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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 18, 2023 0:19:43 GMT
From Election Maps
Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm (St Albans) Council By-Election Result:
LDM: 46.0% (-3.8)
CON: 39.3% (+5.3)
GRN: 6.1% (-2.3)
LAB: 4.9% (-2.8)
IND: 3.7% (New)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
Ayresome (Middlesbrough) Council By-Election Result:
IND YOUNG: 36.1% (New)
LAB: 33.4% (-13.7)
LDM: 22.8% (+14.6)
GRN: 3.6% (New)
CON: 3.4% (-14.8)
IND RATHMELL: 0.6% (New)
No IND (-26.5) as previous.
Independent GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 18, 2023 6:20:12 GMT
BRENT, Claire (Liberal Democrat) 201 HARRIS, Matthew (Green) 32 HUSSAIN, Sajid (Conservative) 30 RATHMELL, Jon (Independent) 5 THOMPSON, Mick (Labour) 294 YOUNG, Jackie (Independent) 390 or 319 or 318 or 380 From audio of declaration - the last was very indistinct Is this yet another example of the numbers being drowned out by cheering, and the stupid impertinent incompetent arrogant Returning Officer not repeating or enunciating the digits clearly? Or was it merely bad sound quality? I had the volume very low so I didn't wake my wife up, and the RO had a soft voice, and didn't really finish the 'and' so it was ambiguous whether she said 'an n-' or 'an e-'. I listened a few times and heard it differently each time, and once you've done that, it becomes difficult to decide which is the actual reading. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 18, 2023 6:48:57 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +30
Grn -3
Con -11
Lab -43
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Post by andrewp on Aug 18, 2023 7:36:21 GMT
Excluding countermanded elections, there have now been 38 ordinary by elections since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 10 - Held 3 and lost 7: 3 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to Labour( retention rate 30% ), and have gained 2
Labour have defended 16- Held 9 and lost 7: 2 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 1 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 56%) and have gained 3
Lib Dem’s have defended 6: Held 5 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 4
Greens have defended 2: Held 1 and lost 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5
Independents have defended 1. Held 1. And have gained 4.
Residents have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 2. Lost 2- both to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Overall net changes
Con -5
Lab -4
LD +3
Green +4
Ind +4
SNP -2
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2023 7:54:02 GMT
Excluding countermanded elections, there have now been 38 ordinary by elections since May 4th. The Conservatives have defended 10 - Held 3 and lost 7: 3 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to Labour( retention rate 30% ), and have gained 2 Labour have defended 16- Held 9 and lost 7: 2 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 1 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 56%) and have gained 3 Lib Dem’s have defended 6: Held 5 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 4 Greens have defended 2: Held 1 and lost 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5 Independents have defended 1. Held 1 and gained 3 Residents have defended 1, held 1 SNP have defended 2. Lost 2- both to Labour ( retention rate 0%) Overall net changes Con -5 Lab -4 LD +3 Green +4 Ind +4 SNP -2 Is it me but I can't quite make those sums add up? e.g. the Indies have held 1 and gained 3 but come out as overall +4? |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 18, 2023 7:57:34 GMT
Excluding countermanded elections, there have now been 38 ordinary by elections since May 4th. The Conservatives have defended 10 - Held 3 and lost 7: 3 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to Labour( retention rate 30% ), and have gained 2 Labour have defended 16- Held 9 and lost 7: 2 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 1 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 56%) and have gained 3 Lib Dem’s have defended 6: Held 5 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 4 Greens have defended 2: Held 1 and lost 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5 Independents have defended 1. Held 1 and gained 3 Residents have defended 1, held 1 SNP have defended 2. Lost 2- both to Labour ( retention rate 0%) Overall net changes Con -5 Lab -4 LD +3 Green +4 Ind +4 SNP -2 Is it me but I can't quite make those sums add up? e.g. the Indies have held 1 and gained 3 but come out as overall +4? No you are correct.Indies have gained 4, 3 from Labour and 1 from the Greens. Have amended the sentence on the Indies in the original post. The overall net change numbers are correct. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 18, 2023 8:24:29 GMT
From Election MapsAyresome (Middlesbrough) Council By-Election Result: IND YOUNG: 36.1% (New) LAB: 33.4% (-13.7) LDM: 22.8% (+14.6) GRN: 3.6% (New) CON: 3.4% (-14.8) IND RATHMELL: 0.6% (New) No IND (-26.5) as previous. Independent GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2023. Quite encouraging, particularly as our raw vote almost doubled here, and we've increased our vote on each of the last three occasions. It looks like our local party in the Boro has found its mojo again after regaining a presence on the council.. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2023 9:35:06 GMT
From what I have heard, Labour actually thought you were the main challengers.
Poor campaign and candidate from us according to informed accounts posted in the red room, which makes only losing it narrowly in the end all the more frustrating.
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iang
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Post by iang on Aug 18, 2023 9:44:38 GMT
From what I have heard, Labour actually thought you were the main challengers. Poor campaign and candidate from us according to informed accounts posted in the red room, which makes only losing it narrowly in the end all the more frustrating. What was the issue with the candidate? He seems quite high profile - was he a previous Mayoral candidate? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2023 9:47:27 GMT
From what I have heard, Labour actually thought you were the main challengers. Poor campaign and candidate from us according to informed accounts posted in the red room, which makes only losing it narrowly in the end all the more frustrating. What was the issue with the candidate? He seems quite high profile - was he a previous Mayoral candidate? He was, and is widely regarded as not fighting a good campaign then. Plus he has other "baggage". It will have likely looked to some locals as an attempt to get him on the council no matter what. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Aug 18, 2023 9:52:52 GMT
What's the "baggage", assuming it's appropriate to say?
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2023 9:56:55 GMT
Yes, my prediction, which I realise would have appeared startling to most contributors at the time, was based on chat in the red room which suggested that Labour were likely to lose and that the LDs were fighting an effective campaign whereas Labour were not and had a poor candidate identified as a serial loser.
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Aug 18, 2023 10:02:38 GMT
From Election MapsAyresome (Middlesbrough) Council By-Election Result: IND YOUNG: 36.1% (New) LAB: 33.4% (-13.7) LDM: 22.8% (+14.6) GRN: 3.6% (New) CON: 3.4% (-14.8) IND RATHMELL: 0.6% (New) No IND (-26.5) as previous. Independent GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2023. Quite encouraging, particularly as our raw vote almost doubled here, and we've increased our vote on each of the last three occasions. It looks like our local party in the Boro has found its mojo again after regaining a presence on the council.. The Lib Dems were running a very active campaign in Ayresome, led by their recently elected Acklam councillor Tom Livingstone, who earned his pedigree with the Sunderland Lib Dems. I'm glad to see them lose on this occasion as they ran a cynical NIMBY campaign based on an imagined threat to green spaces in the ward – their slogan was 'memories not houses'. Jackie Young also had a fair bit of support on the doorstep and is a well-respected community activist. I imagine Young was the main challenger in the more deprived parts of the ward towards the town centre (she ran in Central ward in May), whereas Brent will have done better in the middle-class bits bordering Acklam. The Bishop is entirely correct on his assessment of the Labour campaign and candidate. All I would add is than an even worse result than this was feared, and would have occurred had the Labour campaign not pulled its finger out over the last week of the campaign. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2023 10:23:52 GMT
Quite encouraging, particularly as our raw vote almost doubled here, and we've increased our vote on each of the last three occasions. It looks like our local party in the Boro has found its mojo again after regaining a presence on the council.. The Lib Dems were running a very active campaign in Ayresome, led by their recently elected Acklam councillor Tom Livingstone, who earned his pedigree with the Sunderland Lib Dems. I'm glad to see them lose on this occasion as they ran a cynical NIMBY campaign based on an imagined threat to green spaces in the ward – their slogan was 'memories not houses'. Jackie Young also had a fair bit of support on the doorstep and is a well-respected community activist. I imagine Young was the main challenger in the more deprived parts of the ward towards the town centre (she ran in Central ward in May), whereas Brent will have done better in the middle-class bits bordering Acklam. The Bishop is entirely correct on his assessment of the Labour campaign and candidate. All I would add is than an even worse result than this was feared, and would have occurred had the Labour campaign not pulled its finger out over the last week of the campaign. That's very interesting. Am I right in assuming the Lab partial recovery in the last week was at the expense of theLib Dems, given that was where you saw the threat, and maybe you underestimated the Jackie Young challenge? |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Aug 18, 2023 10:40:10 GMT
The Lib Dems were running a very active campaign in Ayresome, led by their recently elected Acklam councillor Tom Livingstone, who earned his pedigree with the Sunderland Lib Dems. I'm glad to see them lose on this occasion as they ran a cynical NIMBY campaign based on an imagined threat to green spaces in the ward – their slogan was 'memories not houses'. Jackie Young also had a fair bit of support on the doorstep and is a well-respected community activist. I imagine Young was the main challenger in the more deprived parts of the ward towards the town centre (she ran in Central ward in May), whereas Brent will have done better in the middle-class bits bordering Acklam. The Bishop is entirely correct on his assessment of the Labour campaign and candidate. All I would add is than an even worse result than this was feared, and would have occurred had the Labour campaign not pulled its finger out over the last week of the campaign. That's very interesting. Am I right in assuming the Lab partial recovery in the last week was at the expense of theLib Dems, given that was where you saw the threat, and maybe you underestimated the Jackie Young challenge? That could well be right. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 18, 2023 11:11:37 GMT
Quite encouraging, particularly as our raw vote almost doubled here, and we've increased our vote on each of the last three occasions. It looks like our local party in the Boro has found its mojo again after regaining a presence on the council.. The Lib Dems were running a very active campaign in Ayresome, led by their recently elected Acklam councillor Tom Livingstone, who earned his pedigree with the Sunderland Lib Dems. I'm glad to see them lose on this occasion as they ran a cynical NIMBY campaign based on an imagined threat to green spaces in the ward – their slogan was 'memories not houses'. Jackie Young also had a fair bit of support on the doorstep and is a well-respected community activist. I imagine Young was the main challenger in the more deprived parts of the ward towards the town centre (she ran in Central ward in May), whereas Brent will have done better in the middle-class bits bordering Acklam. The Bishop is entirely correct on his assessment of the Labour campaign and candidate. All I would add is than an even worse result than this was feared, and would have occurred had the Labour campaign not pulled its finger out over the last week of the campaign. I am detecting this year in these columns a much less tribal and more realistic assessment of by-elections and candidate quality from all three majors, which I find very welcome and beneficial to sensible discussion. |
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2023 12:05:44 GMT
That may be true. In the end, there's no point in spinning either polls or elections as it fools almost no-one, and certainly not the voters in general. If your party is fighting a poor campaign, or is destined to lose, it's better to acknowledge that rather than sing la-la-la & pretend that all is well when it isn't. Of course, in terms of national polls my party is in a strong position, but we are still capable, as this Middlesbrough result clearly shows, of losing in places where we really shouldn't at times. Maybe it's just the case that the most idiotically partisan people from the major parties on this forum don't tend to comment on local by-elections very much (I mean, I'm partisan, but I don't see the point in predicting Labour will win when we really won't). There were certainly some people of that description in UK Polling Report in its heyday.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 18, 2023 12:31:50 GMT
I think it's also true to say that Labour is performing less well in local government by-elections than in national polls or (with the partial exception of Uxbridge) Westminster by-elections. Some of this will be about campaigning levels, some may be about who turns out for which elections, some of it is that there are very few popular local councils anywhere and given the areas represented, the budgets and the issues encountered, that's probably likely to affect Labour councils more than the norm.
The Tories are doing about as badly as the national polls imply, but the notable thing there is the willingness of the electorate to align behind whoever is best placed to beat them.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 18, 2023 12:46:44 GMT
That may be true. In the end, there's no point in spinning either polls or elections as it fools almost no-one, and certainly not the voters in general. If your party is fighting a poor campaign, or is destined to lose, it's better to acknowledge that rather than sing la-la-la & pretend that all is well when it isn't. Of course, in terms of national polls my party is in a strong position, but we are still capable, as this Middlesbrough result clearly shows, of losing in places where we really shouldn't at times. Maybe it's just the case that the most idiotically partisan people from the major parties on this forum don't tend to comment on local by-elections very much (I mean, I'm partisan, but I don't see the point in predicting Labour will win when we really won't). There were certainly some people of that description in UK Polling Report in its heyday. Agree all that. There are elements in LDs who ramp a bit and get euphoria from small effects, and some Greens who are into the outer-space of reality as to prospects. The thing I like is the after-election improved disquisition with a readiness to point up poor campaigns, poor candidate choice and weakness in local party. It has to be after-the-event of course. There has to be a degree of loyal suppport and expectation management during the course of. We all understand that I am sure. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 18, 2023 12:46:59 GMT
St Albans looked like a banana skin: totally un-necessary by-election, large Council majority, recent by-election defeat, Tory candidate clearly strong. That looks like a good defence to me. lib Dems unnecessarily stepping down is a theme in St Albans Also a distinct lack of quality in candidates is a problem for the st Alban's Lib dems |
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