, Con 42, Green 10, YP 5.

S. Norfolk, Mulbarton: LD 45, Con 22, Lab 14, Legg (Ind) 14, Green 5.

S. Norfolk, S. Wymondham: LD 45, Con 25, Lab 25, Green 5.

Wolverhampton, Bushbury South: Lab 60, Con 19, LD 12, Green 9.

[iainbhx]

Highland SUA, Tain & Easter Ross: Ind 30 LDm 26 SNP 25 Lab 8 Con 7 Grn 3.5 ScotLib 0.5 - Ind win on transfers
North Yorkshire UA, Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley: LDm 43 Con 39 Grn 12 Yrk 6
South Norfolk DC, Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross: LDm 40 Con 20 ND Legg 16 Grn 14 Lab 10
South Norfolk DC, South Wymondham: LDm 43 Lab 24 Con 23 Grn 10
Wolverhampton MBC, Bushbury South & Low Hill: Lab 60 Con 22 LDm 13 Grn 5

[rightleaning]

Highland. Tain and Easter Ross Ind 34, LD 26, SNP 21, Con 9, Lab 6, Green 3, Lib 1. Ind win
North Yorkshire. Hutton, Rudby and Osmotherley. LD 48, Con 42, Green 7, YP 3
South Norfolk, Mulbarton and Stoke Cross. LD 42, Con 22, Ind 16, Green 14, Lab 6
South Norfolk, South Wymondham, LD 45, Con 24, Lab 20, Green 11
Wolverhampton. Bushbury South and Low Hill. Lab 58, Con 24, LD 10 Green 8

[ClevelandYorks]

Tain & Easter Ross, Highland: LIB DEM 29, IND 26, SNP 25, CON 8, GREEN 6, LAB 5, LIBERTARIAN 1
Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley, N Yorks: LIB DEM 52, CON 40, GREEN 5, YORKS 3
Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross, S Norfolk: LIB DEM 42, NO DESC 36, CON 12, LAB 6, GREEN 4
South Wymondham, S Norfolk: LIB DEM 48, CON 22, LAB 21, GREEN 9
Bushbury South & Low Hill, Wolverhampton: LAB 71, CON 16, LIB DEM 8, GREEN 5

[robbienicoll]

14 full entries and one partial from ntyuk1707 to close the month, with bluelabour coming in and Richard Cromwell missing. All on time and correct.

Tain and Easter Ross, Highland: 9 Independent (Ross) ahead on first preferences and gain from Liberal Democrat after transfers, with batman, bluelabour, corradino and johnloony Liberal Democrats ahead on firsts and hold after transfers, ntyuk1707 SNP ahead on firsts and Independent gain after transfers and kevinf SNP ahead on firsts and gain after transfers.

Hutton Rudby and Osmotherley, North Yorkshire: 13 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev) to 12% (bluelabour). Andrewp Conservative hold with 2% majority.

Mulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross, South Norfolk: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (bluelabour and kevinf) to 28% (yellowperil).

South Wymondham, South Norfolk: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 5.5% (Toylyyev) to 28% (Robert Waller).

Bushbury South and Low Hill, Wolverhampton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 32% (manchesterman) to 55% (bluelabour).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xmnDH463bxh1wTAPCJNv4p8u8s4px2aYsLdYH_RxC1U/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Toylyyev]

Previous results write out for next week's by-elections. Both Haringey polls are scheduled for next Wednesday.

HARINGEY LBC, South Tottenham:
  Federalist Party F
              TUSC T
       Independent I
Socialist Alliance s
                                 1501
 22 TG:18 14 10 06 02 SS:18 14 10 09 06 02
---    --------------    -----------------
 15    [phone]    13 12 21 35 28 14
 64    73 65 59 51 51    68 63 56 37 47 56
 >5    -7 -7 18 15 10    +4 [phone]
 16    [phone]    13 15 +8  6 13 12
      F+1T 8I 5 <4 -8   T<4 <6   I>1   s+9
                  s 7

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165654.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2018/haringey18s.svgz
Eastern thirds of the former Tottenham Green and Seven Sisters wards, plus the southern tip of former Tottenham Hale. Their tallies might differ from the displayed ward results. Estimated ward fractions here and below refer to electorate not area.

White Hart Lane:
                 Independent I
Democrats and Veterans Party V
                        UKIP K
                        TUSC T
          Socialist Alliance s
                         1709 0209
 22 | 18 14 10 06 02  W:18 15 14 14 10 06 02
----|---------------    --------------------
 12 | 10 10 23 27 34    >8  7  6 >7 12 <9 17
 59 | 78 57 54 52 48    67 62 56 58 47 45 57
 -9 |  4 <6 15 11  8    15 21 20 12 35 38 20
 -- | <7 -8 >6 +9 11     9 <6  8 10 +6 -9 --
 --  V>1K13            V 1K-5 <7 <8      s-7
 --     T<7                  T+1  3
I21                            1 <2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165551.html
Gains the south eastern third of the old Woodside ward, but loses its own former eastern and north eastern part, i.e. about 40%. The old Woodside had lower Conservative and higher LibDem scores but never enough to gain a seat. Unsure how representative the ward results are for its south eastern part.

--

LAMBETH LBC, Vauxhall:
                             UKIP K
                             TUSC T
                              EDP E
Local Education Action by Parents P
               Socialist Alliance a
           Women's Equality Party W
                 Federalist Party F
                       Left Unity U
                  Socialist Party s
                      Independent I
                           0705     0406
 22  O:18 14 10 06 02  P:18 15 14 10 09 06 02
---    --------------    --------------------
 16    11 12 17 13 >8    12 20 16 19 17 15  8
 56    47 49 38 27 25    55 44 50 48 41 45 38
 12    30 18 36 37 51    13 23 >9 23 33 23 45
 17    11 11 >8 14 11    10 12 11 <8 -8 14 +8
         K-8E>1 -4 --   K 2 -- -8E 2 >2 --
         T+2   P>6a<5   W-8U>1I>4      P>4
	                F-1s-1T>2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165751.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2018/lambeth18s.svgz
West and north west of the former Oval ward, taking in about a quarter of the old ward built-up area, but has quite a few high rise buildings. Plus south east of the former Prince's ward, again about a quarter of it. Buildings grow higher towards the river there too. No warranty on the meaningfulness of the old ward results.

--

TAMWORTH DC, Amington:
       UKIP K
Independent I
 23 22 21 19 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 08 07 06 04 03 02
---------------------------------------------------
 51 54 60 48 49 40 40 36 53 44 50 49 43 57 47 45 43
 49 46 30 26 40 33 30 40 47 56 40 37 39 43 34 40 41
       -- -- -- -- -- --       11 --       19 15 16
       >5 +6 -4 -- -6 --          --
      K>4 20 <7 27 24 24         I14 18

--

→ Shares in multi-seat elections are calculated with the averages method.
→ Single digit shares are split up into 0.2 increments with a bit of <,>,- and + character ascii art. No character to the right of the digit means a value within an [-.1,.1] offset, < and > a value within an [-.1,-.3] and [.1,.3] offset and - and + a value within an [-.3,-.5] and [.3,.5] offset.
→ For boundary changes, the number of |s below the horizontal dashed line discriminates between 4 classes of changes. 1 for no recognizable difference, 2 for marginal changes, 3 for changes small enough to yield comparable results and 4 four otherwise.

[johnloony]

Sept 29, 2023 1:59:38 GMT Toylyyev said:

Previous results write out for next week's by-elections. Both Haringey polls are scheduled for next Wednesday.

HARINGEY LBC, South Tottenham:
  Federalist Party F
              TUSC T
       Independent I
Socialist Alliance s
                                 1501
 22 TG:18 14 10 06 02 SS:18 14 10 09 06 02
---    --------------    -----------------
 15    [phone]    13 12 21 35 28 14
 64    73 65 59 51 51    68 63 56 37 47 56
 >5    -7 -7 18 15 10    +4 [phone]
 16    [phone]    13 15 +8  6 13 12
      F+1T 8I 5 <4 -8   T<4 <6   I>1   s+9
                  s 7

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165654.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2018/haringey18s.svgz
Eastern thirds of the former Tottenham Green and Seven Sisters wards, plus the southern tip of former Tottenham Hale. Their tallies might differ from the displayed ward results. Estimated ward fractions here and below refer to electorate not area.

White Hart Lane:
                 Independent I
Democrats and Veterans Party V
                        UKIP K
                        TUSC T
          Socialist Alliance s
                         1709 0209
 22 | 18 14 10 06 02  W:18 15 14 14 10 06 02
----|---------------    --------------------
 12 | 10 10 23 27 34    >8  7  6 >7 12 <9 17
 59 | 78 57 54 52 48    67 62 56 58 47 45 57
 -9 |  4 <6 15 11  8    15 21 20 12 35 38 20
 -- | <7 -8 >6 +9 11     9 <6  8 10 +6 -9 --
 --  V>1K13            V 1K-5 <7 <8      s-7
 --     T<7                  T+1  3
I21                            1 <2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165551.html
Gains the south eastern third of the old Woodside ward, but loses its own former eastern and north eastern part, i.e. about 40%. The old Woodside had lower Conservative and higher LibDem scores but never enough to gain a seat. Unsure how representative the ward results are for its south eastern part.

--

LAMBETH LBC, Vauxhall:
                             UKIP K
                             TUSC T
                              EDP E
Local Education Action by Parents P
               Socialist Alliance a
           Women's Equality Party W
                 Federalist Party F
                       Left Unity U
                  Socialist Party s
                      Independent I
                           0705     0406
 22  O:18 14 10 06 02  P:18 15 14 10 09 06 02
---    --------------    --------------------
 16    11 12 17 13 >8    12 20 16 19 17 15  8
 56    47 49 38 27 25    55 44 50 48 41 45 38
 12    30 18 36 37 51    13 23 >9 23 33 23 45
 17    11 11 >8 14 11    10 12 11 <8 -8 14 +8
         K-8E>1 -4 --   K 2 -- -8E 2 >2 --
         T+2   P>6a<5   W-8U>1I>4      P>4
	                F-1s-1T>2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165751.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2018/lambeth18s.svgz
West and north west of the former Oval ward, taking in about a quarter of the old ward built-up area, but has quite a few high rise buildings. Plus south east of the former Prince's ward, again about a quarter of it. Buildings grow higher towards the river there too. No warranty on the meaningfulness of the old ward results.

--

TAMWORTH DC, Amington:
       UKIP K
Independent I
 23 22 21 19 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 08 07 06 04 03 02
---------------------------------------------------
 51 54 60 48 49 40 40 36 53 44 50 49 43 57 47 45 43
 49 46 30 26 40 33 30 40 47 56 40 37 39 43 34 40 41
       -- -- -- -- -- --       11 --       19 15 16
       >5 +6 -4 -- -6 --          --
      K>4 20 <7 27 24 24         I14 18

--

→ Shares in multi-seat elections are calculated with the averages method.
→ Single digit shares are split up into 0.2 increments with a bit of <,>,- and + character ascii art. No character to the right of the digit means a value within an [-.1,.1] offset, < and > a value within an [-.1,-.3] and [.1,.3] offset and - and + a value within an [-.3,-.5] and [.3,.5] offset.
→ For boundary changes, the number of |s below the horizontal dashed line discriminates between 4 classes of changes. 1 for no recognizable difference, 2 for marginal changes, 3 for changes small enough to yield comparable results and 4 four otherwise.

Are you supposing that we know what all those gibberish numbers and symbols mean? I guess that the three main lines are the percentages of the vote for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties (respectively), although it doesn’t say so. And the other lines with multiple letters and garbage? And what is the point of the code letters for all the minor parties?

[Toylyyev]

Sept 29, 2023 9:47:24 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 29, 2023 1:59:38 GMT Toylyyev said:

Previous results write out for next week's by-elections. Both Haringey polls are scheduled for next Wednesday.

HARINGEY LBC, South Tottenham:
  Federalist Party F
              TUSC T
       Independent I
Socialist Alliance s
                                 1501
 22 TG:18 14 10 06 02 SS:18 14 10 09 06 02
---    --------------    -----------------
 15    [phone]    13 12 21 35 28 14
 64    73 65 59 51 51    68 63 56 37 47 56
 >5    -7 -7 18 15 10    +4 [phone]
 16    [phone]    13 15 +8  6 13 12
      F+1T 8I 5 <4 -8   T<4 <6   I>1   s+9
                  s 7

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165654.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2018/haringey18s.svgz
Eastern thirds of the former Tottenham Green and Seven Sisters wards, plus the southern tip of former Tottenham Hale. Their tallies might differ from the displayed ward results. Estimated ward fractions here and below refer to electorate not area.

White Hart Lane:
                 Independent I
Democrats and Veterans Party V
                        UKIP K
                        TUSC T
          Socialist Alliance s
                         1709 0209
 22 | 18 14 10 06 02  W:18 15 14 14 10 06 02
----|---------------    --------------------
 12 | 10 10 23 27 34    >8  7  6 >7 12 <9 17
 59 | 78 57 54 52 48    67 62 56 58 47 45 57
 -9 |  4 <6 15 11  8    15 21 20 12 35 38 20
 -- | <7 -8 >6 +9 11     9 <6  8 10 +6 -9 --
 --  V>1K13            V 1K-5 <7 <8      s-7
 --     T<7                  T+1  3
I21                            1 <2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165551.html
Gains the south eastern third of the old Woodside ward, but loses its own former eastern and north eastern part, i.e. about 40%. The old Woodside had lower Conservative and higher LibDem scores but never enough to gain a seat. Unsure how representative the ward results are for its south eastern part.

--

LAMBETH LBC, Vauxhall:
                             UKIP K
                             TUSC T
                              EDP E
Local Education Action by Parents P
               Socialist Alliance a
           Women's Equality Party W
                 Federalist Party F
                       Left Unity U
                  Socialist Party s
                      Independent I
                           0705     0406
 22  O:18 14 10 06 02  P:18 15 14 10 09 06 02
---    --------------    --------------------
 16    11 12 17 13 >8    12 20 16 19 17 15  8
 56    47 49 38 27 25    55 44 50 48 41 45 38
 12    30 18 36 37 51    13 23 >9 23 33 23 45
 17    11 11 >8 14 11    10 12 11 <8 -8 14 +8
         K-8E>1 -4 --   K 2 -- -8E 2 >2 --
         T+2   P>6a<5   W-8U>1I>4      P>4
	                F-1s-1T>2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/165751.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2018/lambeth18s.svgz
West and north west of the former Oval ward, taking in about a quarter of the old ward built-up area, but has quite a few high rise buildings. Plus south east of the former Prince's ward, again about a quarter of it. Buildings grow higher towards the river there too. No warranty on the meaningfulness of the old ward results.

--

TAMWORTH DC, Amington:
       UKIP K
Independent I
 23 22 21 19 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 08 07 06 04 03 02
---------------------------------------------------
 51 54 60 48 49 40 40 36 53 44 50 49 43 57 47 45 43
 49 46 30 26 40 33 30 40 47 56 40 37 39 43 34 40 41
       -- -- -- -- -- --       11 --       19 15 16
       >5 +6 -4 -- -6 --          --
      K>4 20 <7 27 24 24         I14 18

--

→ Shares in multi-seat elections are calculated with the averages method.
→ Single digit shares are split up into 0.2 increments with a bit of <,>,- and + character ascii art. No character to the right of the digit means a value within an [-.1,.1] offset, < and > a value within an [-.1,-.3] and [.1,.3] offset and - and + a value within an [-.3,-.5] and [.3,.5] offset.
→ For boundary changes, the number of |s below the horizontal dashed line discriminates between 4 classes of changes. 1 for no recognizable difference, 2 for marginal changes, 3 for changes small enough to yield comparable results and 4 four otherwise.

Are you supposing that we know what all those gibberish numbers and symbols mean? I guess that the three main lines are the percentages of the vote for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties (respectively), although it doesn’t say so. And the other lines with multiple letters and garbage? And what is the point of the code letters for all the minor parties?

In a nutshell the point is readablility 

Symbols for larger parties are left out so that the reader can better em.. focus on the numbers of which there tend to be quite a few. Their top-down order is indeed the same than in the spreadsheets from left to right.

Fractional numbers are also harder to process, which is one reason for the little trick for single digit numbers. 

As for the letters the meaning for each is listed below the designation of the by-election and above the numbers. They qualify the number to their immediate right and those further to the right in the same row until a new letter appears in that row. 

"Breton is a concise language" - Malo Louarn

It may indeed make that part of the table harder to read initially, but the ease should improve with practice. It did so for me. 

[andrewp]

Congratulations to Toylyyev for winning the week and the month, and to iainbhx and manchesterman for also making the podium for the month.

[kevinf]

Sept 29, 2023 14:07:01 GMT andrewp said:

Congratulations to Toylyyev for winning the week and the month, and to iainbhx and manchesterman for also making the podium for the month.

A Mebyon Kernow gain…

[Toylyyev]

Sept 29, 2023 14:57:53 GMT kevinf said:

Sept 29, 2023 14:07:01 GMT andrewp said:

Congratulations to Toylyyev for winning the week and the month, and to iainbhx and manchesterman for also making the podium for the month.

A Mebyon Kernow gain…

I just checked the earlier stuff and this week seems to have been my best relative score for weeks with 4 entries or more so far. Wondering now if there was ever such a week where someone did achieve less than half the average of the others?