Conclusions from last night's byelections

[batman]

The part of Mid Beds where Alistair Strathern is not standing is a very likely Tory regain. He will certainly fancy his chances of winning Hitchin though.

[zoe]

HS2 still quite unpopular In Chesham and Amersham.

[stb12]

Simon Baynes is certainly banking on North Shropshire being won back

[The Bishop]

Isn't his old seat basically being abolished though?

[batman]

Simon Baynes's is yes.

[Sibboleth]

Bits of it are cut up and thrown all over the place, seemingly at random. The name was bad, but there was a certain logic to the constituency at it followed the line of the Dee and the old London Road (now the A5). But the people who drew the constituencies in Wales this time around are unfamiliar with the concept of geography. Of course if the constituency still existed he would be heading for defeat anyway.

[greenhert]

May 9, 2024 14:15:34 GMT Sibboleth said:

Bits of it are cut up and thrown all over the place, seemingly at random. The name was bad, but there was a certain logic to the constituency at it followed the line of the Dee and the old London Road (now the A5). But the people who drew the constituencies in Wales this time around are unfamiliar with the concept of geography. Of course if the constituency still existed he would be heading for defeat anyway.

The biggest problem with the Welsh constituencies was the removal of the geographical consideration clause that protected the constituencies in Gwynedd and Powys, for example, and the 5% limit, not the geography issues.

[johng]

May 9, 2024 13:00:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't his old seat basically being abolished though?

Yes, split four ways. Three of which have incumbent Tory MPs who are all standing again, and the other is an absolute no hoper for them.
Of the three new Tory seats, two of them seem like very likely Labour gains.
I think most would have done the same in his situation.

May 9, 2024 14:15:34 GMT Sibboleth said:

Bits of it are cut up and thrown all over the place, seemingly at random. The name was bad, but there was a certain logic to the constituency at it followed the line of the Dee and the old London Road (now the A5). But the people who drew the constituencies in Wales this time around are unfamiliar with the concept of geography. Of course if the constituency still existed he would be heading for defeat anyway.

To be fair, it wasn't an easy job to cut Wales (- Ynys Mon) into 31 constituencies.

Powys is too big for 1 seat and too small for one. It links very poorly to the west (and Ceredigion connects better to the south). So Montgomeryshire had to take something from North Wales.

[johng]

May 9, 2024 18:54:52 GMT greenhert said:

May 9, 2024 14:15:34 GMT Sibboleth said:

Bits of it are cut up and thrown all over the place, seemingly at random. The name was bad, but there was a certain logic to the constituency at it followed the line of the Dee and the old London Road (now the A5). But the people who drew the constituencies in Wales this time around are unfamiliar with the concept of geography. Of course if the constituency still existed he would be heading for defeat anyway.

The biggest problem with the Welsh constituencies was the removal of the geographical consideration clause that protected the constituencies in Gwynedd and Powys, for example, and the 5% limit, not the geography issues.

Gwynedd and Ynys Mon should be linked together. That's clear. Though I believe on the current electorate, they'd need to nibble a few wards off somewhere else to make the numbers work for two seats.

[Chris from Brum]

May 9, 2024 8:50:17 GMT Rural Radical said:

Oct 21, 2023 12:18:21 GMT @weld said:

If it’s like 1997 and the Tories only win one seat back - I’d expect it to be Tamworth. I think they’ll get a few more back most likely. Chesham & Amersham might stay LD.

I think Labour will hold Tamworth tbh.
North Shropshire is more likely to go back though the boundary changes move a strong Tory area out of the seat.

If Helen Morgan doesn't hold North Shropshire it won't be for the lack of effort. She seems determined to meet everyone in the constituency at least once.

[Foggy]

May 9, 2024 14:15:34 GMT Sibboleth said:

Bits of it are cut up and thrown all over the place, seemingly at random. The name was bad, but there was a certain logic to the constituency at it followed the line of the Dee and the old London Road (now the A5). But the people who drew the constituencies in Wales this time around are unfamiliar with the concept of geography. 

The English Commissioners when looking at the South West: *hold our cider*

[East Anglian Lefty]

May 9, 2024 19:28:25 GMT johng said:

May 9, 2024 14:15:34 GMT Sibboleth said:

Bits of it are cut up and thrown all over the place, seemingly at random. The name was bad, but there was a certain logic to the constituency at it followed the line of the Dee and the old London Road (now the A5). But the people who drew the constituencies in Wales this time around are unfamiliar with the concept of geography. Of course if the constituency still existed he would be heading for defeat anyway.

To be fair, it wasn't an easy job to cut Wales (- Ynys Mon) into 31 constituencies.

Powys is too big for 1 seat and too small for one. It links very poorly to the west (and Ceredigion connects better to the south). So Montgomeryshire had to take something from North Wales.

Powys links fine to the north-west. Areas on both sides of the Dyfi used to be administered from Machynlleth before the 1970s and there's a major trunk road running from Powys to Gwynedd.

[Sibboleth]

The dark secret is that 'Powys' is not a natural or meaningful unit. Its three counties are all quite different and pull in different directions.

[iainbhx]

May 10, 2024 14:18:56 GMT Sibboleth said:

The dark secret is that 'Powys' is not a natural or meaningful unit. Its three counties are all quite different and pull in different directions.

There's an argument that Brecknockshire pulls two different ways at least.

It would be much easier if we had Sir Henffordd and Sir Amwythig.

[Chris from Brum]

"Poor Radnorsheer, poor Radnorsheer,
Never a park, and never a deer,
Never a squire of five hundred a year,
Save Richard Fowler of Abbey-Cwm-hir."

[Sibboleth]

Back under the old local government system, Radnor County Council was kept afloat surprisingly well by a single ratepayer that happened to contribute far more than 50% of the total rates taken: Birmingham City Council.

[edgbaston]

May 10, 2024 22:23:51 GMT Sibboleth said:

Back under the old local government system, Radnor County Council was kept afloat surprisingly well by a single ratepayer that happened to contribute far more than 50% of the total rates taken: Birmingham City Council.

Rates on 1 reservoir were worth more in £ than all the rates from businesses and households in the rest of the county put together?

[iainbhx]

May 10, 2024 22:28:00 GMT edgbaston said:

May 10, 2024 22:23:51 GMT Sibboleth said:

Back under the old local government system, Radnor County Council was kept afloat surprisingly well by a single ratepayer that happened to contribute far more than 50% of the total rates taken: Birmingham City Council.

Rates on 1 reservoir were worth more in £ than all the rates from businesses and households in the rest of the county put together?

In 1971, the total population of Radnorshire was smaller than the electorate of 18 of the 40-odd wards in Birmingham. A huge dam and associated works with a large rateable value would easily pay more rates in value than the households and small businesses of the small and sparsely populated county and you can be sure that RCC would have screwed up the rateable value as high as possible and because of the difference in size, BCC wouldn't even have blinked.

[maxque]

May 10, 2024 22:43:08 GMT iainbhx said:

May 10, 2024 22:28:00 GMT edgbaston said:

Rates on 1 reservoir were worth more in £ than all the rates from businesses and households in the rest of the county put together?

In 1971, the total population of Radnorshire was smaller than the electorate of 18 of the 40-odd wards in Birmingham. A huge dam and associated works with a large rateable value would easily pay more rates in value than the households and small businesses of the small and sparsely populated county and you can be sure that RCC would have screwed up the rateable value as high as possible and because of the difference in size, BCC wouldn't even have blinked.

It was split in 3 urban districts and 5 rural districts! Some of them must have been ridiculously small.

[iainbhx]

May 10, 2024 22:49:22 GMT maxque said:

May 10, 2024 22:43:08 GMT iainbhx said:

In 1971, the total population of Radnorshire was smaller than the electorate of 18 of the 40-odd wards in Birmingham. A huge dam and associated works with a large rateable value would easily pay more rates in value than the households and small businesses of the small and sparsely populated county and you can be sure that RCC would have screwed up the rateable value as high as possible and because of the difference in size, BCC wouldn't even have blinked.

It was split in 3 urban districts and 5 rural districts! Some of them must have been ridiculously small.

They were divided up fairly equally, yes, they were small but a lot of RD's were and there were some tiny UD's as well. None of them had a population of less than 1,000 in 1971 and it would have been larger when they were set up.