Prediction Competition - September 2023

[corradino]

Broadland, Thorpe St Andrew NW: Lab 45, Con 44, LD 11.

Manchester, Brooklands: Lab 62, Green 18, Con 9, Reform 7, LD 4.

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Audley: Lab 39, Con 38, Ind 16, LD 7.

" Knutton: Lab 45, Con 35, LD 20.

Shropshire, Worfield: Con 60, LD 25, Lab 15.

[Tony Otim]

Broadland: Lab 52.9; Con 36.7; LD 10.4
Manchester: Lab 64.6; Grn 13.7; Con 10.6; LD 7.5; RefUK 3.6
N-u_l, Audley: Lab 45.0; Con 38.0; LD 11.7; O'Dwyer 5.3
N-u-l, Knutton: Con 46.0; Lab 45.4; LD 8.6
Shropshire: Con 57.5; LD 33.0; Lab 9.5

[andrewp]

Broadland. Lab 52 Con 40 LD 8
Manchester. Lab 63 Green 16 Con 10 LD 7 Ref UK 4
Newcastle Under Lyme. Audley. Lab 47 Con 35 LD 10 Ind 8
Newcastle Under Lyme. Knutton. Lab 54 Con 41 LD 5
Shropshire. Con 55 LD 35 Lab 10

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to open the month, no Richard Cromwell or Right Leaning but a very welcome return from Toylyyev. All on time and correct.

Ashford Town, Spelthorne: 6 Independent (Enright) gain from Green, with kevinf, peterl and Toylyyev Green hold and iainbhx, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qrs1a7tSOiti0JRpVLBKmxUbYIbmpa4tm55N5oB5hhI/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Broadland. Lab 50 Con 40 LD 10

Manchester. Lab 66 Green 16 Con 10 LD 5 Ref UK 3

Newcastle Under Lyme. Audley. Lab 46 Con 31 LD 15 Ind 8

Newcastle Under Lyme. Knutton. Lab 55 Con 40 LD 5

Shropshire. Con 58 LD 32 Lab 10

[peterl]

Broadland. Lab 49 Con 41 LD 10
Manchester. Lab 65 Green 15 LD 9 Con 7 Ref UK 4
Newcastle Under Lyme. Audley. Lab 43 Con 37 LD 12 Ind 8
Newcastle Under Lyme. Knutton. Lab 49 Con 45 LD 6
Shropshire. Con 51 LD 38 Lab 11

[yellowperil]

Broadland, Thorpe St Andrew NW: Con 37, Lab 50, LD 13.
Manchester, Brooklands: Con 4, Lab 60, LD 8, GP 24, RUK 4.
Newcastle-u-L, Audley: Con 33, Lab 50,LD 10, Ind 7.
Newcastle-u-L, Knutton: Con 43, Lab 47, LD 10.
Shropshire,Worfield:Con 46, Lab 11, LD 43.

[iainbhx]

Broadland DC, Thorpe St Andrew NW: Lab 48 Con 41 LDm 11

Manchester MBC, Brooklands: Lab 60 Grn 19 Con 11 LDm 7 Ref-UK 3

Newcastle Under Lyme DC, Audley: Lab 48 Con 32 LDm 12 Ind 8

Newcastle Under Lyme DC, Knutton. Lab 45 Con 44 LDm 11

Shropshire UA, Worfield: Con 56 LDm 30 Lab 14

[rightleaning]

Broadland, Thorpe St Andrew NW: Lab 52, Con 38, LD 10
Manchester, Brooklands: Lab 61, GP 26, LD 7, Con 4, RUK 2.
Newcastle-u-L, Audley: Lab 52, Con 34, LD 11, Ind 3.
Newcastle-u-L, Knutton: Lab 51, Con 42, LD 7.
Shropshire,Worfield: Con 48, LD 42, Lab 10,

[johnloony]

Now I am annoyed with the voters becoming they didn’t make it a very close four-way marginal, and they didn’t go to the other extreme of voting forma landslide victory for (say) the Independent candidate. Instead, they did a boring normal result about mid way between the two.

[Toylyyev]

BROADLAND DC, Thorpe St Andrew North West:
Conservative 40, Labour 51, Liberal Democrat 9.

MANCHESTER MBC, Brooklands:
Conservative 12, Labour 63, Liberal Democrat 4, Green 12, Reform UK 9.

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME DC, Audley:
Conservative 25, Labour 44, Liberal Democrat 27, Independent 4.
Knutton:
Conservative 30, Labour 55, Liberal Democrat 15.

SHROPSHIRE UA, Worfield:
Conservative 74, Labour 10, Liberal Democrat 16.

[robbienicoll]

13 entries for the Thursday half of the week, with Right Leaning returning. All on time, but with kevinf picking up 1 fault for going over in Manchester.

Thorpe St Andrew North West, Broadland: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (batman and corradino) to 20% (kevinf).

Brooklands, Manchester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 29% (kevinf) to 52% (johnloony).

Audley, Newcastle-under-Lyme: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from <1% (batman) to 24% (johnloony).

Knutton, Newcastle-under-Lyme: 12 Labour hold, majorities ranging from 1% (iainbhx) to 35% (johnloony). Tony Otim Conservative gain with 0.6% majority.

Worfield, Shropshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (yellowperil) to 58% (Toylyyev).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JPzp74QITWkfJ33oGH8mMGMguoduTdjcj6txXFx9UvA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

Sept 7, 2023 22:25:45 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries for the Thursday half of the week, with Right Leaning returning. All on time, but with kevinf picking up 1 fault for going over in Manchester.

Thorpe St Andrew North West, Broadland: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (batman and corradino) to 20% (kevinf).

Brooklands, Manchester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 29% (kevinf) to 51% (Toylyyev).

Audley, Newcastle-under-Lyme: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from <1% (batman) to 24% (johnloony).

Knutton, Newcastle-under-Lyme: 12 Labour hold, majorities ranging from 1% (iainbhx) to 35% (johnloony). Tony Otim Conservative gain with 0.6% majority.

Worfield, Shropshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (yellowperil) to 58% (Toylyyev).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JPzp74QITWkfJ33oGH8mMGMguoduTdjcj6txXFx9UvA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I predikted a Labour majority of 52% in Manchester.

[yellowperil]

I am really cross with myself. I had Shropshire down as a Lib Dem win, indeed my draft result was almost exactly right... And then I funked it and changed the Lib Dem and Tory votes round.

[robbienicoll]

Results are up - and it was a close one!

[iainbhx]

That is close.

[batman]

sorry to be thick but where do I find the results?

[Robert Waller]

Yes, though congrats to yellowperil for a clear week win and month lead.
It is a pity that rightleaning missed the early contest, as I believe he won the day on Thursday!
And well done corradino and Toylyyev for cleaning up most of the individual contest wins.

[Robert Waller]

Sept 8, 2023 8:48:05 GMT batman said:

sorry to be thick but where do I find the results?

On robbienicoll's spreadsheet above, can probably also use the link in John Loony's post on this page

[yellowperil]

Sept 8, 2023 8:49:41 GMT Robert Waller said:

Yes, though congrats to yellowperil for a clear week win and month lead.
It is a pity that rightleaning missed the early contest, as I believe he won the day on Thursday!
And well done corradino and Toylyyev for cleaning up most of the individual contest wins.

A pedant speaks: 
Strictly the two contests this month have not been a week  contest and a month contest. We had 2 contests in the same week, but on different days. They should combine to be a single week contest and in due course contribute to the month contest, most of which is still to come and well I am sure be very open.

thanks for the congrats but I am still smarting about my late decision to reverse theTory and Lib Dem votes in Worfield. A momentary lack of confidence in what my own figures were telling me.