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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2023 12:22:58 GMT
And Meriden. And North Norfolk. Both were Labour in 1964. Yes - but those seats had very different boundaries whereas Uxbridge and Aldridge Brownhills were pretty well unchanged. Norfolk North had exactly the same boundaries in 1997 as in 1964. Uxbridhe and Aldrdighe Brownhills did have slightly different boundaries and in Uxbridge's case at least to the extent that it might have changed the outcome. Meriden very different and would undoubtedly have voted Labour in 1997 on the 1964 boundaries |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 22, 2023 12:48:52 GMT
Yes - but those seats had very different boundaries whereas Uxbridge and Aldridge Brownhills were pretty well unchanged. Norfolk North had exactly the same boundaries in 1997 as in 1964. Uxbridhe and Aldrdighe Brownhills did have slightly different boundaries and in Uxbridge's case at least to the extent that it might have changed the outcome. Meriden very different and would undoubtedly have voted Labour in 1997 on the 1964 boundaries Ok . I was not aware that the Norfolk North boundaries prevalent 1950 - 1974 were restored post 1983. Huge demographic changes there ,of course. |
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Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 16:31:09 GMT
it's a long time since Dartford was a Labour stronghold. You have to go back to at least the 1960s for that, and it was indeed lost in 1970. Dudley & Walsall have been Labour strongholds more recently Though Sydney Irving did regain Dartford for Labour in Feb 1974 before losing again in 1979. yes I'm well aware of that, but that doesn't make Dartford a stronghold at that time. It was a marginal. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2023 22:00:22 GMT
I don't think the Uxbridge and South Ruislip result was terrible for Labour, they still managed roughly a 7% swing from the Conservatives. It has hardly a great victory for the Conservatives, maybe ULEZ did make the difference in the end between a Conservative hold or a Labour gain. It's equally valid that Labour's back tracking on the 2 child limit on child benefit may have turned off some voters in Uxbridge over the last few days, the childish "Sir Kid Starver" was trending on social media, and as Donald Trump showed... stupid nicknames stick, valid or not. The results may show that Labour cannot rely on the fact a certain demographic will turnout and vote for them no matter what, the more they water down policy platform and move more to the right on economic issues and offer less hope to younger voters on issues like the environment and housing, they are not automatically going to pick up these votes. Labour need to not just live in the past, 2023 is not 1997, offering more of the same is not going to be a vote winner, especially to those who don't even remember Blair. Of course it was a terrible result for Labour. A party purporting to be riding high in the polls. A party seemingly 14-20 points ahead of the Conservatives. A party facing a burnt out husk of a government that has motored through 5-PMs in short order and got virtually every decision for 5-years totally wrong. And crucially a government unable and unwilling to take most decisions at all. A party full of deviants and perverts and crooks continually being called to account, suspended, expelled or rejected. And in a period of 13-long-years of sore misrule. And in a constituency written off as an inevitable Labour win at the next GE by virtully everyone on this Forum for the past couple of years. But given the open goal opportunity of a by-election after the disgraced MP and sacked PM resigns in a fractious and febrile atmosphere of compete and utter disintegration. Perfect opportunity. Heaven sent opportunity. Very, very lucky opportunity. A big victory should have been certain. BUT NO!! They contrive to cock up this open goal ready made perfect situation and BLOODY WELL LOSE!! What a load of absolute wankers they must be to have LOST that by-election. That must have been actually quite difficult to lose, even if they wanted to lose. I can't quite see how they snatched the LOSS from the very jaws of VICTORY, but they did. The next GE is far from a certainty my friends if they can't win Uxbridge. Mark these words NOW!! And as for this Forum of psephologists and obsessives and anoraks? Did you all use your experience, your intelligence, your incisive analysis and show up the fault in the pundits (about whom many of you are so rude) and get it all spot on? Will DID YOU? Hours of blather and speculation, analysis and prognostication leading to 103, YES 103 WRONG ANSWERS! Don't blame me, I voted for Binface. Yeah, not winning this is somewhat disastrous given the national polling and the 2019 result and it kind of figures that absolutely nobody is enthused by Starmer. But otoh the seat still swung well left of both the last GE and the 22 local election result despite the Hindu vote issue and the single topic local greavance campaign that Labour reacted badly to. I'd gladly take any position from where this is what a disaster looks like! |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 22, 2023 23:36:58 GMT
Of course it was a terrible result for Labour. A party purporting to be riding high in the polls. A party seemingly 14-20 points ahead of the Conservatives. A party facing a burnt out husk of a government that has motored through 5-PMs in short order and got virtually every decision for 5-years totally wrong. And crucially a government unable and unwilling to take most decisions at all. A party full of deviants and perverts and crooks continually being called to account, suspended, expelled or rejected. And in a period of 13-long-years of sore misrule. And in a constituency written off as an inevitable Labour win at the next GE by virtully everyone on this Forum for the past couple of years. But given the open goal opportunity of a by-election after the disgraced MP and sacked PM resigns in a fractious and febrile atmosphere of compete and utter disintegration. Perfect opportunity. Heaven sent opportunity. Very, very lucky opportunity. A big victory should have been certain. BUT NO!! They contrive to cock up this open goal ready made perfect situation and BLOODY WELL LOSE!! What a load of absolute wankers they must be to have LOST that by-election. That must have been actually quite difficult to lose, even if they wanted to lose. I can't quite see how they snatched the LOSS from the very jaws of VICTORY, but they did. The next GE is far from a certainty my friends if they can't win Uxbridge. Mark these words NOW!! And as for this Forum of psephologists and obsessives and anoraks? Did you all use your experience, your intelligence, your incisive analysis and show up the fault in the pundits (about whom many of you are so rude) and get it all spot on? Will DID YOU? Hours of blather and speculation, analysis and prognostication leading to 103, YES 103 WRONG ANSWERS! Don't blame me, I voted for Binface. Yeah, not winning this is somewhat disastrous given the national polling and the 2019 result and it kind of figures that absolutely nobody is enthused by Starmer. But otoh the seat still swung well left of both the last GE and the 22 local election result despite the Hindu vote issue and the single topic local greavance campaign that Labour reacted badly to. I'd gladly take any position from where this is what a disaster looks like! "Don't blame me, I voted for Binface." Errrm! Binface WAS the WRONG answer! |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 23, 2023 0:46:27 GMT
6/7% is not really what where we want to be if we're wanting a majority. I don't think it'd be enough to gain our seat of Pen&Stock. But it's not a representative result. Anymore than getting 20%+ swing. At the moment it's probably somewhere down the middle of the two like 11% or something. That's now. We'll see what future holds
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 23, 2023 5:29:19 GMT
Don't blame me, I voted for Binface. Yeah, not winning this is somewhat disastrous given the national polling and the 2019 result and it kind of figures that absolutely nobody is enthused by Starmer. But otoh the seat still swung well left of both the last GE and the 22 local election result despite the Hindu vote issue and the single topic local greavance campaign that Labour reacted badly to. I'd gladly take any position from where this is what a disaster looks like! "Don't blame me, I voted for Binface." Errrm! Binface WAS the WRONG answer! Binface is never the wrong answer. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 23, 2023 5:57:21 GMT
"Don't blame me, I voted for Binface." Errrm! Binface WAS the WRONG answer! Binface is never the wrong answer. rubbish.  |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 23, 2023 10:01:36 GMT
Binface is never the wrong answer. rubbish. It's a garbage position. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 23, 2023 10:50:17 GMT
rubbish. It's a garbage position. Can we not trash Binface please… |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 23, 2023 11:04:06 GMT
Can we not trash Binface please… Is it ok to recycle this post? |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 23, 2023 11:51:33 GMT
It would be a waste not to.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 23, 2023 11:57:03 GMT
Can we not trash Binface please… Is it ok to recycle this post? Just be careful not to throw it out with the bathwater. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 23, 2023 12:19:13 GMT
6/7% is not really what where we want to be if we're wanting a majority. I don't think it'd be enough to gain our seat of Pen&Stock. But it's not a representative result. Anymore than getting 20%+ swing. At the moment it's probably somewhere down the middle of the two like 11% or something. That's now. We'll see what future holds This would give a Labour majority of 100, taking swings to and from other parties, demographic factors, and personal votes into account. I personally think this is unlikely. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2023 12:40:04 GMT
It would be a waste not to. Your puns are garbage. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 23, 2023 12:40:55 GMT
6/7% is not really what where we want to be if we're wanting a majority. I don't think it'd be enough to gain our seat of Pen&Stock. But it's not a representative result. Anymore than getting 20%+ swing. At the moment it's probably somewhere down the middle of the two like 11% or something. That's now. We'll see what future holds This would give a Labour majority of 100, taking swings to and from other parties, demographic factors, and personal votes into account. I personally think this is unlikely. Really? Looks a bit Portillo-lite to me. Bit of gnat-straining there? |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 23, 2023 13:25:23 GMT
I don't think the Uxbridge and South Ruislip result was terrible for Labour, they still managed roughly a 7% swing from the Conservatives. It has hardly a great victory for the Conservatives, maybe ULEZ did make the difference in the end between a Conservative hold or a Labour gain. It's equally valid that Labour's back tracking on the 2 child limit on child benefit may have turned off some voters in Uxbridge over the last few days, the childish "Sir Kid Starver" was trending on social media, and as Donald Trump showed... stupid nicknames stick, valid or not. The results may show that Labour cannot rely on the fact a certain demographic will turnout and vote for them no matter what, the more they water down policy platform and move more to the right on economic issues and offer less hope to younger voters on issues like the environment and housing, they are not automatically going to pick up these votes. Labour need to not just live in the past, 2023 is not 1997, offering more of the same is not going to be a vote winner, especially to those who don't even remember Blair. Of course it was a terrible result for Labour. A party purporting to be riding high in the polls. A party seemingly 14-20 points ahead of the Conservatives. A party facing a burnt out husk of a government that has motored through 5-PMs in short order and got virtually every decision for 5-years totally wrong. And crucially a government unable and unwilling to take most decisions at all. A party full of deviants and perverts and crooks continually being called to account, suspended, expelled or rejected. And in a period of 13-long-years of sore misrule. And in a constituency written off as an inevitable Labour win at the next GE by virtully everyone on this Forum for the past couple of years. But given the open goal opportunity of a by-election after the disgraced MP and sacked PM resigns in a fractious and febrile atmosphere of compete and utter disintegration. Perfect opportunity. Heaven sent opportunity. Very, very lucky opportunity. A big victory should have been certain. BUT NO!! They contrive to cock up this open goal ready made perfect situation and BLOODY WELL LOSE!! What a load of absolute wankers they must be to have LOST that by-election. That must have been actually quite difficult to lose, even if they wanted to lose. I can't quite see how they snatched the LOSS from the very jaws of VICTORY, but they did. The next GE is far from a certainty my friends if they can't win Uxbridge. Mark these words NOW!! And as for this Forum of psephologists and obsessives and anoraks? Did you all use your experience, your intelligence, your incisive analysis and show up the fault in the pundits (about whom many of you are so rude) and get it all spot on? Will DID YOU? Hours of blather and speculation, analysis and prognostication leading to 103, YES 103 WRONG ANSWERS! A typically robust and engaging post! Labour has a tradition they seem to like, that of losing elections and sometimes buggering up ones that it looked like they'd form some sort of government after(1970,1992 and 2015) so 15 months or more is a long time let alone the proverbial week in politics. As to my own personal vote I'm very torn and I suspect the morning I wake up to fill in my postal vote will be guided by a simple gut feeling-if X or Y is in number 10(I mean party rather than man as I don't have a great deal of issue with the 2 main party leaders) the day(s) after polling which one's presence would leave me wanting to 'kick the cat' |
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Jul 23, 2023 13:37:44 GMT
I don't think the Uxbridge and South Ruislip result was terrible for Labour, they still managed roughly a 7% swing from the Conservatives. It has hardly a great victory for the Conservatives, maybe ULEZ did make the difference in the end between a Conservative hold or a Labour gain. It's equally valid that Labour's back tracking on the 2 child limit on child benefit may have turned off some voters in Uxbridge over the last few days, the childish "Sir Kid Starver" was trending on social media, and as Donald Trump showed... stupid nicknames stick, valid or not. The results may show that Labour cannot rely on the fact a certain demographic will turnout and vote for them no matter what, the more they water down policy platform and move more to the right on economic issues and offer less hope to younger voters on issues like the environment and housing, they are not automatically going to pick up these votes. Labour need to not just live in the past, 2023 is not 1997, offering more of the same is not going to be a vote winner, especially to those who don't even remember Blair. Of course it was a terrible result for Labour. A party purporting to be riding high in the polls. A party seemingly 14-20 points ahead of the Conservatives. A party facing a burnt out husk of a government that has motored through 5-PMs in short order and got virtually every decision for 5-years totally wrong. And crucially a government unable and unwilling to take most decisions at all. A party full of deviants and perverts and crooks continually being called to account, suspended, expelled or rejected. And in a period of 13-long-years of sore misrule. And in a constituency written off as an inevitable Labour win at the next GE by virtully everyone on this Forum for the past couple of years. But given the open goal opportunity of a by-election after the disgraced MP and sacked PM resigns in a fractious and febrile atmosphere of compete and utter disintegration. Perfect opportunity. Heaven sent opportunity. Very, very lucky opportunity. A big victory should have been certain. BUT NO!! They contrive to cock up this open goal ready made perfect situation and BLOODY WELL LOSE!! What a load of absolute wankers they must be to have LOST that by-election. That must have been actually quite difficult to lose, even if they wanted to lose. I can't quite see how they snatched the LOSS from the very jaws of VICTORY, but they did. The next GE is far from a certainty my friends if they can't win Uxbridge. Mark these words NOW!! And as for this Forum of psephologists and obsessives and anoraks? Did you all use your experience, your intelligence, your incisive analysis and show up the fault in the pundits (about whom many of you are so rude) and get it all spot on? Will DID YOU? Hours of blather and speculation, analysis and prognostication leading to 103, YES 103 WRONG ANSWERS! lol okay, snoflake. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 23, 2023 13:46:55 GMT
Of course it was a terrible result for Labour. A party purporting to be riding high in the polls. A party seemingly 14-20 points ahead of the Conservatives. A party facing a burnt out husk of a government that has motored through 5-PMs in short order and got virtually every decision for 5-years totally wrong. And crucially a government unable and unwilling to take most decisions at all. A party full of deviants and perverts and crooks continually being called to account, suspended, expelled or rejected. And in a period of 13-long-years of sore misrule. And in a constituency written off as an inevitable Labour win at the next GE by virtully everyone on this Forum for the past couple of years. But given the open goal opportunity of a by-election after the disgraced MP and sacked PM resigns in a fractious and febrile atmosphere of compete and utter disintegration. Perfect opportunity. Heaven sent opportunity. Very, very lucky opportunity. A big victory should have been certain. BUT NO!! They contrive to cock up this open goal ready made perfect situation and BLOODY WELL LOSE!! What a load of absolute wankers they must be to have LOST that by-election. That must have been actually quite difficult to lose, even if they wanted to lose. I can't quite see how they snatched the LOSS from the very jaws of VICTORY, but they did. The next GE is far from a certainty my friends if they can't win Uxbridge. Mark these words NOW!! And as for this Forum of psephologists and obsessives and anoraks? Did you all use your experience, your intelligence, your incisive analysis and show up the fault in the pundits (about whom many of you are so rude) and get it all spot on? Will DID YOU? Hours of blather and speculation, analysis and prognostication leading to 103, YES 103 WRONG ANSWERS! lol okay, snoflake. How does my post confer the attribution 'Snoflake'? Commendation on the spelling though! My brands of Woden and Snoflake are HERE! I did not vote in that by-election nor in the Forum poll. I do not support the Conservative party. If I had been in the consituency I might not have voted at all except to attempt to diss the wimpish twerp. What is so funny TO YOU about not winning Uxbridge? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 23, 2023 13:53:12 GMT
So Labour's vote went down in Uxbridge? I've seen some blaming the Lib Dems for Labour's defeat. Labour's defeat is them not turning out their own supporters. Shock horror. Votes going down in a by-election with a 46.2% turnout compared to a general election with a 68.5% show. I now see where your username comes from! |
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