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Post by middleenglander on Jul 21, 2023 17:24:50 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. Firstly the figures comparing 2023 to 2019:
| Selby & Ainsty | Somerton & Frome | Uxbridge & Ruislip South | 2023 turnout | 44.8% | 44.2% | 46.3% | 2019 turnout | 72.0% | 75.6% | 68.5% | Change in turnout | -27.2% | -31.4% | -17.3% | Change in number of votes |
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| - Conservative | -21,700 | -26,051 | -11,386 | - Labour | +2,598 | -7,345 | -4,671 | - Liberal Democrat | -3,654 | +4,170 | -2,500 | - Labour + Liberal Democrat | -1,056 | -3,175 | -7,171 | - Green | +15 | +649 | -197 | - sub-total | -22,741 | -28,577 | -18,754 | - others contesting both 2023 and 2019 | -397 | - | -194 | - others contesting 2019 but not 2023 | - | - | -102 | - Reform / Reclaim in 2023 | 1,332 | 1,303 | 714 | - others in 2023 | 1,195 | 1,166 | 1,074 | Total change in number of votes | -20,611 | -26,108 | -17,262 | |
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| Reduced Conservative vote / total change in votes | 105% | 99.8% | 66% |
I suggest Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome show very similar characteristics if Labour and the Liberal Democrat were to be interchanged. These two results are almost entirely explained by a "strike" of Conservative voters. There is every indication they just stayed at home with little to suggest that many voted for other parties, certainly not Labour / Liberal Democrat in any great number. On the other hand Uxbridge and Ruislip South appears to be more like an unremarkable mid-term election where the turnout is well down with the governing party losing more votes than the uninspiring opposition. The ULEZ may well have been the catalyst to have given this overall result. The strategic requirement for the Conservatives is simple - to inspire their supporters to turnout on election day. This could be considered unlikely to occur by adopting a "steady as she goes" policy. Uxbridge & Ruislip South does show there is still some mileage to be gained from "a fear of what the opposition will do". But promises of "jam tomorrow" are highly unlikely to be sufficient to enthuse large numbers of Conservative voters. Nevertheless if the Conservatives get their act together, and that may be a very big if, then a result more like 1992 rather than 1997 is certainly possible in 2024.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 21, 2023 17:44:40 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. Firstly the figures comparing 2023 to 2019:
| Selby & Ainsty | Somerton & Frome | Uxbridge & Ruislip South | 2023 turnout | 44.8% | 44.2% | 46.3% | 2019 turnout | 72.0% | 75.6% | 68.5% | Change in turnout | -27.2% | -31.4% | -17.3% | Change in number of votes |
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| - Conservative | -21,700 | -26,051 | -11,386 | - Labour | +2,598 | -7,345 | -4,671 | - Liberal Democrat | -3,654 | +4,170 | -2,500 | - Labour + Liberal Democrat | -1,056 | -3,175 | -7,171 | - Green | +15 | +649 | -197 | - sub-total | -22,741 | -28,577 | -18,754 | - others contesting both 2023 and 2019 | -397 | - | -194 | - others contesting 2019 but not 2023 | - | - | -102 | - Reform / Reclaim in 2023 | 1,332 | 1,303 | 714 | - others in 2023 | 1,195 | 1,166 | 1,074 | Total change in number of votes | -20,611 | -26,108 | -17,262 | |
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| Reduced Conservative vote / total change in votes | 105% | 99.8% | 66% |
I suggest Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome show very similar characteristics if Labour and the Liberal Democrat were to be interchanged. These two results are almost entirely explained by a "strike" of Conservative voters. There is every indication they just stayed at home with little to suggest that many voted for other parties, certainly not Labour / Liberal Democrat in any great number. On the other hand Uxbridge and Ruislip South appears to be more like an unremarkable mid-term election where the turnout is well down with the governing party losing more votes than the uninspiring opposition. The ULEZ may well have been the catalyst to have given this overall result. The strategic requirement for the Conservatives is simple - to inspire their supporters to turnout on election day. This could be considered unlikely to occur by adopting a "steady as she goes" policy. Uxbridge & Ruislip South does show there is still some mileage to be gained from "a fear of what the opposition will do". But promises of "jam tomorrow" are highly unlikely to be sufficient to enthuse large numbers of Conservative voters. Nevertheless if the Conservatives get their act together, and that may be a very big if, then a result more like 1992 rather than 1997 is certainly possible in 2024. Or like February 1974 which is much more likely.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 21, 2023 17:58:42 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. ] Or like February 1974 which is much more likely. The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Jul 21, 2023 18:11:41 GMT
My bet that the next general election will have lowest turnout of general elections since 1945 is looking a bit better.
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 21, 2023 18:20:34 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. ] Or like February 1974 which is much more likely. The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely. Maybe more of a reverse Corbyn where Labour are favourites to win with a comfortable majority but last minute shifts, and factors such as Labour seeming too triumphalist and complacent, a muted swing in parts of London, better than expected performance in Scotland, special circumstances in a few seats and incumbrances in others all add up to deny Labour a majority. I still think a straightforward Labour majority is on the cards as thing stand but this could be a possibility.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 18:22:18 GMT
My bet that the next general election will have lowest turnout of general elections since 1945 is looking a bit better. How much have you staked and at what odds?
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 18:25:11 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. ] Or like February 1974 which is much more likely. The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely. The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%.
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 21, 2023 18:25:14 GMT
Turnout, I think will be halfway between the 2010s turnouts we've been accustomed to and 2001.
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 21, 2023 18:26:12 GMT
The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely. The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%. Of course, such single digit leads sufficed before the impending rise of third parties as a parliamentary force.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 18:27:15 GMT
Turnout, I think will be halfway between the 2010s turnouts we've been accustomed to and 2001. Yes I'm unconvinced we'll go below 2001
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 18:27:48 GMT
The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely. The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%. The final polls has the Tories 2%-5% ahead
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 21, 2023 18:29:10 GMT
Turnout, I think will be halfway between the 2010s turnouts we've been accustomed to and 2001. Yes I'm unconvinced we'll go below 2001 . There'll be too many excited Labour supporters voting to let that happen. If the Conservatives fail to recover soon after and become a temporary headcase, as often happens to parties after a long time in government, then 2001 level turnouts could well be possible in the election after next.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 21, 2023 18:33:11 GMT
The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely. The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%. I recall one poll issued on a Sunday, whilst I was driving back to Leeds, had the Conservatives in the lead in Scotland - then a surprising finding!!
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 18:35:32 GMT
The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%. I recall one poll issued on a Sunday, whilst I was driving back to Leeds, had the Conservatives in the lead in Scotland - then a surprising finding!! in the feb 74 campaign? that wouldnt be that unlikely as the final result in scotland Labour was about 4% ahead of the tories only
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 21, 2023 18:38:05 GMT
The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%. I recall one poll issued on a Sunday, whilst I was driving back to Leeds, had the Conservatives in the lead in Scotland - then a surprising finding!! Plausible, if there was a high SNP and Liberal score, maybe something like SNP 29, Lab 30, Con 31
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 18:45:13 GMT
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Jul 21, 2023 18:47:31 GMT
My bet that the next general election will have lowest turnout of general elections since 1945 is looking a bit better. How much have you staked and at what odds? Just a tenner with a friend so no odds.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 18:49:11 GMT
How much have you staked and at what odds? Just a tenner with a friend so no odds. Best way! For democracy's sake I hope you're wrong but for your pocket's sake I hope you're right
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 21, 2023 18:52:56 GMT
My main conclusion is that environmental policy has to get a lot savvier.
Climate science is proven beyond any reasonable doubt. The Climate Change Act and our international commitments are un-unpickable. Going against this is generational suicide and all parties know it. But policymakers have got to find smarter ways through than charging people for making 'bad' choices. Whether it's air passenger duty, ULEZ, vehicle excise duty, just hitting people in the wallet is going to create a backlash where there shouldn't be. How can we get the dirty cars off the streets with minimum fuss? The arguments about a better scrappage scheme seem all the more important. And why haven't we heard about the air quality in Uxbridge and how dangerous this is to Uxbridge residents? All they see is people in Uxbridge paying to clean up the air in Zone 1.
The Tories look doomed but a harsh lesson here for those of us who want serious climate policies, they can't be implemented as badly as this and expect popular support.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 21, 2023 18:58:23 GMT
So Labour's vote went down in Uxbridge? I've seen some blaming the Lib Dems for Labour's defeat. Labour's defeat is them not turning out their own supporters.
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