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Post by iainbhx on Sept 13, 2023 22:01:16 GMT
Barking & Dagenham LBC, Mayesbrook: Lab 65 Con 23 LDm 7 Grn 5
Liverpool MBC, Fazackerley E: Lab 50 LCI: 37 LDm 8 Ind 5
Chorley DC, Croston: Lab 45 Con 43 LDm 12
Lancashire CC, Chorley Rural West: Lab 48 Con 42 LDm 10
Lincolnshire CC, Carholme: Lab 49 LDm 27 Con 18 Ref-UK 5 TUSC 1
Swale DC, Minster Cliffs: Swale Ind 36 Con 32 Lab 25 LDm 7
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 13, 2023 23:05:55 GMT
Barking & Dagenham, Mayesbrook: Lab 59, Con 25, LD 8, Green 8.
Chorley, Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton S: Con 44, Lab 43, LD 13.
Lancashire , Chorley Rural West: Lab 48, Con 41, LD 11.
Lincolnshire , Carholme: Lab 62, Con 22, LD 10, Reform 5, TUSC 1
Liverpool, Fazakerley East: Lab 50, LCI 34, Ind 8, Con 4, LD 4.
Swale, Minster Cliffs: Swale Ind 36, Con 34, Lab 21, LD 9.
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Post by rightleaning on Sept 14, 2023 5:06:52 GMT
Barking & Dagenham LBC, Mayesbrook: Lab 67, Con 23 Grn 6, LDm 4
Chorley DC, Croston: Lab 46, Con 40, LDm 14
Lancashire CC, Chorley Rural West: Lab 46, Con 42, LDm 12
Lincolnshire CC, Carholme: Lab 52, LDm 25, Con 17, Ref-UK 5, TUSC 1
Liverpool MBC, Fazackerley E: Lab 53, LCI: 30, LDm 12, Ind 5
Swale DC, Minster Cliffs: Swale Ind 38, Con 35, Lab 22, LDm 5
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 14, 2023 7:26:10 GMT
BARKING & DAGENHAM LBC, Mayesbrook:
Conservative 39, Labour 54.5, Green 4, Liberal Democrat 2.5.
CHORLEY DC, Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton South:
Conservative 47, Labour 47.1, Liberal Democrat 5.9.
LANCASHIRE CC, Chorley Rural West:
Conservative 44, Labour 50, Liberal Democrat 6.
LINCOLNSHIRE CC; Carholme (Lab resigned)
Conservative 10, Labour 40, Liberal Democrat 43.5, Reform UK 3, TUSC 3.5.
LIVERPOOL MBC, Fazakerley East:
Conservative 3, Labour 38, Liberal Democrat 25, Liverpool Community Independents 27.5, Independent 6.5.
SWALE DC, Minster Cliffs:
Conservative 32, Labour 23, Liberal Democrat 6, Swale Independents 39.
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 14, 2023 20:05:12 GMT
14 entries this week, with Richard Cromwell returning, all on time and correct. Mayesbrook, Barking and Dagenham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 15.5% (Toylyyev) to 46% (yellowperil). Croston, Mawdesley and Euxton South, Chorley: Even split, 7 with Conservative hold and 7 Labour gain. Chorley Rural West, Lancashire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 1% (batman, corradino and Robert Waller) to 21% (Richard Cromwell), although max majority after this is 13% (andrewp and yellowperil). Carholme, Lincolnshire: 13 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 12% (kevinf) to 59% (Richard Cromwell). Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain with 3.5% majority. Fazakerley East, Liverpool: 13 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (corradino) to 44% (Robert Waller). Kevinf Liverpool Community Independent gain with 0.5% majority. Minster Cliffs, Swale: 100% Swale Independent gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (manchesterman and Richard Cromwell) to 18% (andrewp). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UME1dkd_nxcrOx2idAR8_d8bGKLqpCxA9vgalXiQCII/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 14, 2023 20:22:15 GMT
I'm going to (pre-emptively?) guess the two Scottish by-elections for fun.
TAIN & EASTER ROSS
LIB 30% (+8)
IND 27% (new)
SNP 27% (-4)
CON 7% (-4)
LAB 5% (new)
GRN 3% (new)
LBT 1% (new)
INDEPENDENT GAIN.
GIRVAN & SOUTH CARRICK
CON 36% (+8)
SNP 32% (+7)
LAB 26% (+18)
LIB 4% (new)
ALBA 2% (+1)
SNP HOLD.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 14, 2023 21:26:10 GMT
I'm going to (pre-emptively?) guess the two Scottish by-elections for fun. TAIN & EASTER ROSSLIB 30% (+8) IND 27% ( new) SNP 27% (-4) CON 7% (-4) LAB 5% ( new) GRN 3% ( new) LBT 1% ( new) INDEPENDENT GAIN.GIRVAN & SOUTH CARRICKCON 36% (+8) SNP 32% (+7) LAB 26% (+18) LIB 4% ( new) ALBA 2% (+1) SNP HOLD.
Based on knowledge of the independent in Easter Ross, or just a guess for a generic Indy? |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2023 21:53:20 GMT
I had a friend who lived in Croston for many years and we spent quite a lot of time there and in nearby Mawdesley. Both have an air of "idyllic country-living", best-kept village awards, and you expect to see the postman riding along the winding roads whistling on his bicycle anytime. The idea of them not returning a Tory councillor is almost unthinkable...almost. That's why I went for a split ticket to hedge my bets  |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 14, 2023 22:11:37 GMT
I had a friend who lived in Croston for many years and we spent quite a lot of time there and in nearby Mawdesley. Both have an air of "idyllic country-living", best-kept village awards, and you expect to see the postman riding along the winding roads whistling on his bicycle anytime. The idea of them not returning a Tory councillor is almost unthinkable...almost. That's why I went for a split ticket to hedge my bets Croston is lovely. Used to have a number of decent pubs though I think they're all gone now. |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2023 22:13:46 GMT
I had a friend who lived in Croston for many years and we spent quite a lot of time there and in nearby Mawdesley. Both have an air of "idyllic country-living", best-kept village awards, and you expect to see the postman riding along the winding roads whistling on his bicycle anytime. The idea of them not returning a Tory councillor is almost unthinkable...almost. That's why I went for a split ticket to hedge my bets Croston is lovely. Used to have a number of decent pubs though I think they're all gone now. Indeed. Though i havent been back for about 7-8 years so I couldnt comment on the pub count |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 14, 2023 22:18:00 GMT
I'm going to (pre-emptively?) guess the two Scottish by-elections for fun. TAIN & EASTER ROSSLIB 30% (+8) IND 27% ( new) SNP 27% (-4) CON 7% (-4) LAB 5% ( new) GRN 3% ( new) LBT 1% ( new) INDEPENDENT GAIN.GIRVAN & SOUTH CARRICKCON 36% (+8) SNP 32% (+7) LAB 26% (+18) LIB 4% ( new) ALBA 2% (+1) SNP HOLD.
Based on knowledge of the independent in Easter Ross, or just a guess for a generic Indy? complete guess work |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 15, 2023 13:22:09 GMT
Congratulations to Toylyyev for the week and month to date and corradino and iainbhx for making up the rest of the podium. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 15:12:28 GMT
robbienicoll . I think this might help him slightly - on the spreadsheet you have yellowperil numbers for the Chorley county contest in for both the district and county contests in the spreadsheet.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2023 16:47:05 GMT
robbienicoll . I think this might help him slightly - on the spreadsheet you have yellowperil numbers for the Chorley county contest in for both the district and county contests in the spreadsheet. Thank you for spotting that- I would never have noticed, even in a good week which this has decidedly not been. Actually, I think it might make a difference to the monthly order at this stage but not for long if I have another week like this! |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 15, 2023 22:35:09 GMT
( Beamed down from the Almanac threads) [...] it has to be recognized that Gwynedd local elections are notoriously difficult to parse [...] With due respect, i can report noteworthily different perceptions. So long the PC strongholds in the North West were among the easier ones in Wales to model. Unlike the Valleys or Flintshire even when information was forthcoming. The latter brings me to a nearby hard to predict borough. Overall Liverpool as well as some other parts in the North West away from the coast did cause among the most difficulties during the initial interpretation phase. This week was a case in point there and the relatively high amount of time invested in researching Fazakerley East may have avoided a repeat of earlier high score experiences. Also boroughs on both sides of the Thames Estuary with increasing difficulty towards Greater London, and then decreasing again gradually inside of it. The couple last week in Newcastle were tough too, and coming relatively close there did feel good. I have similar recollections from some other wards/divisions in Staffordshire and the Black Country. Of course the call for any by-election can prove faulty, but that would typically be caused by a different kind of mistakes, i.e. an erroneous measure for parameters rather than the wrong model. Edit. I forgot Middlesbrough, sorry for that. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 15, 2023 23:04:54 GMT
As it was in the Almanac section, what I meant was that it is difficult to use local elections to work out general election behaviour ward by ward (I was not saying that local elections were hard to predict, though I must say some of us have found that about Gwynedd too!). The reason is the large number of strong Independent candidates.
Further up the Dwyfor Meirionnydd entry I wrote
In fact it is very difficult to use local elections in Gwynedd council to work out the internal variations within Dwyfor Meirionnydd: in May 2022, 44 Plaid Cymru councillors were returned to the council, 23 Independents, and just one each for Labour and Liberal Democrats (in Hendre, Caernarfon, in the future but not the present seat, and Dolbenmaen respectively).
and the quote above towards the end was meant as a pick-up of that.
It is a bit like the Highlands of Scotland in that regard.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 16, 2023 0:51:36 GMT
I plead guilty of diagonal reading here. On the original topic, seen from afar the possible extrapolations from local to national constituency don't seem different from other local authorities with non-aligned councillors, be it the Highlands, Middlesbrough or West Devon. Or differences between LibDem local strongholds that either have or don't have a LibDem MP. Supposed colour preferences of councillors or their voters can provide tentative orientation. Over time i have lost much of the awe to call the electoral performance of Independent candidates. It does take time, effort and enough attention to find the available clues, but that can also be the case otherwise or even prove to be harder. Mishaps have gradually become more attributable to the listed causes rather than not understanding their politics. In Northern Ireland the cogniscient are able to quite safely classify the Independent councillors into red green, orange, unicorns and whatnot  |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 16, 2023 7:00:09 GMT
robbienicollI have now found the time to check the error in transcribing my prediction for Croston. I think it should have reduced my faults by about 14, which doesn't seem much but tightly placed as we are seems to move me from 8th to 5th, ahead of Tony, Robert and (sadly, given nobody would have noticed but for his eagle eyes!) Andrew. However, another week of disasters like the last and I will be struggling to stay in the top 10. Could the transcription error be corrected to give me a small chance of remaining in contention?
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 16, 2023 10:54:26 GMT
robbienicoll I have now found the time to check the error in transcribing my prediction for Croston. I think it should have reduced my faults by about 14, which doesn't seem much but tightly placed as we are seems to move me from 8th to 5th, ahead of Tony, Robert and (sadly, given nobody would have noticed but for his eagle eyes!) Andrew. However, another week of disasters like the last and I will be struggling to stay in the top 10. Could the transcription error be corrected to give me a small chance of remaining in contention? And just when I thought the mistakes were a thing of last week! That's now fixed, I remember thinking you seemed disproportionally on the high side, but a tough week all round I think. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 19, 2023 20:07:47 GMT
Colchester: LD 46.4; Lab 38.5; Con 15.1
Hull: Lab 42.9; Con 31.3; LD 17.4; Grn 4.5; YP 3.9
MIlton Keynes: LD 43.1; Con 27.9; Lab 18.7; Cocksedge 6.2; Grn 2.8; WEQ 1.3
South Ayrshire: Con 40.8; SNP 32.8; Lab 21.5; LD 2.8; Alba 2.1 (con win on transfers)
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