Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 27, 2023 10:01:29 GMT
MIDDLESBROUGH UA; Ayresome (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BRENT, Claire (Liberal Democrat)
HARRIS, Matthew (Green)
HUSSAIN, Sajid (Conservative)
RATHMELL, Jon (Independent)
THOMPSON, Mick (Labour)
YOUNG, Jackie (Independent)
2023: Lab 611, 457; Ind 344; Con 236; LD 107
2019: Ind 862; Lab 418, 323; Grn 138; Con 125; LD 66
Jul 17by: Lab 414; Con 252; LD 15; Grn 13
2015: Lab 996, 751; UKIP 452; Ind 435; Con 282; Ind 202
Current Council: Lab 24; Ind 15; Con 4; LD 2; 1 vacancy
ST ALBANS DC; Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm (LD resigned)
Candidates:
AHMED, Raihaanah (Liberal Democrat)
LEONARD, Frances Mary (Conservative)
LOMAS, James Richard (Green)
POSNER, Samual Alexander (Independent)
PULLINGER, Nick (Labour)
2023: LD 1156; Con 788; Grn 195; Lab 178
2022: LD 1488, 1420, 1318; Con 934, 913, 869; Grn 285, 264; Lab 236
Vacancy is for the 2022-24 term. The Conservative, Green and Labour candidates all stood here in May and last year.
Current Council: LD 47; Con 4; Grn 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2023 10:31:01 GMT
ST ALBANS DC; Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm (LD resigned) Candidates: AHMED, Raihaanah (Liberal Democrat) LEONARD, Frances Mary (Conservative) LOMAS, James Richard (Green) POSNER, Samual Alexander (Independent) PULLINGER, Nick (Labour) 2023: LD 1156; Con 788; Grn 195; Lab 178 2022: LD 1488, 1420, 1318; Con 934, 913, 869; Grn 285, 264; Lab 236 Vacancy is for the 2022-24 term. The Conservative, Green and Labour candidates all stood here in May and last year. Current Council: LD 47; Con 4; Grn 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy Frances Leonard, it should be added, was Conservative councillor for Sandridge (covering the Jersey Farm part of this ward) from 2007 until 2022 (when she was defeated in this ward) |
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Post by phil156 on Aug 14, 2023 19:33:59 GMT
They both count on Thursday evening
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Post by greenman on Aug 15, 2023 23:41:37 GMT
If the Green candidate won Clarence off the LD in May and then took St Peters off LD in a by-election June 23rd, why will they not do better in the Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm by-election. What's the difference between the two earlier contests and now?
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 16, 2023 0:04:32 GMT
If the Green candidate won Clarence off the LD in May and then took St Peters off LD in a by-election June 23rd, why will they not do better in the Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm by-election. What's the difference between the two earlier contests and now? different demographic. Both St Peters and Clarence have had a decent left leaning vote. St Peters more so but now Clarence has taken in parts of Ashley that has helped the Greens. Marshalswick has never been a strength for left leaning parties. There was a by election in 15' where Greens did well but most of that ward isn't in this one. Around the quad and maybe parts of jersey farm there's probably decent vote that Greens could get. Rest of ward though is fairly affluent lib/con swing voters Surprised to see Frances Leonard put her hat in tho |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Aug 16, 2023 16:05:58 GMT
I notice that the first two entries to the prediction competition have the Middlesbrough ward as a Lib Dem gain. Doesn't look likely from the previous figures. Is there any "intelligence " that this is based on?
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Aug 16, 2023 17:37:36 GMT
I notice that the first two entries to the prediction competition have the Middlesbrough ward as a Lib Dem gain. Doesn't look likely from the previous figures. Is there any "intelligence " that this is based on? If I told you that I’d have to kill you. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 16, 2023 21:09:40 GMT
If the Green candidate won Clarence off the LD in May and then took St Peters off LD in a by-election June 23rd, why will they not do better in the Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm by-election. What's the difference between the two earlier contests and now? different demographic. Both St Peters and Clarence have had a decent left leaning vote. St Peters more so but now Clarence has taken in parts of Ashley that has helped the Greens. Marshalswick has never been a strength for left leaning parties. There was a by election in 15' where Greens did well but most of that ward isn't in this one. Around the quad and maybe parts of jersey farm there's probably decent vote that Greens could get. Rest of ward though is fairly affluent lib/con swing voters Surprised to see Frances Leonard put her hat in tho None of the old Marshalswick South is in this ward. This takes the Eastern half of the old Marhsalswich North together with Jersey Farm. Marshalswick West contains the Marshalswick part of the old Marshalswick South. But Green support was concentrated in the Sandridge New Town area in Bernards Heath. I was active in that by-election and spent quite a bit of the day telling at Bernards Heath infants school where that Green woman was most of the time (Jill Mills? Can't be arsed to check). She was the most annoying person I encountered in the time I was politically active in St Albans, which given the number of Lib Dems involved was quite a feat.. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 17, 2023 0:09:16 GMT
different demographic. Both St Peters and Clarence have had a decent left leaning vote. St Peters more so but now Clarence has taken in parts of Ashley that has helped the Greens. Marshalswick has never been a strength for left leaning parties. There was a by election in 15' where Greens did well but most of that ward isn't in this one. Around the quad and maybe parts of jersey farm there's probably decent vote that Greens could get. Rest of ward though is fairly affluent lib/con swing voters Surprised to see Frances Leonard put her hat in tho None of the old Marshalswick South is in this ward. This takes the Eastern half of the old Marhsalswich North together with Jersey Farm. Marshalswick West contains the Marshalswick part of the old Marshalswick South. But Green support was concentrated in the Sandridge New Town area in Bernards Heath. I was active in that by-election and spent quite a bit of the day telling at Bernards Heath infants school where that Green woman was most of the time (Jill Mills? Can't be arsed to check). She was the most annoying person I encountered in the time I was politically active in St Albans, which given the number of Lib Dems involved was quite a feat.. I believe Jill was telling at Bernards Heath. I feel like we've often been ships passing in the night during our politically active time in St Albans. Mostly at counts I imagine tho. Jill Mills is thoroughly the worst person to have ever stood for council in St Albans. Greens probably would have won St Peters in 14' had she not been candidate. She did do well in the by election but very much nothing to do with her. I understand she was telling people how to vote at polling station on the day She seems to have been sidelined which can't hurt. I was friendly with a few people who knew your young candidate in that by election. Two or three friends of mine went to school with him |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2023 7:03:33 GMT
None of the old Marshalswick South is in this ward. This takes the Eastern half of the old Marhsalswich North together with Jersey Farm. Marshalswick West contains the Marshalswick part of the old Marshalswick South. But Green support was concentrated in the Sandridge New Town area in Bernards Heath. I was active in that by-election and spent quite a bit of the day telling at Bernards Heath infants school where that Green woman was most of the time (Jill Mills? Can't be arsed to check). She was the most annoying person I encountered in the time I was politically active in St Albans, which given the number of Lib Dems involved was quite a feat.. I believe Jill was telling at Bernards Heath. I feel like we've often been ships passing in the night during our politically active time in St Albans. Mostly at counts I imagine tho. Jill Mills is thoroughly the worst person to have ever stood for council in St Albans. Greens probably would have won St Peters in 14' had she not been candidate. She did do well in the by election but very much nothing to do with her. I understand she was telling people how to vote at polling station on the day She seems to have been sidelined which can't hurt. I was friendly with a few people who knew your young candidate in that by election. Two or three friends of mine went to school with him Were you at that count? The most memorable thing for me at that count was seeing Michelle from Big Brother who turned out to be married to one of the Tory candidates - utterly incongruous. I don't think either of my candidates were there so it was only myself from UKIP and I was hanging out with the Tories there |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 17, 2023 8:24:03 GMT
I believe Jill was telling at Bernards Heath. I feel like we've often been ships passing in the night during our politically active time in St Albans. Mostly at counts I imagine tho. Jill Mills is thoroughly the worst person to have ever stood for council in St Albans. Greens probably would have won St Peters in 14' had she not been candidate. She did do well in the by election but very much nothing to do with her. I understand she was telling people how to vote at polling station on the day She seems to have been sidelined which can't hurt. I was friendly with a few people who knew your young candidate in that by election. Two or three friends of mine went to school with him Were you at that count? The most memorable thing for me at that count was seeing Michelle from Big Brother who turned out to be married to one of the Tory candidates - utterly incongruous. I don't think either of my candidates were there so it was only myself from UKIP and I was hanging out with the Tories there not that one. I usually went to counts but didn't have sm invite that time |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 17, 2023 12:58:28 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 17, 2023 23:05:34 GMT
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Post by olympian95 on Aug 17, 2023 23:10:27 GMT
Middleborough is an Indy gain (Young)
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
Member is Online
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 17, 2023 23:10:45 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 17, 2023 23:22:11 GMT
BRENT, Claire (Liberal Democrat) 201
HARRIS, Matthew (Green) 32
HUSSAIN, Sajid (Conservative) 30
RATHMELL, Jon (Independent) 5
THOMPSON, Mick (Labour) 294
YOUNG, Jackie (Independent) 390 or 319 or 318 or 380
From audio of declaration - the last was very indistinct
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 17, 2023 23:25:13 GMT
low turnout looks like it's hurt the Lib Dems. It's an area that is usually lib dem but has thrown a few surprises in. Frances Leonard being a known name might have helped too. Also unpopular decisions locally maybe |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 17, 2023 23:26:55 GMT
BRENT, Claire (Liberal Democrat) 201 HARRIS, Matthew (Green) 32 HUSSAIN, Sajid (Conservative) 30 RATHMELL, Jon (Independent) 5 THOMPSON, Mick (Labour) 294 YOUNG, Jackie (Independent) 390 or 319 or 318 or 380 From audio of declaration - the last was very indistinct Is this yet another example of the numbers being drowned out by cheering, and the stupid impertinent incompetent arrogant Returning Officer not repeating or enunciating the digits clearly? Or was it merely bad sound quality? |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Aug 17, 2023 23:36:40 GMT
St Albans looked like a banana skin: totally un-necessary by-election, large Council majority, recent by-election defeat, Tory candidate clearly strong. That looks like a good defence to me.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 17, 2023 23:41:54 GMT
BRENT, Claire (Liberal Democrat) 201 HARRIS, Matthew (Green) 32 HUSSAIN, Sajid (Conservative) 30 RATHMELL, Jon (Independent) 5 THOMPSON, Mick (Labour) 294 YOUNG, Jackie (Independent) 390 or 319 or 318 or 380 From audio of declaration - the last was very indistinct The number read out was clearly 318. |
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