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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 19:02:41 GMT
Top Labor held Divisions for NO:
1.Spence (SA) - 72.3% (Labor 2 party share - 62.9%)
2.Hunter (NSW) - 71.4% (Labor 2 party share - 54%)
3.Paterson (NSW) - 70.5% (Labor 2 party share - 53.3%)
4.Blair (QLD) - 69.8% (Labor 2 party share - 55.2%)
5.Brand (WA) - 69.4% (Labor 2 party share - 66.7%)
6.Pearce (WA) - 69.1% (Labor 2 party share - 59%)
7.Makin (SA) - 68.1% (Labor 2 party share - 60.8%)
8.Lyons (TAS) - 67.8% (Labor 2 party share - 50.9%)
9.Burt (WA) - 66.9% (Labor 2 party share - 65.2%)
10.Hasluck (WA) - 66% (Labor 2 party share - 56%)
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Post by ibfc on Oct 14, 2023 19:08:36 GMT
Divisions where the NO vote share is above 80%: 1.Maranoa (QLD) - 84.1% 2.Flynn (QLD) - 83.6% 3.Hinkler (QLD) - 80.9% 4.Capricornia (QLD) - 80.8% 4.Dawson (QLD) - 80.8% 4.Kennedy (QLD) - 80.8% It's like a directory of National Party heartlands if you take a look at the ones with Yes votes above 70%. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 14, 2023 19:17:42 GMT
Divisions where the NO vote share is above 80%: 1.Maranoa (QLD) - 84.1% 2.Flynn (QLD) - 83.6% 3.Hinkler (QLD) - 80.9% 4.Capricornia (QLD) - 80.8% 4.Dawson (QLD) - 80.8% 4.Kennedy (QLD) - 80.8% It's like a directory of National Party heartlands if you take a look at the ones with Yes votes above 70%. While I appreciate this isn't technically a Right/Left election, it's very noticeable how Queensland appears to have moved discernably to the Right in recent federal election cycles and is now coming out stronger for No than anywhere else. It's clearly the most conservative of the main states now. Any idea why this is? |
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Post by ibfc on Oct 14, 2023 19:21:04 GMT
It's like a directory of National Party heartlands if you take a look at the ones with Yes votes above 70%. While I appreciate this isn't technically a Right/Left election, it's very noticeable how Queensland appears to have moved discernably to the Right in recent federal election cycles and is now coming out stronger for No than anywhere else. It's clearly the most conservative of the main states now. Any idea why this is? Brisbane accounts for a lesser portion of the state's electorate than any other capital city does for its state. Essentially it is the most rural state and as elections have moved more to the cultural axis from the economic one, it has swung right. Interestingly, this happened ahead of the corresponding swing in wealthy inner city electorates unlike some other countries. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 19:22:37 GMT
It's like a directory of National Party heartlands if you take a look at the ones with Yes votes above 70%. While I appreciate this isn't technically a Right/Left election, it's very noticeable how Queensland appears to have moved discernably to the Right in recent federal election cycles and is now coming out stronger for No than anywhere else. It's clearly the most conservative of the main states now. Any idea why this is? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Queensland has always been the most socially conservative (and populist) state in Australia. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 14, 2023 19:44:25 GMT
It's like a directory of National Party heartlands if you take a look at the ones with Yes votes above 70%. While I appreciate this isn't technically a Right/Left election, it's very noticeable how Queensland appears to have moved discernably to the Right in recent federal election cycles and is now coming out stronger for No than anywhere else. It's clearly the most conservative of the main states now. Any idea why this is? It was also the most pro-monarchist state in Australia at the 1999 referendum. The most discernable differences between voting in that referendum to this one is that Tasmania was slightly worse for No than the national average, whereas in 1999 it had the second strongest No vote in Australia after Queensland. Northern Territory was also more pro-republic, whereas it had a higher-than-average No vote at the voice referendum. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 14, 2023 19:49:04 GMT
The main takeaway for me is that voters in east Sydney, central Melbourne and central Perth are willing to vote on the basis of 'progressiveness' for progressiveness's sake, whereas voters in Labor strongholds in suburban and regional areas seem more willing to vote down inherently bad proposals on the basis of fact. They are not inherently right-wing areas.
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xenon
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Post by xenon on Oct 14, 2023 21:11:54 GMT
Having not paid much attention to this, I had a look at the ABC's website, and there isn't a single headline about the No side's victory beyond simple statements of fact. Instead there seems to be a series of articles detailing the disappointment of Yes supporters, helpline numbers for indigenous Australians, and analysis pieces highlighting the handful of places which voted Yes.
I'm not sure whether this reflects a reluctance from the No side to be overtly celebratory given the circumstances surrounding the referendum, or simply the ABC being unrepresentative of the plurality of opinions present in the debate?
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 21:17:10 GMT
Bloody hell, the ABC broadcast is the definition of “cringe”, literally every single panel member is a YES voter or Progressive NO. The answer to your question. xenon |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 14, 2023 21:34:54 GMT
Page has swung a bit to the right recently though. I was quite surprised that the ALP didn't pick it up in 2022. The former Labor MP had a large personal vote while the current Nationals MP has a very big one. Outside of Lismore it’s very much an elderly country seat so isn’t too winnable for Labor anyways. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 14, 2023 21:41:52 GMT
Why does Maribyrnong stretch so far out of the inner city? It’s actually a fairly logical seat. It uses the river as its border so can’t go east, south or west. Ideally, it would only expand/shrink on its northern border in the outer suburbs. If anything, the inner city bit is the awkward part (at the last federal election in was Labor vs Greens while the rest of the seat was fairly marginal Labor territory). Melbourne generally uses smallish rivers as borders, which makes drawing seats quite logical but does make them quite polarised (usually in Labor’s favour against both its competitors). |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 14, 2023 23:14:36 GMT
The main takeaway for me is that voters in east Sydney, central Melbourne and central Perth are willing to vote on the basis of 'progressiveness' for progressiveness's sake, whereas voters in Labor strongholds in suburban and regional areas seem more willing to vote down inherently bad proposals on the basis of fact. They are not inherently right-wing areas. Honestly I think that says more about you than it does about any Australians! What we are seeing here in the results is basically social liberal v social conservative with a bit of ethnic input. It’s a rather more extreme split than expected, but that can probably be put down to the campaigns more than the actual proposal on the ballot. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 14, 2023 23:38:18 GMT
The main takeaway for me is that voters in east Sydney, central Melbourne and central Perth are willing to vote on the basis of 'progressiveness' for progressiveness's sake, whereas voters in Labor strongholds in suburban and regional areas seem more willing to vote down inherently bad proposals on the basis of fact. They are not inherently right-wing areas. Honestly I think that says more about you than it does about any Australians! What we are seeing here in the results is basically social liberal v social conservative with a bit of ethnic input. It’s a rather more extreme split than expected, but that can probably be put down to the campaigns more than the actual proposal on the ballot. I think you’re agreeing with each other. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2023 2:23:11 GMT
The main takeaway for me is that voters in east Sydney, central Melbourne and central Perth are willing to vote on the basis of 'progressiveness' for progressiveness's sake, whereas voters in Labor strongholds in suburban and regional areas seem more willing to vote down inherently bad proposals on the basis of fact. They are not inherently right-wing areas. Honestly I think that says more about you than it does about any Australians! What we are seeing here in the results is basically social liberal v social conservative with a bit of ethnic input. It’s a rather more extreme split than expected, but that can probably be put down to the campaigns more than the actual proposal on the ballot. I mean, ethnic voters tend to be socially conservative. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 15, 2023 4:06:04 GMT
Honestly I think that says more about you than it does about any Australians! What we are seeing here in the results is basically social liberal v social conservative with a bit of ethnic input. It’s a rather more extreme split than expected, but that can probably be put down to the campaigns more than the actual proposal on the ballot. I mean, ethnic voters tend to be socially conservative. All voters are ethnic voters. I'm ethnically English. I also vote. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 15, 2023 9:13:17 GMT
Honestly I think that says more about you than it does about any Australians! What we are seeing here in the results is basically social liberal v social conservative with a bit of ethnic input. It’s a rather more extreme split than expected, but that can probably be put down to the campaigns more than the actual proposal on the ballot. I mean, ethnic voters tend to be socially conservative. I was more referencing the fact that Aboriginal voters stand out for obvious reasons. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 15, 2023 11:02:49 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Oct 15, 2023 11:39:21 GMT
Echoes of the North East regional assembly.
People aren't going to vote for a pointless talking shop with no power.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 15, 2023 12:07:12 GMT
On a detail mentioned earlier: Newcastle remains the most working class substantial city in Australia, but it has a longstanding small 'l' liberal culture because of its university and its position as a major regional centre for public services: note that it voted for a Republic in 1999. Class patterns in these results were incidental rather than a primary driver, this even being true in places where they were very marked. This was also the case in 1999.
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 16, 2023 18:26:24 GMT
I note that the basic geography of the referendum on The Voice is much the same as that on the Monarchy in 1999. And its not because of their views on the monarchy or on Aboriginal rights. Its because of their views on c****. |
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