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Post by batman on Sept 11, 2023 6:33:45 GMT
fish-slapping would be better because that originates in my constituency. Or at least on its boundary.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 8:36:55 GMT
If Handside is the old middle class west end of the original garden city, Peartree ward, across the railway tracks to the East is its working class and industrial equivalent. Approximately all the northern half of the ward is covered by industrial estates, the centrepiece of which was the Nabisco Shredded Wheat factory – opened in the 1920s but closed in 2008. As a listed building it has not been demolished nor (yet) redeveloped so still stands as an increasingly dilapidated monument, its primary use now being as a film set for various gangster related storylines in shows like Eastenders. Still operational are the vast light industrial estates around Bridge Road and Bessamer Road. As such the residential parts of this ward were packed into a quite densely populated area in the southern half of the ward, in Peartree itself and parts of Woodhall. Most of this is inter-war vintage council housing. As was the way then, much of this housing is well built and with decent gardens though some is starting to look decrepit, and others have already been redeveloped. Over 90% of housing here was council owned in 1981 (shortly after ownership of the housing stock passed to the local council). That was the highest figure in Hertfordshire then and has remained so since – it was still at over 50% in 2011 but had dropped to 43% in 2021 (still the highest in the county). The proportion of council housing will have dropped further since 2021 however as there has been largescale new development of some of the former industrial area around the Shredded Wheat factory – known as the ‘Wheat Quarter’. This is in the form of flats and is still being developed as we speak. As is the nature of such developments, a proportion are socially rented, some shared ownership but the greater number for private sale. It is a very convenient location for the station with its fast trains to London and must be attracting a younger and more professional demographic than exists in the established residential areas. It remains to be seen what the electoral effects of this development might be. Predictably, as a majority council estate ward, this was safely Labour for decades, usually giving that party two thirds of the vote or more. Then from 2003, first the Lib Dems and then also the Tories started to grow their support. Labour who had won with 68% of the vote in the all-out elections of 1999, dropped to 33% in 2008 as the Lib Dems gained two seats and Labour just held on to the last. That seat though was lost to the Conservatives in 2010 as Labour crashed to a poor third and went from having held all the seats to holding none in the space of three years. They remained in contention though and we able to regain one of the Lib Dem seats in 2011 which they retained in 2015. The aberrant Conservative seat was lost to the Lib Dems in 2014 with the Tories dropping to a distant fourth place as UKIP made the ward almost a three-way marginal. Then in the all-out elections of 2016, on what are the current boundaries, although the Lib Dem Malcolm Cowan topped the poll, Labour won the other two seats. These seats in turn were gained by the Lib Dems in 2018 and 2019 since when the Lib Dems have held all the seats in the ward. This was the only ward in the borough not to elect a Conservative councillor in 2021 and was not even close. In the two subsequent elections the Conservative share has been squeezed to a minimal level. Labour has retained the solid support of around a third of voters and were still within 10% of the Lib Dems at the most recent election. Should the local elections coincide with a general election, Labour would have a decent chance of winning (as they did in similar circumstances in 2015). Even absent those conditions they would not be out of contention, though the Lib Dems would certainly be favourites. Though this is the only ward in Welwyn Garden City which the Lib Dems will be defending in 2024, their victory is less assured than in several of the other wards where they are on the offensive. Peartree | 2021 | | | White | 81.7% | Asian | 5.8% | Black | 6.0% | Mixed | 4.5% | Other | 1.9% | | | Christian | 39.7% | No religion | 48.3% | Muslim | 1.8% | Hindu | 1.8% | Jewish | 0.5% | | | Owner Occupied | 43.2% | Social rented | 42.4% | Private Rented | 14.4% | | | No cars | 23.0% | 2 or more cars | 26.5% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 63.1% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 36.7% | | | Professional/Managerial | 35.5% | Routine/Semi Routine | 25.5% | | | No qualifications | 16.2% | Graduates | 35.1% | | | Students | 6.2% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | UKIP | Oth | | | | | | | | 2023 | 12.8% | 35.7% | 44.6% | 7.0% | | | 2022 | 11.6% | 33.4% | 51.8% | | | 3.2% | 2021 | 23.5% | 28.5% | 40.3% | 7.6% | | | 2019 | 17.0% | 32.6% | 50.4% | | | | 2018 | 17.3% | 38.7% | 44.0% | | | | 2016 | 18.1% | 32.1% | 36.1% | | 13.8% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 13:29:50 GMT
Hollybush ward lies directly south of Peartree and in many ways is an extension of it. The North of the ward contains much of Woodhall which is inter-war council housing. The two wards meet on Cole Green Lane where the local shopping precinct serves both wards. The Peartree pub is actually in this ward as well as the Hollybush – both classic council estate pubs. Heading south along Hollybush Lane, the inter-war housing gives way to the dominant form of housing here – 1950s built New Town corporation housing which engulfed the pre-existing village of Hatfield Hyde. The proportion of council-built property here is not much lower than in Peartree and the proportion still socially rented is the third highest in the borough after Peartree and Hatfield Central. These early New Town houses were built with some regard for the Garden City style and ethos, and these are mostly quite respectable estates. There has been some newer (21st Century) development in the South West of the ward around the A1000. This is predominantly owner occupied but is not particularly high status – much of it is in the form of flats, with the usual mixed pattern of tenure. Like Peartree, Hollybush was historically a very safe Labour ward – typically Labour over Conservatives by two or three to one. The Conservatives started to advance in the early years of this century, in common with the pattern across the borough. They came within a whisker of winning in a straight fight in 2007 and in the 2008 all-ups they gained one of the three seats. At the following elections in 2010 (a landslide for the Conservatives locally) the party gained a second councillor in the person of Nick Pace. In 2011 and 2012 Labour won easily (winning back the original Conservative seat) and in 2014 they narrowly defeated Nick Pace when UKIP also performed well. Nick Pace gained another seat in 2015 and had to fight again in 2016 as all seats were up on new ward boundaries. That election resulted in Nick Pace topping the poll – well ahead of his running mates – while Labour won the other two seats. Clearly, he has some personal appeal in this ward and in 2018 and 2019 Labour again won easily. He was fortunate that his seat then came up for re-election in the Conservative annus mirabilis of 2021 and even then, held on by less than 5% - his personal vote possibly making all the difference. Indeed, while this ward may have appeared marginal for much of the last 20 years, the Conservatives have only topped the poll here 4 times (out of 37 contests since 1973) – in 2010, 2015, 2016 and 2021. On each of these occasions the candidate who topped the poll was Nick Pace. The Liberal Democrats have never made any impact in this ward, and this remains a classic major party marginal with an elastic vote, but one where Labour clearly has an edge. As things currently appear, its unlikely that Nick Pace’s personal vote will be enough to enable him to top the poll again in 2024. Hollybush | 2021 | | | White | 80.8% | Asian | 6.8% | Black | 6.0% | Mixed | 4.5% | Other | 1.9% | | | Christian | 44.2% | No religion | 42.8% | Muslim | 2.8% | Hindu | 2.1% | Jewish | 0.4% | | | Owner Occupied | 47.5% | Social rented | 37.3% | Private Rented | 15.3% | | | No cars | 17.8% | 2 or more cars | 37.3% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 71.0% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 28.9% | | | Professional/Managerial | 35.6% | Routine/Semi Routine | 23.3% | | | No qualifications | 15.3% | Graduates | 34.9% | | | Students | 6.5% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | UKIP | Oth | | | | | | | | 2023 | 24.7% | 58.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | | | 2022 | 31.5% | 57.8% | 10.7% | | | | 2021 | 42.9% | 38.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | | | 2019 | 38.0% | 47.9% | 14.1% | | | | 2018 | 34.9% | 53.4% | 7.6% | | | 4.1% | 2016 | 40.7% | 38.9% | 6.1% | | 14.3% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 18, 2023 10:01:05 GMT
No two wards are identical, but there is a great similarity between Hollybush ward and its neighbour to the East – Howlands. Howlands is itself a road which runs along the southern edge of Welwyn Garden City - effectively the southern arm of the ring road - and runs through the middle of Hollybush as well as this ward. The QEII Hospital sits on the border, just inside this ward and the length of it on either side is lined with New Town era council housing, built in the 1950s. The census stats for the two wards are quite similar on most variables. Together they form the Welwyn Garden City South county division – historically one of Labour’s safest in Hertfordshire (one of a handful held in 1977 for example, though currently in Conservative hands). This is fundamentally a council estate ward though socially rented housing is now a minority – most of the housing is council built. Like Hollybush, most of this is post-war but it includes some inter-war housing towards the boundary with Peartree (and this section was increased in the most recent ward boundary changes). Typical is the area around Hall Grove in the east of the ward – dull but respectable and well-kempt. There are also pockets of newer private housing and in the centre of the ward, around Beehive Lane there is an area of good quality post-war owner-occupied housing. This area does not have an equivalent in Hollybush and probably accounts for the fact that of the two wards, this one has been historically slightly better for the Conservatives. For nearly all of the 20th century this was a safe Labour ward with just one solitary Conservative victory in 1992. Then from 2004 the Conservatives had a long run of victories. In the 9 elections between 2004 and 2015 Labour won only once (in 2012). Part of Labour’s problem in that period was the strength of the Green party, or rather the strength of Jill Weston – originally a Labour councillor who defected to the Greens and pushed Labour into third place when defending her seat in 2007. She also beat Labour in the all-out elections in 2008 when the Conservatives won all three seats. Jill Weston stopped contesting the ward as Green in 2014 (and is now a Labour councillor for the ward again) at which point UKIP emerged to briefly make this another type of three way marginal. UKIP faded as the Greens had done and on the new ward boundaries in 2016 Labour won all three seats – the only ward in Welwyn Garden City where they achieved this. It looks like the boundary changes, which removed part of the Hall Grove area and added parts of Peartree may have benefited Labour here and they have won all subsequent contests with the exception of that in 2021, when the Conservatives won quite comfortably (much more so than in Hollybush). They have been over 20% ahead in the last two years and this looks like another almost certain Labour gain in May 2024. Nevertheless, the 32% achieved by the Conservatives in 2023 was their highest in the town that year. This ward has a very swingy electorate and the Conservatives will certainly remain in contention if/when the pendulum swings their way again. Howlands | 2021 | | | White | 84.1% | Asian | 6.6% | Black | 3.4% | Mixed | 4.4% | Other | 1.4% | | | Christian | 43.5% | No religion | 44.2% | Muslim | 2.7% | Hindu | 1.8% | Jewish | 0.4% | | | Owner Occupied | 56.7% | Social rented | 36.7% | Private Rented | 6.6% | | | No cars | 15.7% | 2 or more cars | 41.0% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 82.5% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 17.4% | | | Professional/Managerial | 36.4% | Routine/Semi Routine | 22.1% | | | No qualifications | 15.6% | Graduates | 32.6% | | | Students | 5.8% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | UKIP | Ind | | | | | | | | 2023 | 32.0% | 54.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | | | 2022 | 34.5% | 58.5% | 7.0% | | | | 2021 | 52.5% | 37.1% | 10.4% | | | | 2019 | 32.6% | 43.4% | 11.9% | | 12.0% | | 2018 | 38.3% | 52.2% | 9.5% | | | | 2016 | 29.0% | 36.2% | 9.5% | | 15.7% | 9.6% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 25, 2023 8:16:08 GMT
Panshanger is the newest of the main developments in Welwyn Garden City – developed in the 1970s and 1980s, with the earlier housing being a mixture of owner occupied and council housing and the later being almost entirely owner occupied. The area was developed entirely within the boundaries of Haldens ward (itself one of the newer wards in the town), the electorate of which almost doubled during the 1980s. This ward was created in an unusual interim review which divided the former Haldens ward in two. Thus in 1991 there were all out elections for Haldens and the new Panshanger ward (and also for a couple of other pairs of wards which had minor boundary changes – Welwyn North/South and Brookmans Park/Hatfield East) but the remaining wards continued to elect by thirds. The Conservatives won the initial contest in 1991 by a modest margin and won much more comfortably in 1992 before Labour took all the seats in the 1994-96 cycle. All the seats had returned to the Conservatives by the end of the century though and Labour have never come close since. The reason for the Conservative dominance is clear – this has the lowest proportion of council housing in Welwyn Garden City (much lower than the other wards in the East of the town) and the highest levels of car ownership. It is not overwhelmingly middle class, but it is mainly prosperous. The ward name is a bit of a misnomer as much of Panshanger had always remained within Haldens ward and in 2016 more of it was added to that ward so this is in effect “Panshanger East” (by the same logic, Haldens would be “Panshanger West & Haldens East” so we should be grateful the LGBCE have not adopted this approach). As such it takes in mostly the 1980s built housing – small starter homes and ‘Brookside’ estates. The 2016 ward boundary changes added a chunk of Hall Grove, a mixture of older (1950s) council housing and newer owner-occupied housing. It’s not clear what the electoral impact was as the area removed also contained a good deal of council housing around the centre of Panshanger. There was certainly no noticeable effect on the first election on these boundaries when the Conservatives continued to win easily, outpolling Labour by two to one and with the Lib Dems (who had never done well here) in fourth place behind the Greens. But in the 2017 county council elections, the Lib Dems came from nowhere to gain the Haldens division which includes most of this ward (the Hall Grove section is in Welwyn Garden City South) and almost won a casual vacancy in this ward on the same day. This portended advances in the following borough elections and they narrowly gained this ward (and Sherrards, also partly included in the Haldens division) in 2018. There was a large direct movement from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems as Labour’s share held steady. The following year they gained a second seat, this time also by squeezing the Labour vote and winning quite comfortably with not far short of 50% of the vote. The Conservatives held onto their final seat, like everywhere else, in 2019 and now defend that seat again in 2024. The Lib Dem gains were held and consolidated in 2022 and 2023 and if not entirely certain, this is another ward where the Conservatives look set to lose their last representative. Panshanger | 2021 | | | White | 83.9% | Asian | 7.2% | Black | 3.8% | Mixed | 3.9% | Other | 1.2% | | | Christian | 43.8% | No religion | 41.8% | Muslim | 2.3% | Hindu | 2.6% | Jewish | 1.0% | | | Owner Occupied | 65.4% | Social rented | 20.4% | Private Rented | 14.3% | | | No cars | 14.0% | 2 or more cars | 44.7% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 77.9% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 22.1% | | | Professional/Managerial | 40.2% | Routine/Semi Routine | 19.9% | | | No qualifications | 13.3% | Graduates | 37.0% | | | Students | 5.0% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ind | | | | | | | | | 2023 | 28.6% | 19.7% | 47.2% | 4.4% | | | 2022 | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | | | | 2021 | 49.5% | 20.8% | 29.7% | | | | 2019 | 36.5% | 14.7% | 48.8% | | | | 2018 | 35.2% | 22.9% | 37.5% | | 4.4% | | 2017 | 38.3% | 24.9% | 36.9% | | | | 2016 | 45.8% | 22.3% | 15.5% | 16.4% | | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 26, 2023 13:29:07 GMT
Haldens ward covers the North East of Welwyn Garden city including the eponymous community and large parts of Panshanger. It included all of Panshanger up until 1991 but the growth of new estates in the 1980s led to the ward being vastly oversized and Panshanger was created as a separate ward then. Haldens had always been a safe Labour ward and the creation of Panshanger ostensibly made it safer, although the Conservatives came closer to winning in 1992 than they ever had on the old boundaries (and would presumably have won on those boundaries then). Haldens itself is a mostly 1950s New town development where council-built properties still predominate. It sits north of the industrial zone which spills over from Peartree into this ward and here includes newer industrial parks including the Tescos headquarters and a confusing road system. Haldens is separated from Panshanger by the industrial area and Panshanger golf course and the latter area is now dominant in the ward. Western Panshanger includes mostly owner-occupied 1970s housing while the centre of the community is dominated by council housing, much of it in the form of flats. This is a particularly soulless area (the owner-occupied neighbourhoods no less than the council estates) – more so than the not entirely inspiring 1950s estates elsewhere. This may be in part due to a relative lack of familiarity on my part but is more likely due to the late New Town style of housing which is reminiscent of some Milton Keynes neighbourhoods. The 2016 boundary changes removed the western half of Haldens itself, due to the need to bring the (old) Welwyn wards up to quota. In compensation the ward moved further into Panshanger. The political effect was probably fairly neutral as both the departing area and the area added is predominantly council housing. This is one of the most working class wards in the borough with the lowest proportion of graduates and the highest proportion of those with no qualifications in Welwyn Garden City. Notwithstanding the fairly close result in 1992, Haldens remained a safe Labour ward until the early part of this century. Then the Conservatives gained all the seats between 2004 and 2007 and held them all comfortably in 2008 when the borough was all up on new ward boundaries (the boundary changes were minor here then) The Conservatives held on easily on general election day in 2010 but subsequently lost all the seats to Labour between 2011 and 2014. In 2016 when the ward was first fought on the new ward boundaries, this was yet another ward where the party topping the poll (in this case Labour) was different to the party who won the other two seats (Conservative). Labour gained one of these seats in 2018 but the Conservatives did very well to hold on in 2019 when this was the only ward they carried in the town. At this time the Lib Dems had started to muddy the water following a by-election in November 2016 when they made the ward close three ways and then went on to win the county division of the same name the following May. It is evident that their greater strength lay in other parts of that division though and their vote has faded here as quickly as it rose. Like Hollybush and Howlands this remains a clear Labour/Conservative battleground. The Conservatives gained another seat in their 2021 landslide but inevitably lost their earlier gain last year. Labour’s wins in the last couple of years have been clear enough that again the writing seems to be on the wall for the final Conservative representation here, but as with Howlands, the Conservative retain a solid core vote and will not fall permanently out of contention. Haldens | 2021 | | | White | 86.6% | Asian | 5.1% | Black | 3.4% | Mixed | 3.8% | Other | 1.1% | | | Christian | 45.3% | No religion | 44.5% | Muslim | 1.7% | Hindu | 1.5% | Jewish | 0.4% | | | Owner Occupied | 53.0% | Social rented | 34.7% | Private Rented | 12.3% | | | No cars | 21.3% | 2 or more cars | 35.1% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 66.9% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 33.1% | | | Professional/Managerial | 33.8% | Routine/Semi Routine | 24.2% | | | No qualifications | 18.3% | Graduates | 30.8% | | | Students | 4.8% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | | | | | | | | | | 2023 | 31.0% | 50.9% | 10.4% | 7.8% | | | 2022 | 35.3% | 50.4% | 14.3% | | | | 2021 | 43.7% | 33.6% | 14.0% | 8.7% | | | 2019 | 35.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% | 10.3% | | | 2018 | 33.5% | 34.7% | 31.8% | | | | 2016 Nov | 34.1% | 30.8% | 29.6% | 5.5% | | | 2016 May | 35.4% | 37.7% | 11.9% | 15.0% | | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 18, 2023 17:09:22 GMT
Before the most recent boundary changes, Welwyn East was a Conservative monolith on a par with Brookmans Park & Little Heath and Northaw & Cuffley at the opposite end of the borough. There has only been a ward called ‘Welwyn East’ since 2008 but it is the clear successor to the Welwyn North ward which existed before then. It includes no part of the village of Welwyn itself but consists mainly of the Eastern part of the parish of that name. Welwyn North was a compact ward comprising the communities of Oaklands and Woolmer Green. Oaklands is the larger community with a population over 3000 and is quite as wealthy and Conservative as the communities in the deep south. It is not really a village – there is one pub and a couple of shops – rather a large collection of mostly detached houses, some very large – more than two thirds have four bedrooms or more. There is no council housing to speak of, car ownership is very high and it has a very high proportion of professional and managerial workers. Woolmer Green (which was part of Welwyn parish until 2000 but then gained independence) is somewhat downmarket of Oaklands. It has its share of council housing, light industrial estates and a good deal of smaller starter homes. That is not to say it is not primarily middle class and Conservative voting, but it is a more ordinary place which is somewhat in the orbit of Stevenage (alone in this borough it has a Stevenage postcode). In the ward boundary changes which came into effect in 2008 the ward was expanded to gain a third element and a third seat, and the name changed to Welwyn East. The third element was the village of Digswell, just north of Welwyn Garden City. This is more a traditional village centred around the station (Welwyn North) and its famous viaduct and is every bit as wealthy and upmarket as Oaklands, especially out towards Harmer Green. Like Oaklands there is virtually no council housing here and the proportion of professionals and graduates is even higher. This version of Welwyn East was even safer for the Conservatives than Welwyn North had been, frequently returning a Conservative vote share in excess of 70% and with no other party surpassing 20% with the exception of UKIP in 2014. The boundary changes which took effect in 2016 changed the dynamics considerably without making the ward marginal – it is now far from the Tory monolith it was. This was forced by the adoption of a pattern of all three-member wards in Welwyn Hatfield and the consequent need to expand Welwyn West. The only place it could expand into was Oaklands and it gained more or less the whole of the Western half of that community, roughly demarcated along the Great North Road. This forced the boundaries of Welwyn East southwards, into Welwyn Garden City to take the western half of Haldens from the ward of that name. This consists almost entirely of post-war council (or corporation) built housing and a third of it is still socially rented. The census stats for this area pretty much reflect those of the ward it came from, and it would be at least as strong as that ward in its favour for the Labour party (which is to say not overwhelmingly these days, but solid enough in a good year.) The effect of these changes – the exchange of an overwhelmingly Conservative area for a strong Labour area – was to reduce the Conservative share in the ward from an average of 67% on the previous boundaries to 50% on the new ones, with Labour polling between 20% and 30%. The closest result was the most recent when the Conservatives were only 15% ahead as Labour nudged over 30% for the first time. This must represent the ceiling of Labour support here though. There are now four distinct elements to this rather disjointed ward, all of roughly equal size: Oaklands (East), Digswell, Woolmer Green and Haldens (West). Labour must have polled heavily in Haldens in 2023 and would have taken some votes in Woolmer Green but must still have derisory support in Oaklands and Digswell. A further swing of 7.5% is not going to be forthcoming and while this is no longer the overwhelming Tory stronghold it was, it may still be regarded as impregnable. Welwyn East | 2021 | | | White | 88.2% | Asian | 5.2% | Black | 2.3% | Mixed | 3.2% | Other | 1.1% | | | Christian | 50.2% | No religion | 39.3% | Muslim | 1.6% | Hindu | 1.3% | Jewish | 0.8% | | | Owner Occupied | 75.8% | Social rented | 14.0% | Private Rented | 10.2% | | | No cars | 10.0% | 2 or more cars | 54.0% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 89.2% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 10.8% | | | Professional/Managerial | 47.8% | Routine/Semi Routine | 13.2% | | | No qualifications | 11.0% | Graduates | 44.7% | | | Students | 5.8% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ind | UKIP | | | | | | | | 2023 | 45.7% | 30.7% | 11.0% | 12.6% | | | 2022 | 52.1% | 28.8% | 19.1% | | | | 2021 | 56.3% | 19.7% | 12.9% | | | | 2019 | 51.4% | 19.5% | 29.1% | | | | 2018 | 47.8% | 28.1% | 11.1% | | 12.9% | | 2016 | 45.9% | 22.9% | 18.9% | | | 12.3% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 6, 2023 19:17:04 GMT
Welwyn West (and Welwyn South before it) has always been dominated by the village of Welwyn itself – sometimes known as Old Welwyn or Welwyn Village to distinguish it from its much larger and newer neighbour. Before 2008, Welwyn South, as then was, reached across the A1 to include Digswell but the boundary changes which took effect that year consigned the new Welwyn West to the West of the A1 with the only other areas included being the Ayots – Ayot St Lawrence, Ayot St Peter and Ayot Green – picture postcard villages in beautiful, wooded countryside. Ayot St Lawrence is famous as the home of George Bernard Shaw but it’s doubtful whether many of the current residents share his political allegiances. There are only a couple of hundred voters in this area in any case. Welwyn itself, which dates to Roman times, is also primarily an affluent village with an attractive old centre and wealthy, newer residential areas to the North and East. There are however quite extensive areas of council housing in the South and West of the village, some of which are quite deprived. This has historically formed the basis of a larger non-Tory vote than in the other ‘Welwyn’ ward, though neither Labour nor Lib Dems have ever come close to winning. An Independent did win in 2012 however, corralling almost all the non-Conservative vote and some of the Conservative vote too. That councillor lost out narrowly in the all-outs on the new, expanded boundaries in 2016 and remained competitive in 2018. Those expanded boundaries (which increased the representation from 2 to 3 seats) involved the addition of the Western half of Oaklands – the Mardley Heath parish ward. This part of Oaklands is every bit as wealthy and Conservative as the rest of that community (described in the entry above) and provided a useful boost to the Conservatives here - Sandra Kyriakides, the Independent elected in 2012 would surely have held her seat in 2016 absent these changes. She departed the scene following a second defeat in 2018 and in a by-election later that year the Lib Dems won 37% of the vote from nowhere, squeezing the Labour vote to nothing, although the Conservatives still held on easily. The Lib Dems remained the dominant non-Tory element in 2019 but in the following two years their vote collapsed to the benefit of both Labour and Greens, the latter moving into second place but with the Conservatives winning easily against a three-way evenly divided opposition. Then in May 2023 it was the turn of the Green party to corral the non-Tory vote as they advanced by fully 20%, squeezing both Labour and Lib Dems as well as perhaps winning some direct switches from the Tories. Clearly the substantial number of non-Conservative voters in this ward are capable of swinging behind whichever candidate presents the strongest challenge. This is very clearly now the Green party, and it remains to be seen if they can advance further. There is not much Labour or Lib Dem vote left to squeeze, and the Conservatives must be close to their floor here. A concurrent general election would likely scupper their chances, but a May general election looks ever more unlikely. Without a general election, they will need direct defections from the Conservatives, or at least for many of their voters to stay at home. In their favour is the now large body of Green councillors in East Hertfordshire (where there are no elections in May) who will be able to provide sandals on the ground. The Conservatives should still be favourites in a ward they held in the last two disastrous years and which has historically been solid for them, but the Green threat is very credible and a gain would not be a surprise at this point. Welwyn West | 2021 | | | White | 90.9% | Asian | 3.9% | Black | 1.3% | Mixed | 2.9% | Other | 1.1% | | | Christian | 50.2% | No religion | 39.3% | Muslim | 1.6% | Hindu | 1.3% | Jewish | 0.8% | | | Owner Occupied | 74.2% | Social rented | 15.0% | Private Rented | 10.8% | | | No cars | 10.4% | 2 or more cars | 53.6% | | | Whole house or bungalow | 86.5% | Flat, maisonette or apartment | 13.5% | | | Professional/Managerial | 48.0% | Routine/Semi Routine | 11.0% | | | No qualifications | 12.0% | Graduates | 43.7% | | | Students | 5.0% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ind | | | | | | | | | 2023 | 47.0% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 36.5% | | | 2022 | 54.4% | 15.3% | 14.1% | 16.2% | | | 2021 | 63.5% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 13.5% | | | 2019 | 55.5% | 6.5% | 31.0% | 7.0% | | | 2018 (Nov) | 58.7% | 4.4% | 36.9% | | | | 2018 | 51.9% | 9.4% | | | 38.7% | | 2016 | 39.7% | 11.9% | 13.2% | | 35.9% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 8, 2024 9:11:06 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 1, 2024 20:13:38 GMT
For the purposes of approximating total local election votes across constituencies, I have allocated the wards here as follows -
Hertsmere: Northaw & Cuffley
Welwyn Hatfield: all the other wards in Welwyn hatfield district
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 10:35:02 GMT
Labour gain Hatfield Villages - have all three in that ward now
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 10:40:12 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 10:43:50 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 10:47:00 GMT
The results in Hatfield all look pretty much like a carbon copy of the last couple of years, as expected really. Conservatives surprisingly competitive in Welham Green & Hatfield South again. I guess the only two unpredictable wards are Hatfield SW and Welwyn west
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 10:49:44 GMT
The results in Hatfield all look pretty much like a carbon copy of the last couple of years, as expected really. Conservatives surprisingly competitive in Welham Green & Hatfield South again. I guess the only two unpredictable wards are Hatfield SW and Welwyn west
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 11:01:30 GMT
Handside relatively close too - not great results for the Lib Dems so far
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 11:14:05 GMT
Labour gain Sherrards - Lab 606 LD 590 Con 475 That was a Conservative defence but Lib Dems won the ward easily the last couple of years. Poor results for them Panshangar is now interesting
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 11:14:28 GMT
and Peartree..
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 11:16:55 GMT
Labour will leapforg the Lib Dems to become the largest party.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 11:35:59 GMT
Conservatives held Welwyn West by 16 votes over the Greens
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