Prediction Competition - September 2023

[batman]

COLCHESTER, Highwoods : LD 49 Lab 34 C 17

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL, Bricknell : Lab 42 C 36 LD 14 Green 5 Yorks 3

MILTON KEYNES, Newport Pagnell S. :LD 45 C 27 Lab 16 Ind 7 Green 4 WEP 1

S.AYRSHIRE, Girvan & S.Carrick : C 39 SNP 35 Lab 20 LD 4 Alba 2. C win

[johnloony]

Colchester: LD 49 Lab 36 Con 15
KuHull: Lab 48 Con 31 Grn 10 LD 6 Y 5
MK: LD 43 Con 30 Lab 17 Grn 6 WEP 2 Ind 2
SAyr: Con 38 SNP 32 Lab 17 LD 12 Alba 1

[kevinf]

Colchester
LD 50, Lab 35, Con 15
Kingston upon Hull
Lab 39, Con 30, LD 23, Green 5, Yorkshire 3
Milton Keynes
LD 40, Con 23, Lab 20, Ind 9, Green 7, WEP 1
South Ayrshire
SNP 35, Con 34, Lab 21, LD 7, Alba 3 - Con win

[andrewp]

Colchester. LD 47 Lab 37 Con 16
Kingston Upon Hull Lab 47 Con 29 LD 15 Green 6 YP 3
Milton Keynes LD 49 Con 27 Lab 15 Ind 4 Green 4 WEP 1
South Ayrshire. Con 39 SNP 29 Lab 20 LD 10 Alba 2. Con win

[Robert Waller]

Colchester. LD 52 Lab 34 Con 14

Kingston Upon Hull Lab 45 Con 20 LD 28 Green 5 YP 2

Milton Keynes LD 45 Con 28 Lab 16 Ind 2 Green 6 WEP 3

South Ayrshire. Con 41 SNP 35 Lab 16 LD 6 Alba 2. Con win

[Richard Cromwell]

Newport Pagnell South, Milton Keynes

LDEM	48%
CON	24%
GRN	18%
LAB	7%
IND	3%
Women's Equality	0%

Girvan and South Carrick, South Ayrshire

SNP	29%
CON	21%
LAB	20%	Win On Transfers
Alba	12%
LDEM	18%

Bricknell, Kingston upon Hull

LAB	57%
CON	27%
LDEM	8%
GRN	7%
Yorkshire	1%

Highwoods, Colchester

LDEM	54%
LAB	31%
CON	15%

[corradino]

Colchester, Highwoods: LD 47, Lab 38, Con 15.

Hull, Bricknell: Lab 49, Con 36, LD 6, YP 5, Green 4.

Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell South: LD 44, Con 30, Lab 15, Green 4, Women's Eq 3.8, Reform 3.2.

S, Ayrshire, Girvan & S. Carrick: Con 40, SNP 34, Lab 20, LD, 5, Alba 1. Con win after transfers.

[manchesterman]

COLCHESTER, Highwoods : LD 49, Lab 33, C 18

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL, Bricknell : Lab 44, C 29, LD 20, Green 5, Yorks 2

MILTON KEYNES, Newport Pagnell S. : LD 44, C 26, Lab 17, Green 7, Ind 4, WEP 2

S.AYRSHIRE, Girvan & S.Carrick : C 37, SNP 35, Lab 18, LD 8, Alba 2. Con win

[peterl]

Colchester. LD 48 Lab 37 Con 15

Kingston Upon Hull Lab 44 LD 31 Con 17 Green 6 YP 2

Milton Keynes LD 46 Con 22 Lab 18 Green 8 Ind 4 WEP 2

South Ayrshire. SNP 42 Con 32 Lab 19 LD 5 Alba 2. SNP win

[yellowperil]

Colchester,Highwoods: Con 15, Lab 35, LD 50.
Hull, Bricknell:Con 28, Lab 48,LD 14, GP 7,YP 3.
Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell S: Con 24, Lab 10, LD 49, GP 9, Ind 7, WEQ1
South Ayrshire,Girvan & S.Carrick:Con 39, Lab 20, LD 9,SNP 30, Alba 2.Con win.

[rightleaning]

Colchester, Highwoods: LD 47, Lab 36, Con 17
Hull, Bricknell: Lab 46, LD 24, Con 21, GP 7, YP 2
Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell S: LD 46, Con 26, Lab 11, GP 10, Ind 6, WEP 1
South Ayrshire, Girvan & S.Carrick: Con 39, SNP 34, Lab 18, LD 7, Alba 2. Con win.

[iainbhx]

Colchester DC, Highwoods: LDm 48 Lab 35 Con 17
Kingston-upon-Hull UA, Bricknell: Lab 44 Con 31 LDm 16 Grn 7 Yrk 2
Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell Sth: LDm 41, Con 31, Lab 15, Grn 7 Ind 4, WEP 2
South Ayrshire SUA, Girvan & South Carrick: Con 40, SNP 33, Lab 20, LDm 5, Alba 2 - Con win on Xfers

[Toylyyev]

COLCHESTER DC, Highwoods:
Conservative 23, Labour 38, Liberal Democrat 39.

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA, Bricknell:
Conservative 20, Labour 40, Liberal Democrats 33, Green 5, Yorkshire Party 2.

MILTON KEYNES UA, Newport Pagnell South:
Conservative 17, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 44, Green 3.5, Independent 3, Women’s Equality 2.5.

SOUTH AYRSHIRE UA; Girvan & South Carrick: Conservative win on transfers.
Conservative 32, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 2, SNP 34, Alba 2.

[robbienicoll]

14 full entries and a partial entry from ntyuk1707 this week. All on time, but with corradino having a phantom Reform UK candidate in Milton Keynes, which scores 3.2 faults in absence of an Independent.

Highwoods, Colchester: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with majorities ranging from 1% (Toylyyev) to 23% (Richard Cromwell).

Bricknell, Kingston-upon-Hull: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (batman) to 30% (Richard Cromwell).

Newport Pagnell South, Milton Keynes: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 10% (iainbhx) to 25% (yellowperil).

Girvan and South Carrick, South Ayrshire: 10 Conservative ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, ntyuk1707 with Conservatives ahead on firsts and SNP hold after transfers, kevinf  and Toylyyev with SNP ahead on firsts and Conservatives gain after transfers, peterl SNP ahead on firsts and hold after transfers and Richard Cromwell with SNP ahead on firsts and Labour gain after transfers.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tNXttAYvQQ84GtqHosucUAe9qHQD-X3wzsqgqn6c23s/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Toylyyev]

Sept 21, 2023 22:51:56 GMT robbienicoll said:

14 full entries and a partial entry from ntyuk1707 this week. All on time, but with corradino having a phantom Reform UK candidate in Milton Keynes (my underscore), which scores 3.2 faults in absence of an Independent.

Highwoods, Colchester: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with majorities ranging from 1% (Toylyyev) to 23% (Richard Cromwell).

Bricknell, Kingston-upon-Hull: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (batman) to 30% (Richard Cromwell).

Newport Pagnell South, Milton Keynes: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 10% (iainbhx) to 25% (yellowperil).

Girvan and South Carrick, South Ayrshire: 11 Conservative ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, ntyuk1707 with Conservatives ahead on firsts and SNP hold after transfers, kevinf with SNP ahead on firsts and Conservatives gain after transfers, peterl SNP ahead on firsts and hold after transfers and Richard Cromwell with SNP ahead on firsts and Labour gain after transfers.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tNXttAYvQQ84GtqHosucUAe9qHQD-X3wzsqgqn6c23s/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

The Indy was a Reform UK candidate in May in this ward.

whocanivotefor.co.uk/person/99927/lynn-anthony-cocksedge

[corradino]

Toylyyev is right. I knew the Independent in Newport Pagnell had previously stood for Reform and stupidly mis-labelled him as a result. In the event a minor mishap compared to my disastrous prediction for Bricknell.

[Toylyyev]

I usually write out all the poll shares up to 2002 from the LEAP resource before attempting a prediction. A graphics program can display the timeline of the results as shown in the tweet below.

x.com/LincolnLibDems/status/1701886526605439278

That task can also be accomplished with tables as shown tentatively below for next week's by-elections. There's a legend at the end of the post that tries to describe their non-trivial features.

HIGHLAND UA, Tain & Easter Ross:
Independent I
Libertarian l
       TUSC T
        SSP s
   2809       0906
 22 17 17 | 12 11 07 | 03+03
----------|----------|------
 11  9 16 | +1 -- >3 | -- --
 -- -- --   -- -- <4   -- --
 22 15 19   16 12 16   -- --
 -- -- --   -- -- --   -- --
 31 24 24   14 33 12   -- 23
I21 49 20   33 32 36   52 54
I11 -3 16   24 19 11   48 23
   l-1I 4   >8 <3 -8
           T<1   I>5
                 I 3
	         s-2

mapit.mysociety.org/area/151294.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2017/highland17s.svgz
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2012/highland12s.svgz
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2003/highland03s.svgz
Before 2004: Tain East (50) + Seaboard.

--

NORTH YORKSHIRE UA, Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley:
Independent I
       UKIP K
 22 | 17 13 09 05
----|------------
 40 | 69 65 71 59
 >8 | 11 15 -8 13
 24 | 14 -- 21 28
 -- | <6 --
I29     K21

mapit.mysociety.org/area/166711.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2022/n-yorks22s.svgz
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2017/n-yorks17s.svgz
The switch from county to UA keeps Hutton Rudby, Rudby and Crathorne, but looses Appleton Wiske, Brompton, Over Silton and Nether Silton and gains some more settlements.

HAMBLETON DC, Hutton Rudby (51) + Osmotherley & Swainby: 
Independent I
 19+19 15+15 | 11+11 07+07 03+03
-------------|------------------
 59 64 70 61 | 77 ↑↑ 54 ↑↑ 46 88
 24 <8 30 14 | 23    >9    13 --
 17 16    -- |       36    40 12
    12    -- |
         I25

www.andrewteale.me.uk/2019/hambleton19s.svgz
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2011/hambleton11s.svgz
Same changes as for the county to UA move above, except for the Brompton ward that the earlier Rudby (80) + Osmotherley combo lacks. The new combo corresponds to the UA division.

--

SOUTH NORFOLK DC, Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross:
Reform UK R
   0505
 23 22 19 | 15 11 07 03
----------|------------
 34 34 46 | 52 55 54 32
 17 14 19 | 19 --  8 12
 50 42 35 | 15 21 38 50
    +6    | 13 24    -6
   R<4

mapit.mysociety.org/area/152836.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2019/s-norfolk19s.svgz
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2015/s-norfolk15s.svgz
Gains Stoke Holy Cross, Flordon, Aswellthorpe and Wreningham, moves from 2 to 3 seater.

South Wymondham:
Independent I
 23 19 | 15 11 07 03  15 11 07 03
-------|------------  -----------
 27 40 | 51 54 60 38  65 63 70 61
 24 -- | -- -- 10 12  -- 24 -- 18
 48 60 | 49 46 18 50  -- 13 17 21 
       |       --     35    13
              I12

mapit.mysociety.org/area/152835.html
Moves to 2 seats as it gains the part of Wymondham south east of London Road and north of Browick Road. This made up more than half of the old Town (56) ward.

--

WOLVERHAMPTON MBC, Bushbury South & Low Hill.
UKIP K
 BNP B
 23 | 22 21 19 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 08 07 06 04 | 03 02
----|-------------------------------------------|------
 21 | 23 36 19 24 21 20 12 19 26 28 37 23 27 28 | 32 18
 65 | 64 58 62 70 69 61 56 81 74 57 48 56 56 57 | 68 72
 13 | 13 -6 >7 >6 10 -- --       15 15 10 17 15 |    10
    |       12       -- --             --       |
                    K19 32            B11

mapit.mysociety.org/area/167234.html
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2023/wolverhampton23s.svgz
www.andrewteale.me.uk/2022/wolverhampton22s.svgz
Looses the part east of Stafford Road up to the new boundary.
The Low Hill ward from before 2004 misses part of the north west and west of the old ward, and has a few roads beyond the north east of the old ward.

--

→ Shares in multi-seat polls are calculated with the averages method.

→ Single digit shares are split up into 0.2 increments with a bit of <,>,- and + character ascii art. No character before the digit means a value within an [-.1,.1] offset of the digit value, < and > a value within an [-.1,-.3] and [.1,.3] offset and - and + a value within an [-.3,-.5] and [.3,.5] offset.

→ For boundary changes, the number of |s below the horizontal dashed line discriminates between 4 classes of changes. 1 for no recognizable difference, 2 for marginal changes, 3 for changes small enough to yield comparable results and 4 four otherwise.

→ For ward combos their respective turnout shares are given between brackets, averaged over the relevant timespan. I have chosen this method over using just the last relevant polling date for the time being leaving it to the reader to figure out demographic changes.

[manchesterman]

If I had swapped my Conservative and Lib Dems predictions around for the Hull ward, I wouldve had a grand total of 3.6% faults!

[Tony Otim]

Highland: Ross 30.2 (wins); SNP 26.6; LD 22.2; Con 8.2; Grn 8.0; Lab 4.4; Libert 0.4
North Yorkshire: LD 45.0; Con 37.4; Grn 13.3; YP 4.3
South Norfolk, MSHC: LD 41.7; Con 23.8; Lab 12.5; Legg 11.7; Grn 10.3
South Norfolk, SW: LD 49.3; Con 24.6; Lab 19.4; Grn 6.7
Wolverhampton: Lab 63.8; Con 18.1; LD 14.0; Grn 4.1

[Richard Cromwell]

Another one I'm going to have to miss, unfortunately.