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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:12:06 GMT
Welwyn Hatfield
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Post by mattb on Aug 11, 2023 20:59:15 GMT
Oh! All the Herts districts are wrongly allocated to South East ...
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,824
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 11, 2023 22:10:04 GMT
Oh! All the Herts districts are wrongly allocated to South East ... BossMan
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 12, 2023 6:23:22 GMT
Current composition Con 22 LD 14 Lab 12 - Lib Dem led Lib/Lab coalition Defending this year Con 14 LD 2 (Peartree, Welham Green & Hatfield South)
The Conservatives had a landslide in 2021 (2020 delayed) and are defending no fewer than 10 seats in wards that other parties won in 2022 and 2023 If the last couple of years results are repeated they will lose six seats to Labour (Hatfield Central, Hatfield East, Hatfield Villages, Haldens, Hollybush, Howlands - it may be the case that hurricanes hardly ever happen here, but landslides do) and four to the Lib Dems (Hatfield SW, Handside, Panshanger, Sherrards) which would render the composition of the council as LD 18 Lab 18 Con 12
If the general election is held on the same day, it may mitigate some Tory losses, helping them potentially in Hatfield East (but not so much in Hatfield Villages where, as in 2017, increased student turnout would help Labour) and maybe one or two of the WGC wards such as Panshanger and Sherrards. It may also help Labour in Hatfield SW (won by the Conservatives in 2021 but by the Lib Dems in 2022/3). Even if they do manage to hold onto a couple of seats beyond their four safe wards, they are likely to end up as the third largest party here.
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2023 8:02:33 GMT
My cousin Gavi Solomons has been a Tory candidate in 2 recent council elections here & I wonder if he will run again. I think he's still only 20. He is distantly related to Grant Shapps, though I don't think it would be accurate to say I am.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 26, 2023 19:54:11 GMT
Welwyn Hatfield has undergone numerous ward boundary revisions over the years, as one would expect from a borough containing two post-war new towns which has also seen considerable development this century. The current set of ward boundaries date back only to 2016. In fact, in most of the borough, the pattern of wards hasn’t changed very much – six of the seven wards in Welwyn Garden City date to the old UDC days with mostly minor modifications at each review. Hatfield has seen a lot more chopping and changing while the semi-rural wards in the North and South of the borough have also retained their essential form for the last fifty years. The boundaries of Northaw & Cuffley for example, have barely changed in this time - the name was changed 20 years ago or so from simply ‘Northaw’ although the order of the names belies the fact that Cuffley is by far the larger settlement. A small bit of largely unpopulated territory was gained from Enfield in 1994 as the boundary with Greater London was adjusted to align with the M25 and in 2016 the small village of Newgate Street was added. Northaw & Cuffley is a distinctive part of the borough in many respects. This is the only ward to share a boundary with Greater London and the parish of Northaw (as then was) was unique in the borough as being part of the Metropolitan Police district until 2000 (along with Cheshunt and Hertsmere). The parish forms part of the EN6 postal district with Potters Bar, whereas most of the borough is in the St Albans postal area, and Cuffley sits on the ‘Hertford loop’, separate from the main line which runs through the other towns in the borough. In many ways the area is more closely linked to Cheshunt to the East (Northaw to Potters Bar) than to Hatfield, let alone to Welwyn Garden City – that is true even of Newgate Street which is part of Hatfield parish. Logically enough the ward has been included in the Broxbourne parliamentary constituency since 1983 and from the next election will form part of Hertsmere. This is an extremely wealthy and ultra-safe Conservative ward (though it is not unique in this respect). A large majority of the electorate lives in the village of Cuffley, hard on the border with Broxbourne borough. This is true stockbroker belt, developed largely in the inter-war years with very high levels of owner-occupation and car ownership. There is a small council estate in the far south of the village and some privately rented flats around the station and the slightly unprepossessing village centre. But beyond this the housing ranges from the merely very comfortable – semis and bungalows to the positively palatial in the Northern half the village where most of the houses are detached and have four bedrooms or more. The housing along the B157 as it exits the village to the North West is exceptionally salubrious even by the standards of this ward. Northaw in the West of the ward is much smaller than Cuffley with a population of under a 1,000 compared with nearly 5k in Cuffley. It is a more conventional village with a picturesque centre around its church and green and pub and a more socially typical profile than Cuffley. Like most villages of this type, it has its area of council housing. But that is not to say that it is not overall a wealthy area which also has its share of mansions, including the one previously occupied by Cecil Parkinson while he was MP for neighbouring constituencies. The ward boundary changes which took effect in 2016 brought in the village of Newgate Street which is an anomalous part of the area covered by Hatfield town council. There are only a few hundred voters here and the demographic profile is very similar to the pre-existing core of the ward. If anything (judging by the parish council election result in May) it is even more Conservative than Northaw and Cuffley. Unsurprisingly given all the above, this ward has never been other than utterly safe for the Conservatives, and this doesn’t look like changing any time soon. The 67% they won in May 2023 was a relatively low vote share for them here. The 17.6% share for Labour in 2022 was the highest they have ever won here and the 22.7% for the Lib Dems in 2019 was their highest ever share. These were all poor years for the Conservatives in Welwyn Hatfield. In the more auspicious circumstances of 2021, the Conservatives won with a more typical 75% with Labour and the Lib Dems sharing out equally the crumbs from the table. Actually, the highest share achieved by a non-Conservative candidate was the 26% achieved by UKIP in 2014, this being the only occasion the Conservatives polled less than 50% of the vote in the history of the borough. It is unusual enough for them to poll under 60% and not uncommon for them to poll over 80%. Northaw & Cuffley | 2021 | | | White | 84.1% | Asian | 4.9% | Black | 3.7% | Mixed | 3.4% | Other | 3.9% | | | Christian | 58.8% | No religion | 27.3% | Muslim | 2.9% | Hindu | 1.8% | Jewish | 1.5% | | | Owner Occupied | 83.4% | Social rented | 4.9% | Private Rented | 11.7% | | | No cars | 7.4% | 2 or more cars | 60.2% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 88.7% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 11.3% | | | Professional/Managerial | 43.2% | Routine/Semi Routine | 11.4% | | | No qualifications | 15.1% | Graduates | 37.2% | | | Students | 6.0% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn |
| | | | | | | | | 2023 | 66.8% | 15.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | | | 2022 | 67.8% | 17.6% | 14.6% | | | | 2021 | 75.2% | 12.6% | 12.2% | | | | 2019 | 68.5% | 8.9% | 22.7% | | | | 2018 | 68.7% | 12.2% | 19.1% | | | | 2016 | 68.6% | 13.0% | 18.4% | | | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 27, 2023 7:06:24 GMT
Brookmans Park & Little Heath is very similar to Northaw & Cuffley in its demographic make up and in its overwhelming support for the Conservatives. Like that ward it is dominated to a considerable degree by its largest element which in this case is Brookmans Park – another wealthy commuter village, developed in the 1930s and consisting almost entirely of large, detached housing. There is practically no social housing in Brookmans Park. The village has markedly higher proportions of professionals and graduates than Cuffley and by some way the largest number of Jewish residents in the borough (including Welwyn Hatfield MP Grant Shapps). Brookmans Park contains about two-thirds of the population of the ward overall, the next largest element being Little Heath to the South. This is de facto an extension of Potters Bar as the boundary splits several streets between this ward and the Potters Bar Parkfield ward in Hertsmere. The area is certainly not as upmarket as Brookmans Park, but that is a high bar, and it is still a predominantly middle class and Conservative area, like the Parkfield ward it adjoins. There are some older (pre-WW1) terraced houses in Little Heath but more of the housing is inter-war and post-war, detached and semi-detached. To the North of Little Heath is Swanley Bar which is the only downmarket part of this ward. It is too small to describe as a council estate, but certainly it is a fairly miserable collection of council houses – the purpose of its existence is not clear. Both Brookmans Park and Little Heath form part of the North Mymms parish along with Welham Green (qv) and before 1999 the ward was contained entirely within that parish. In that year the southern rural panhandle of Hatfield parish was added in the form of Wildhill and Newgate Street. This increased the acreage of the ward substantially but the electorate by not much as this is a sparsely populated area. The area is no less Conservative than the pre-existing part of the ward and the electoral effects would have been felt more in Hatfield East, whence it came, than in this ward. In the most recent boundary changes, Newgate Street was moved to Northaw & Cuffley and replaced with the larger village of Essendon, taking the boundary up to the outskirts of Welwyn Garden City. Essendon is a separate parish and includes a number of hamlets and farms as well as the eponymous village itself. This is more socially mixed area, like Northaw, which includes its share of council houses but overall is a very pleasant village which looks and feels like it belongs in East Hertfordshire. It is a strongly Conservative area and provided an important boost to the Conservatives in Hatfield East, whereas here its votes are largely superfluous. The electoral balance (or rather imbalance) is very similar to Northaw & Cuffley – overwhelmingly Conservative with a vote share sometimes exceeding 80% and never below 60%. The 62% the Conservatives won in 2023 was only their second lowest share ever – they won 61% in 2014 when UKIP grabbed 21% of the vote. Labour have only surpassed 20% once - in 1995 - and the Lib Dems have rarely done so either. The Conservatives may have some cause to regret the awesome concentration of their support in this ward and in Norhaw & Cuffley (and in the Hatfield Rural county division in which they are joined), but that is in an inevitable consequence of the FPTP system to which they remain committed. Brookmans Park & Little Heath | 2021 | | | White | 85.7% | Asian | 5.4% | Black | 1.8% | Mixed | 3.6% | Other | 3.5% | | | Christian | 54.5% | No religion | 29.3% | Muslim | 2.9% | Hindu | 2.3% | Jewish | 3.9% | | | Owner Occupied | 83.2% | Social rented | 4.6% | Private Rented | 12.2% | | | No cars | 6.2% | 2 or more cars | 59.9% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 88.9% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 10.8% | | | Professional/Managerial | 46.2% | Routine/Semi Routine | 11.4% | | | No qualifications | 11.9% | Graduates | 43.1% | | | Students | 8.0% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn |
| | | | | | | | | 2023 | 62.0% | 18.3% | 12.1% | 7.6% | | | 2022 | 65.0% | 19.1% | 15.9% | | | | 2021 | 73.2% | 15.9% | 10.9% | | | | 2019 | 67.8% | 11.8% | 20.4% | | | | 2018 | 75.2% | 13.6% | 11.3% | | | | 2016 | 71.1% | 13.9% | 15.0% | | | |
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Post by batman on Aug 27, 2023 7:41:46 GMT
Funnily enough I was driving back from near Newmarket last night and, keen to avoid the A10 & A11 (and even more the M11) where possible, did consider going through Hertford & Essendon to reach the north London suburbs, something I used to do years ago when experimenting with various McMullens pubs. In the end I didn't lol. A Facebook friend frequently mentions Essendon, but it's the town of that name in Australia which apparently has a prominent Aussie Rules team
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2023 8:12:19 GMT
Welham Green & Hatfield South is a ward created in 2016, necessitated by the requirement to have all 3-member wards so the old 2-member Welham Green was merged with about two thirds of the Hatfield South ward. This actually more or less recreates the old Welham Green & Redhall ward which existed before 1999 when it was split into its component parts (‘Redhall’ being basically Hatfield South). The old Welham Green & Redhall was a classic marginal ward (one of rather few in the borough at that time) where Labour usually had the better of things. But they usually won narrow victories – they won in three consecutive years in the 1980s by less than 2%. The Conservatives won the following three elections with their lead twice being 1% or less. The Conservatives had a big lead in 1992 and Labour did in 1994-6 but in the last election on those boundaries, the Conservatives won by 45% to 43%. The Liberal Democrats never made any impact in this ward. The split of the ward into its component parts revealed (as if it were not obvious anyway) where the respective strength of the two parties lay. In the first election on the new ward boundaries, Welham Green voted 59% Conservative 29% Labour – Hatfield South 61% Labour 26% Conservative. That was also Labour’s highest share in Welham Green and their vote declined, gently at first, to the extent that it was below 10% in 2014/15. The main reason for this though was that a strong Lib Dem challenge had emerged – at first in a byelection in January 2008 where they almost gained the seat and won 35% of the vote and then at the main elections in May that year where they maintained that share. They fell away subsequently but re-emerged to win a similar share and nearly gain the ward in 2014 and 2015. Their initial breakthrough actually came in the 2013 county council elections when Paul Zukowskyj (who was the parliamentary candidate in 2010 and again in 2019) gained the Hatfield South division which includes all of this ward. He came then seemingly from nowhere, winning narrowly with 29% of the vote in what was almost a four-way marginal (with UKIP winning many votes as well as Conservatives and Labour). There was a big controversy about an incinerator in the area which was the most likely cause of the upset. Hatfield South meanwhile remained mostly safe for Labour although the Conservatives did win in 2007 and 2008 at the height of the unpopularity of the Blair/Brown government. It was unclear who would win this divided ward in 2016 but in the event, Paul Zukowskyj won easily and carried two other Lib Dems along on his coattails. The Lib Dems have topped the poll at every subsequent election by margins ranging from 3% to 30%. This was one of only two wards where the Conservatives failed to top the poll in 2021, although they did win the second seat here as there was a casual vacancy. They defended and lost this seat in May 2023 but only by 3% and must have been comfortably ahead in Welham Green then. Basically, the Lib Dems benefit from being strong in both halves of the ward with the Conservatives now chronically weak in Hatfield South (the parish ward voted LD 45% Lab 39% Con 16% in May) and Labour weak in Welham Green. Welham Green is a large village directly South of Hatfield and forming the other half of North Mymms parish from Brookmans Park & Little Heath. It is distinctly downmarket of Brookmans Park, with a much more workaday population. There are light industrial estates, sizeable pockets of council housing and mobile home parks. Most of the housing is owner-occupied but is not high status – mostly semi-detached houses. The population tends to be lower middle-class and skilled working class. But this is a formula that has tended to work well for the Conservatives. And it is certainly upmarket when compared to Hatfield South. While two thirds of houses in Welham Green are owner occupied, barely more than a third are in Hatfield South where nearly 40% are still socially rented. Most of the housing in South Hatfield is council built and while right to buy has reduced the amount still socially rented to a minority, a large amount (25%) is privately rented, often as not as HMOs. Much of the housing here is grim looking. There is a student population of approaching 20% (not especially high for Hatfield) and a non-white population approaching 30%. 37% of the population of Hatfield South were born overseas – there is obviously considerable overlap between the student and foreign-born population, but they are not all the same people. All the census statistics show a large gulf between the two halves of this ward – the proportions of middle class and working-class professions, car ownership, home ownership. The only exception is the educational profile, which is almost identical for the two halves, but this reflects mostly the presence of post-graduate students living in South Hatfield. A majority of the population of this ward live in South Hatfield but due to the large population of students and foreign nationals there, a clear majority of the electorate are in Welham Green (while due to differential turnout this will be an even higher proportion of those who vote) Paul Zukowskyj is now the leader of the council following the loss of the Conservative majority in May and defends his seat next May. Despite the Conservatives performing relatively well this May this does not look like a likely gain as he clearly has some personal vote. If a general election is held concurrently, it will improve their chances but even then, I would expect split-ticket voting to enable a Lib Dem hold. Welham Green & Hatfield South | 2021 | | | White | 78.4% | Asian | 8.6% | Black | 6.6% | Mixed | 4.1% | Other | 2.3% | | | Christian | 51.1% | No religion | 33.2% | Muslim | 4.3% | Hindu | 2.6% | Jewish | 0.9% | | | Owner Occupied | 51.9% | Social rented | 27.0% | Private Rented | 21.0% | | | No cars | 18.6% | 2 or more cars | 38.4% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 79.9% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 17.8% | Caravan or other mobile structure | 2.3% | | | Professional/Managerial | 26.3% | Routine/Semi Routine | 25.4% | | | No qualifications | 19.9% | Graduates | 29.8% | | | Students | 14.3% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ref |
| | | | | | | | 2023 | 35.2% | 20.8% | 38.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | | 2022 | 33.2% | 17.5% | 45.6% | 3.7% | | | 2021 | 40.0% | 14.2% | 43.5% | 2.3% | | | 2019 | 25.7% | 18.7% | 55.6% | | | | 2018 | 33.6% | 22.0% | 44.4% | | | | 2016 | 32.0% | 20.3% | 47.7% | | | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2023 8:33:58 GMT
Hatfield South West is another new creation of 2016 without an obvious single predecessor ward. Perhaps it is most similar to the old Hatfield West, which was a marginal ward, but it excludes the Ellenbrook area which was the main basis of Conservative support there. In addition, it took in a large chunk of the old Hatfield South, including the main campus of the University of Hertfordshire and the residential areas around Hilltop to the south. This is a curious hybrid of council estate ward and student ward. Fully 45% of residents here are students and this rises to nearly 60% in the South West parish ward (the Western half of this ward). The University, its expansion and its increased reliance on international students have transformed this area (as it has Hatfield as a whole, where it has replaced BAE as the largest employer.) Nearly 40% of the population here are other than white and nearly 40% were born outside the UK. Of course, there is considerable overlap between the two, but there are plenty of non-white students (and others) born in the UK and white students (and others) born overseas – there is quite a large East European population for example. And not all the non-white population are students either. This is the kind of area which London councils use to house some of their poorer residents with rental costs being lower than in London. Over half the housing here is rented in some form – divided equally between social and private rented. There are many students living in halls of residents on campus but many also live outside in HMOs. Most of the privately rented housing in the ward is ex-council. Obviously many of the students do not qualify to vote and many of those who do will not vote anyway, especially in local elections. Most of the residential areas here are distinctly downmarket and include some particularly ugly forms of post war council housing. There are exceptions. The area around College Lane in the far West of the ward is an attractive area of older housing – perhaps the only part of the ward built before the war. And there are some semi-decent residential streets in and around Woods Avenue in the centre of the ward. But more of the ward is characterised by grim council housing such as the flats just behind Cavendish Way on the Northern boundary of the ward and the area around Hilltop in the south of the ward. This latter area is being redeveloped – the grim shopping precinct replaced, and new flats are going up, mostly private – most probably will end up privately rented. It won’t alter the fact that this core of South Hatfield is fundamentally a shit hole. There is a particularly ugly form of terraced, flat roofed council housing that characterises this area which can be seen in streets like Hazel Grove. Given the provenance of this ward (at the time of its creation Labour held 2/3 seats in Hatfield West and 2/2 in South) and its demographic makeup, this was expected to be a safe Labour ward and did indeed appear to be on its first contest. However, the Lib Dem vote started to creep up from 2019 and in 2021, when the Conservatives won a landslide locally in the borough, they managed to slip through the middle to win, with just 16 votes separating the Conservative victor from the third-placed Lib Dem. At the following two elections, the Conservative vote declined sharply, and the Lib Dems gained the ward so that there are currently no Labour councillors here. It remains to be seen whether this situation might change in May 2024. The likeliest outcome given the recent trajectory of the ward is that the Lib Dems take the final seat. If the general election is on the same day this would help Labour as they would be massively ahead here in a scenario where they are winning nationally and quite probably in the Welwyn Hatfield constituency. The unlikeliest outcome of course is that the Conservatives hold their seat here – it seems vanishingly unlikely as only the peculiar circumstances of the 2021 local elections and the totally even division of the opposition enabled such a freak victory then. Hatfield South West | 2021 | | | White | 61.4% | Asian | 18.3% | Black | 11.8% | Mixed | 4.4% | Other | 4.1% | | | Christian | 43.4% | No religion | 30.2% | Muslim | 6.7% | Hindu | 6.9% | Jewish | 0.4% | | | Owner Occupied | 44.8% | Social rented | 27.3% | Private Rented | 27.9% | | | No cars | 23.2% | 2 or more cars | 36.0% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 83.1% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 16.9% | | | Professional/Managerial | 16.2% | Routine/Semi Routine | 17.3% | | | No qualifications | 12.2% | Graduates | 32.2% | | | Students | 45.1% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | UKIP | Oth | | | | | | | | 2023 | 14.3% | 37.0% | 43.7% | 5.0% | | | 2022 | 19.8% | 31.6% | 45.4% | | | 3.2% | 2021 | 33.9% | 33.2% | 32.9% | | | | 2019 | 25.4% | 46.9% | 27.6% | | | | 2018 | 26.1% | 46.3% | 13.4% | | | 14.2% | 2016 | 30.2% | 44.8% | 11.1% | | 13.9% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2023 13:04:55 GMT
Hatfield East has existed since the foundation of the borough and was always the safest (and often the only) Conservative ward in the town. It always contained a substantial Labour minority vote but on the old boundaries Labour only won it in 1990 (narrowly) and then in the three elections of 1994-6 at the nadir of the Major government. This is a heavily bifurcated ward, divided by the railway line, but with the area to the west being the ‘wrong side of the tracks’ in this case. Just opposite the Station across the Great North Road lies Hatfield House, home to the Cecil family for centuries and still home to the current Marquis of Salisbury. The other residences here are not quite so grand but Old Hatfield is a typically pleasant old Hertfordshire town (more of a village really). North of the old town there is newer private housing including quite a lot of private flats and on the other side of Hertford Road in The Ryde an area of detached 1960s housing – possibly the most affluent area in Hatfield proper. This area East of the railway still includes a large acreage beyond the old town but apart from odd hamlets like Mill Green this is mostly covered by the huge Hatfield Park – the grounds of Hatfield House where the only residences are gamekeepers’ cottages and the like. Needless to say, this whole area – ‘Hatfield East East’ – was the mainstay of Conservative support in the ward, but it used to extend further still to the East. Before 1999 it included Wildhill and Newgate Street – a strange rural protrusion that for historical reasons is part of Hatfield parish – and the separate parish of Essendon on the main road to Hertford. Wildhill and Newgate Street were removed in 1999 but the more populous Essendon remained until 2016. Altogether these areas hold about 1,000 mostly Conservative voters and the cumulative effect of their loss is all too apparent. The old Hatfield East always included parts of the New Town, west of the railway, which are just as poor, and Labour inclined as most of the post-war areas. Stonecross is a grotty estate North of St Albans Road and around French Horn Lane to the south of there are tower blocks and low-rise council flats. In the boundary changes which took effect in 2016, the removal of Essendon was compensated by the addition of part of Oxlease – deep into South Hatfield. This is another area of council housing with a substantial black population. Taken overall, the area west of the railway is demographically similar to other poorer Hatfield wards like Central and South West and this area now holds two thirds of the population of the ward. The contrast between the two halves (or rather third and two-thirds) of the ward is illustrated by the census figures. Two thirds of housing in the East is owner-occupied and less than 10% socially rented. In the West barely more than a third is owner-occupied and a third is socially rented. Nearly 50% of residents in the East are in professional or managerial occupations and 15% in routine and semi-routine occupations. The equivalent figures in the West are 25% and getting on for 30%. This is the least student heavy ward in Hatfield but such students who do live here are in the West of the ward, in the area nearest to the (new) town centre. Not unconnected with this, 30% of the population of the Western part of the ward are non-white – in the East it is ‘only’ about 20%. The effect of the most recent boundary change was to significantly shift the balance of the ward in Labour’s favour. The Conservatives still won all the seats in the initial election, but only narrowly and they were not even that far ahead in 2021. In the less favourable circumstances of 2022 and 2023 Labour won the ward reasonably easily. It was still the narrowest Labour win in Hatfield this May and the seat being defended next May is still, on paper, the safest Conservative defence, but that speaks more to their weakness in the rest of the town than to any great strength here. Its pretty likely Labour take a clean sweep here for the first time since the late 1990s. Hatfield East | 2021 | | | White | 73.0% | Asian | 9.8% | Black | 10.5% | Mixed | 3.9% | Other | 2.8% | | | Christian | 52.4% | No religion | 30.8% | Muslim | 4.3% | Hindu | 3.5% | Jewish | 0.8% | | | Owner Occupied | 47.7% | Social rented | 25.4% | Private Rented | 27.0% | | | No cars | 21.4% | 2 or more cars | 35.5% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 72.1% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 27.0% | | | Professional/Managerial | 32.7% | Routine/Semi Routine | 22.3% | | | No qualifications | 16.7% | Graduates | 40.0% | | | Students | 11.0% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ind | | | | | | | | | 2023 | 33.1% | 39.8% | 21.7% | 5.5% | | | 2022 | 38.4% | 44.1% | 10.4% | 7.1% | | | 2021 | 44.6% | 30.4% | 15.9% | 9.1% | | | 2019 | 33.5% | 28.2% | 29.8% | 8.5% | | | 2018 | 42.8% | 36.7% | 20.5% | | | 2016 | 34.0% | 31.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 14.0% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2023 21:19:01 GMT
The current form of Hatfield Central dates to 2008 – there were only very minor boundary changes affecting the ward in 2016 with a small part of Roe Green added from Hatfield West (basically the tiny Meadows parish ward). The mainstay of the ward is of course central Hatfield, an area within a triangle created by Comet Way, Cavendish Way and Wellfield Road. The town centre itself sits in the South East corner – the Galleria outlet centre in the South West, with the residential area of Roe Green in between. In the North there are more residential areas, mostly council built, many still council rented, many in the form of flats. There are newer private flats along Comet Way and very recent developments of mixed tenure close to the town centre. There is very little here built before the war – some inter-war semis at the top of Lemsford Road (part of the sporadic and disjointed development for which Hatfield was noted before the war) and some older (some pre-WW1) houses on Roe Green Lane. There is a significant student population, a large non-white population of almost 1 in 3 and over 40% of housing in this area is still socially rented. Stockbreach Road directly north of the town centre, with its serried rows of beige, pebbledash council houses, is reputedly the roughest street in Hatfield. Most of the area is rough and the town centre itself is dismal, albeit it is in the process of being redeveloped. Before 2008 the balance of the electorate of the ward came from the area South of Cavendish Way (which is now mostly in Hatfield SW). This was similar terrain – mostly council built properties, many in the form of flats. This version of Hatfield Central was a very safe Labour ward except for the final few years when the Lib Dems built up some support and won in 2004. In the final election in 2007 the Conservatives came very close. The boundary changes which came into effect in 2008 removed that area and took the boundary far to the North, beyond the built-up area and the A414 (though there are virtually no electors in that area). The incoming area is essentially Birchwood – a more settled residential area. This consists of some inter-war owner occupied semis, some inter-war council houses and (mostly) post-war council estates. Most of the housing here is council built but over 50% is now owner occupied. There are fewer ethnic minorities here and very few students. This is usually still a Labour voting area. It was responsible for making the old Hatfield North a safe Labour ward, as it was in every election in the 20th century, although the ward shifted strongly to the Conservatives from 2002 onwards, due mainly to developments in other parts of the ward, but Birchwood must have swung that way to an extent too. In the first election on the (almost) current boundaries, the Conservatives actually topped the poll although Labour won the other two seats. The Conservatives almost immediately lost that seat in a by-election but gained another in 2010 when the Lib Dems re-emerged to make the ward almost a three-way marginal. Thereafter the Lib Dem vote collapsed, all to Labour’s benefit and this has voted comfortably Labour at all subsequent elections with the single exception of 2021 when the Conservatives won by 9 votes. That seat is being defended in May 2024 and based on recent form this looks like a hopeless task. UKIP won 30% of the vote here in 2014 – their best result in the borough and they must have been particularly strong in Birchwood. Hatfield Central | 2021 | | | White | 71.7% | Asian | 12.4% | Black | 8.5% | Mixed | 4.4% | Other | 3.0% | | | Christian | 46.8% | No religion | 33.7% | Muslim | 4.8% | Hindu | 5.1% | Jewish | 0.9% | | | Owner Occupied | 39.2% | Social rented | 38.1% | Private Rented | 22.7% | | | No cars | 26.9% | 2 or more cars | 30.6% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 58.3% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 41.7% | | | Professional/Managerial | 26.1% | Routine/Semi Routine | 28.0% | | | No qualifications | 19.1% | Graduates | 33.1% | | | Students | 13.5% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Oth | | | | | | | | | 2023 | 22.3% | 57.5% | 11.9% | 8.2% | | | 2022 | 33.4% | 52.8% | 13.8% | | | | 2021 | 42.7% | 42.0% | 9.0% | | 6.3% | | 2019 | 33.7% | 45.1% | 21.2% | | | | 2018 | 31.7% | 53.7% | 14.6% | | | 2016 | 32.2% | 55.7% | 12.1% | | | |
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Post by batman on Aug 31, 2023 7:54:59 GMT
hope you don't mind me saying this Pete but this is really high-quality & detailed analysis.
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 31, 2023 8:33:28 GMT
hope you don't mind me saying this Pete but this is really high-quality & detailed analysis. Agreed! I also learn a lot about Hatfield, and presumably in due course will do so about Welwyn. But if I gave this level of detail for all 69 Birmingham wards, no-one would read it. PS: when I was a student I had a girlfriend who came from Brookmans Park. She hated it as the epitome of middle class smugness and stupor, where nothing ever happened. I sympathized, coming from middle-class suburbia myself, but as I have aged I have understood that these are very pleasant places to live and raise a family, and that 'things happening' is somewhat double-edged.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 31, 2023 8:43:54 GMT
hope you don't mind me saying this Pete but this is really high-quality & detailed analysis. Agreed! I also learn a lot about Hatfield, and presumably in due course will do so about Welwyn. But if I gave this level of detail for all 69 Birmingham wards, no-one would read it. I would read it! And be interested in it!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 31, 2023 8:44:32 GMT
hope you don't mind me saying this Pete but this is really high-quality & detailed analysis. Agreed! I also learn a lot about Hatfield, and presumably in due course will do so about Welwyn. But if I gave this level of detail for all 69 Birmingham wards, no-one would read it. I would - lots of other people would too. Your profiles of the then new Birmingham wards were superb and among other things inspired me to visit Druids Heath. Edit - I think I have also copied your tendency to use the word 'miserable' to describe certain council estates, as an occassional variation on my more usual 'grim' or 'bleak'
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,673
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 31, 2023 10:39:01 GMT
Agreed! I also learn a lot about Hatfield, and presumably in due course will do so about Welwyn. But if I gave this level of detail for all 69 Birmingham wards, no-one would read it. I would - lots of other people would too. Your profiles of the then new Birmingham wards were superb and among other things inspired me to visit Druids Heath. Edit - I think I have also copied your tendency to use the word 'miserable' to describe certain council estates, as an occassional variation on my more usual 'grim' or 'bleak' For the first and last time, I guess?
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 31, 2023 11:08:37 GMT
I think I have also copied your tendency to use the word 'miserable' to describe certain council estates, as an occassional variation on my more usual 'grim' or 'bleak' Well there is stylistic variation of course, as it gets dull always using the same words, whether positive or negative, and I certainly use all three. However I tend to use 'bleak' for visual ugliness and lack of greenery, 'miserable' for deprivation and disrepair, and 'grim' for both (eg north Lynn).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 31, 2023 11:56:41 GMT
I would - lots of other people would too. Your profiles of the then new Birmingham wards were superb and among other things inspired me to visit Druids Heath. Edit - I think I have also copied your tendency to use the word 'miserable' to describe certain council estates, as an occassional variation on my more usual 'grim' or 'bleak' For the first and last time, I guess? On the contrary, I would love to visit it again and I hope I may do so before it is regenerated. I will if I am in the vague area again. I was visiting Dudley on that occasion and by the time I got to Druid's Heath it was dusk so I didn't see as much as I'd have liked (how bad is the fucking traffic in the West Midlands these days!? It's worse than the South East)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 31, 2023 11:58:42 GMT
I think I have also copied your tendency to use the word 'miserable' to describe certain council estates, as an occassional variation on my more usual 'grim' or 'bleak' Well there is stylistic variation of course, as it gets dull always using the same words, whether positive or negative, and I certainly use all three. However I tend to use 'bleak' for visual ugliness and lack of greenery, 'miserable' for deprivation and disrepair, and 'grim' for both (eg north Lynn). Yes North Lynn could be a synonym for all those terms - an almost uniquely awful place.
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