mkc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 13
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Post by mkc on Aug 18, 2023 18:35:12 GMT
Middlesbrough
actual votes
Ind 318
Lab 294
LD 201
Grn 32
Con 30
Ind 5
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2023 19:10:09 GMT
St Albans looked like a banana skin: totally un-necessary by-election, large Council majority, recent by-election defeat, Tory candidate clearly strong. That looks like a good defence to me. lib Dems unnecessarily stepping down is a theme in St Albans Also a distinct lack of quality in candidates is a problem for the st Alban's Lib dems I think this can be a problem for all parties when you have a massive majority on the council and sometimes you are scraping the barrel a bit when all the most likely people are already councillors. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2023 19:38:37 GMT
Quite encouraging, particularly as our raw vote almost doubled here, and we've increased our vote on each of the last three occasions. It looks like our local party in the Boro has found its mojo again after regaining a presence on the council.. The Lib Dems were running a very active campaign in Ayresome, led by their recently elected Acklam councillor Tom Livingstone, who earned his pedigree with the Sunderland Lib Dems. I'm glad to see them lose on this occasion as they ran a cynical NIMBY campaign based on an imagined threat to green spaces in the ward – their slogan was 'memories not houses'. Jackie Young also had a fair bit of support on the doorstep and is a well-respected community activist. I imagine Young was the main challenger in the more deprived parts of the ward towards the town centre (she ran in Central ward in May), whereas Brent will have done better in the middle-class bits bordering Acklam. The Bishop is entirely correct on his assessment of the Labour campaign and candidate. All I would add is than an even worse result than this was feared, and would have occurred had the Labour campaign not pulled its finger out over the last week of the campaign. If the characterisarion of the Lib Dem campaign here is correct I would not want to defend them- I have observed such campaigns in the past and I would not hesitate to deplore them. Having said that, obviously that characterisation of the campaign is coming from a not exactly disinterested source, and I would need to know a lot more detail before I could comment further. It is always easy to dismiss a campaign against new housing as NIMBY. I am very much in favour of new building of the right sort and in the right place, but we all know a lot of developer led proposals are neither of those things and opposing them isn't necessarily to be dismissed as NIMBY. I gather that there is a suggestion is that the campaign was against something unlikely to happen anyway, so stoking fears, and that is something I would be anxious about if true-but often such things come out of something being stirred by developers- it can be very complicated, and I would need a lot of time to understand just what was going on in this case. In general I would fear over-complacency more, and often the local connections between planning authority and developers, including borderline corruption. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 18, 2023 19:44:33 GMT
lib Dems unnecessarily stepping down is a theme in St Albans Also a distinct lack of quality in candidates is a problem for the st Alban's Lib dems I think this can be a problem for all parties when you have a massive majority on the council and sometimes you are scraping the barrel a bit when all the most likely people are already councillors. this is true |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 18, 2023 20:13:21 GMT
different demographic. Both St Peters and Clarence have had a decent left leaning vote. St Peters more so but now Clarence has taken in parts of Ashley that has helped the Greens. Marshalswick has never been a strength for left leaning parties. There was a by election in 15' where Greens did well but most of that ward isn't in this one. Around the quad and maybe parts of jersey farm there's probably decent vote that Greens could get. Rest of ward though is fairly affluent lib/con swing voters Surprised to see Frances Leonard put her hat in tho None of the old Marshalswick South is in this ward. This takes the Eastern half of the old Marhsalswich North together with Jersey Farm. Marshalswick West contains the Marshalswick part of the old Marshalswick South. But Green support was concentrated in the Sandridge New Town area in Bernards Heath. I was active in that by-election and spent quite a bit of the day telling at Bernards Heath infants school where that Green woman was most of the time (Jill Mills? Can't be arsed to check). She was the most annoying person I encountered in the time I was politically active in St Albans, which given the number of Lib Dems involved was quite a feat.. Yes Marshalswick South was a pretty annoying ward both Labour & the Greens (Labour from memory I think got a few distant-ish second places in Marshalwick South) as both have fairly high potential support in Sandridge New Town but very little in the Marshalswick part (which are some of the wealthiest and most snooty roads in the whole of St Albans). The new Bernards Heath ward could be interesting going forward though if the Tories fail to recover as a credible opposition and the challenge to Lib Dem hegemony ends up coming from their left. Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm a pretty good result for the Tories in the circumstances. Their vote in Jersey Farm has proved to be remarkably sticky despite it being a pretty (though not overwhelmingly) Remainy area though I guess the Lib Dem vote in the Marshalwick part has unwound somewhat from their heyday when their councillors were deeply entrenched (it was a huge shock locally when Geoff Churchard lost in 2015 despite the national Lib Dem meltdown). I'm not sure Jersey Farm has a much in the way of a potential Green vote as mattbewilson says but I suppose there might be a bit around the bottom of House Lane, although the bulk of the potential vote in this ward would come from the flats around the Quadrant but the Lib Dems have this completely squeezed as the result shows. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 18, 2023 20:40:40 GMT
I do hope that the fact that our candidate in St Albans appeared to be a hijab-wearing muslim woman didn't affect the result in any way.
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 18, 2023 20:48:50 GMT
I do hope that the fact that our candidate in St Albans appeared to be a hijab-wearing muslim woman didn't affect the result in any way. I mean it's a possibility but the result was fairly in line with May. The Lib Dems are the incumbent administration with a huge majority, the resignation was part of a trend and people locally (my parents as an example, my dad has a particular dislike of John Hale the county councillor as he never replies to emails apparently) are regularly moaning about the council for various things. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2023 21:04:42 GMT
I do hope that the fact that our candidate in St Albans appeared to be a hijab-wearing muslim woman didn't affect the result in any way. Looking at her twitter account, it does seem she is very focused on the interests and concerns of her own 'community' (Bangladeshi and Muslim). I don't think they would be particularly culpable if some of the overwhelmingly non-Bangladeshi, non-muslim voters of this ward concluded she might not be the best person to represent their interests. Also she's from the Cottonmill. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 18, 2023 21:06:40 GMT
I do hope that the fact that our candidate in St Albans appeared to be a hijab-wearing muslim woman didn't affect the result in any way. Looking at her twitter account, it does seem she is very focused on the interests and concerns of her own 'community' (Bangladeshi and Muslim). I don't think they would be particularly culpable if some of the overwhelmingly non-Bangladeshi, non-muslim voters of this ward concluded she might not be the best person to represent their interests. Also she's from the Cottonmill. Explain your last sentence to non-locals. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2023 21:14:53 GMT
Looking at her twitter account, it does seem she is very focused on the interests and concerns of her own 'community' (Bangladeshi and Muslim). I don't think they would be particularly culpable if some of the overwhelmingly non-Bangladeshi, non-muslim voters of this ward concluded she might not be the best person to represent their interests. Also she's from the Cottonmill. Explain your last sentence to non-locals. Its the opposite side of town. People in St Albans aren't especially obsessed about candidates being hyper-local, but it does look like she has no prior connection to the area she now represents (unless she has moved recently). And the Tory candidate was very local and a longstanding former councillor. Actually I agree with pepperminttea that this is a perfectly normal result for this ward which does not require the kind of explanation you offered. This is one of the better Conservative wards in the district and will be eminently winnable if and when the Lib Dem council becomes unpopular. But it might be perfectly rational for some voters to allow this to influence their choice. I've no doubt that had she stood in Sopwell, the fact that she was a hijab wearing woman would have affected the result in some way, but in the opposite way to that which you're hinting at here. I suppose you would have a problem with that too? |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 18, 2023 21:23:39 GMT
Looking at her twitter account, it does seem she is very focused on the interests and concerns of her own 'community' (Bangladeshi and Muslim). I don't think they would be particularly culpable if some of the overwhelmingly non-Bangladeshi, non-muslim voters of this ward concluded she might not be the best person to represent their interests. Also she's from the Cottonmill. Explain your last sentence to non-locals. It's in Sopwell ward, which is the poorest most ethically diverse ward in St Albans. It is really 'natural' Labour territory but given their local collapse the Lib Dems have basically just taken it over. The Lib Dem's other two councillors (Lorraine Kirby & Raj Vishram) have made themselves fairly visible in this ward (unlike the CC John Hale who is MIA) so if Pete is right and their new councillor doesn't pivot she'll definitely be the favourite to lose in 2025 when (presumably) the Tories are out of government. She will especially struggle if Frances Leonard, who is generally well regarded (unlike Lyn Bolton or Beric Reid who I've generally found to be insufferable), runs again for the Tories. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2023 21:34:29 GMT
Explain your last sentence to non-locals. It's in Sopwell ward, which is the poorest most ethically diverse ward in St Albans. It is really 'natural' Labour territory but given their local collapse the Lib Dems have basically just taken it over. The Lib Dem's other two councillors (Lorraine Kirby & Raj Vishram) have made themselves fairly visible in this ward (unlike the CC John Hale who is MIA) so if Pete is right and their new councillor doesn't pivot she'll definitely be the favourite to lose in 2025 when (presumably) the Tories are out of government. She will especially struggle if Frances Leonard, who is generally well regarded (unlike Lyn Bolton or Beric Reid who I've generally found to be insufferable), runs again for the Tories. Her seat is up next May. Potentially could be the same day as the general election but that may not help the Tories as much here as in other places, given in half the ward she'll have Daisy Cooper's coattails to cling to. The timing may work out well for her. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 18, 2023 21:39:46 GMT
It's in Sopwell ward, which is the poorest most ethically diverse ward in St Albans. It is really 'natural' Labour territory but given their local collapse the Lib Dems have basically just taken it over. The Lib Dem's other two councillors (Lorraine Kirby & Raj Vishram) have made themselves fairly visible in this ward (unlike the CC John Hale who is MIA) so if Pete is right and their new councillor doesn't pivot she'll definitely be the favourite to lose in 2025 when (presumably) the Tories are out of government. She will especially struggle if Frances Leonard, who is generally well regarded (unlike Lyn Bolton or Beric Reid who I've generally found to be insufferable), runs again for the Tories. Her seat is up next May. Potentially could be the same day as the general election but that may not help the Tories as much here as in other places, given in half the ward she'll have Daisy Cooper's coattails to cling to. The timing may work out well for her. Ah sorry got my years mixed up! That is true, although higher turnout tends to damage the Lib Dems across the board regardless of whether Con or Lab is doing badly nationally. I would be shocked if the Lib Dems sweep all before them as they did in May with General Election turnout, meaning that this ward would be definitely at least be in play. I also question that Daisy Cooper has coattails, sure she'll win easily but that's because her constituency is very demographically favourable to the current incarnation of the Lib Dems (less so this part of it, it should also be said) in the current political climate. She's certainly not a beloved local champion like a Norman Lamb or a Tim Farron, anecdotally people in the Marshalswick Part of Town (friends of my mum's mostly) moan about her a lot, for mostly fairly trivial/non-political reasons it should be noted. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Aug 19, 2023 10:00:32 GMT
St Albans looked like a banana skin: totally un-necessary by-election, large Council majority, recent by-election defeat, Tory candidate clearly strong. That looks like a good defence to me. lib Dems unnecessarily stepping down is a theme in St Albans Also a distinct lack of quality in candidates is a problem for the st Alban's Lib dems May all be true, but many local Lib Dem parties would delighted to have the sort of problems the St Albans local Party do. Let’s not get carried away. And my comment above about the Tories having a strong candidate - a diplomatic way of saying what’s now been said on thread about the Lib Dem candidate, now councillor. Good luck to her. |
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