Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 5:05:19 GMT
That 2023 result was so First Past the Post - it’s hilarious! |
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Post by robert1 on Sept 7, 2023 5:51:08 GMT
Is there any local on here who knows whether ULEZ influenced this campaign?
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 7, 2023 6:16:34 GMT
Just a different way of looking at it:
The Greens and Labour ran a joint slate effectively in May, if count it as such and the indies as a slate, then changes on average vote are (well not much change at all):
Con +1.5
Ind -4.2 compared to previous indies
Grn/Lab -0.9 but then split in two.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 7, 2023 6:19:43 GMT
As predicted by some of you the Independent had a very material effect on the result but did not stall what looks to be a rather solid and impressive Conservative advance. That advance must have at least some input from ULEZ? This looks like a revolt against all parties except the Conservatives and it must have had a driver to do so.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 8:50:59 GMT
Well, that's partly right Carlton, but it's not quite as simple as that. Tony above makes the good point that in May the Greens & Labour ran what was a de facto joint slate, whereas this time they stood against each other. Therefore the Conservative advance could be said to be fairly minor. The advance could have been a vote against the Council administration, but in answer to Robert, yes I do think ULEZ would have played a minor part. It was certainly a bit of an issue in Stanwell (especially its northern ward, which might normally be expected to be quite a lot more Labour than the southern one, but in the end wasn't) although it would have been a bigger one there, as it is very difficult to go in any direction other than south from Stanwell without going into the ULEZ zone, whereas that is not really the case in Ashford; also, Ashford has a reasonably frequent rail service, whereas Stanwell hasn't had a railway station in most people's living memory (donkey's years ago, there was a nearby station on a little branch line from Staines West, which station still partly stands, to Uxbridge, but that is long gone of course). I reckon ULEZ was a slight but not major issue here, and may have helped the Tories just a little bit. There is also the feeling that it was an unnecessary by-election caused by a rather rapid resignation. Labour were hoping that that might have had a slight effect in their favour but it wasn't to be. Labour does have potential in Ashford Town but will need to work the ward for a few years before such potential can start to be realised. It's a pretty good result for the Tories, but it was always likely that Labour & the Greens both standing would end up helping them, and that has been the case. I thought that in the end the independent might pip the Tories but their candidate wasn't as strong as in some other Spelthorne wards, I don't think.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 7, 2023 9:28:40 GMT
This is an area you seem to know quite well!
It is a fair Tory result, but I wouldn't read too much into it. The days of monolithic majorities for them on this council are very much in the past.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 9:35:37 GMT
I can't pretend to know Ashford as well as I do Staines & Stanwell. (In the case of Staines, this is probably because I have several times been allocated work in Staines, but almost never in Ashford.) However I did canvass in the by-election and have reasonable knowledge of the area. It's strikingly different in terms of social class from Bedfont and Feltham proper which are neighbouring areas, but not wealthy by any means, and does not have their Labour tradition. It's also significantly more White than Feltham or Stanwell, especially the latter which now has a very strong ethnic minority (mostly Indian & Pakistani) population and is probably the second least White part of the county of Surrey after Canalside ward in Woking.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2023 11:47:36 GMT
I can't pretend to know Ashford as well as I do Staines & Stanwell. (In the case of Staines, this is probably because I have several times been allocated work in Staines, but almost never in Ashford.) However I did canvass in the by-election and have reasonable knowledge of the area. It's strikingly different in terms of social class from Bedfont and Feltham proper which are neighbouring areas, but not wealthy by any means, and does not have their Labour tradition. It's also significantly more White than Feltham or Stanwell, especially the latter which now has a very strong ethnic minority (mostly Indian & Pakistani) population and is probably the second least White part of the county of Surrey after Canalside ward in Woking. I think the ward (Stanwell North) may be the second least White ward in Surrey - its not as straightforward as one might like to ascertain. A couple of the output areas in Stanwell are minority White, but there are a larger number of such Output areas in Redhill and where the non-white majority is greater. So it depends on definition I guess, but it looks to me like Central Redhill may be the next largest concentration of ethnic minorities after Woking |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 7, 2023 12:53:57 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2023 21:05:01 GMT
No figures but Sir William Russell was re-elected Alderman for Bread Street ward.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 7, 2023 21:19:34 GMT
No figures but Sir William Russell was re-elected Alderman for Bread Street ward. The voters didn't rise to the occasion, then. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 7, 2023 21:35:09 GMT
For anyone interested in the two Newcastle by-elections, Local Democracy Reporter Richard Price (@journoontheedge) is live Tweeting/Xing from the count.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2023 21:36:12 GMT
No figures but Sir William Russell was re-elected Alderman for Bread Street ward. The voters didn't rise to the occasion, then. Maybe they used their loaf. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2023 21:58:24 GMT
Turnout in the Newcastle-under-Lyme Knutton ward byelection is 15.6%.
Total ballot papers 313 (157 at polling station, 156 postal ballots including two handed in at polling stations).
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Post by tucson on Sept 7, 2023 22:15:07 GMT
Newcastle, Knutton
Con 99
LD 60
Lab 153
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 7, 2023 22:23:15 GMT
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 7, 2023 22:24:05 GMT
Newcastle, Knutton Con 99 LD 60 Lab 153 Lab 49.0% (+1.1)
Con 31.7% (-2.8%)
LD 19.2% (+19.2%)
No Ind
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2023 22:33:24 GMT
Manchester, Brooklands turnout 13.6%
1,505 ballot papers verified.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 7, 2023 22:40:28 GMT
LD gain Worfield. LD 400 - 48.1% (+33.5) Con 392 - 47.1% (-27.9) Lab 40 - 4.8% (+4.8)
No Green
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Sept 7, 2023 22:41:40 GMT
Knew we were going for it. Even so, that's a good result
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