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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2023 14:09:59 GMT
Dudley West 1994: "Labour actually polled fewer votes in the byelection than they did in the 1992 general election; all this proves is Conservative voters are staying at home"
South East Staffordshire 1996: "Labour only got 4,000 more votes than the last general election; they're just not getting a lot of extra voters"
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Post by greenhert on Jul 23, 2023 16:08:46 GMT
This would give a Labour majority of 100, taking swings to and from other parties, demographic factors, and personal votes into account. I personally think this is unlikely. Really? Looks a bit Portillo-lite to me. Bit of gnat-straining there? I seriously doubt Labour will gain a majority of 100 at the next general election-30 is more realistic, especially with the SNP still in clearly a better position than in 1997 despite its recent woes. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 23, 2023 16:52:56 GMT
So Labour's vote went down in Uxbridge? I've seen some blaming the Lib Dems for Labour's defeat. Labour's defeat is them not turning out their own supporters. Shock horror. Votes going down in a by-election with a 46.2% turnout compared to a general election with a 68.5% show. I now see where your username comes from! Again, look at the table in the first post of this thread. Labour's vote went up in Selby. The Lib Dems vote went up in Somerton. Labour's vote went down in Uxbridge. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 23, 2023 22:51:21 GMT
Shock horror. Votes going down in a by-election with a 46.2% turnout compared to a general election with a 68.5% show. I now see where your username comes from! Again, look at the table in the first post of this thread. Labour's vote went up in Selby. The Lib Dems vote went up in Somerton. Labour's vote went down in Uxbridge. You need to learn that when you blunder yourself into a hole, the best approach is to stop digging. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2023 4:15:24 GMT
Dudley West 1994: "Labour actually polled fewer votes in the byelection than they did in the 1992 general election; all this proves is Conservative voters are staying at home" South East Staffordshire 1996: "Labour only got 4,000 more votes than the last general election; they're just not getting a lot of extra voters" They’ll trot this out if Labour wins Tamworth, won’t they? |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 24, 2023 4:48:00 GMT
The overview I am getting is of a 1997 style election result. A national swing from Con to Lab of 9% with the Lib Dems, Plaid and SNP operating a pincer movement on the Conservatives. In other words, if you are a Conservative MP with a majority of less than 18%, you are done for. However, until we get the notional calculations we have no idea if a 9% swing will be enough for Labour to govern outright.
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2023 7:15:02 GMT
unless that is you're a Conservative MP in Uxbridge & S Ruislip.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 24, 2023 7:23:58 GMT
Again, look at the table in the first post of this thread. Labour's vote went up in Selby. The Lib Dems vote went up in Somerton. Labour's vote went down in Uxbridge. You need to learn that when you blunder yourself into a hole, the best approach is to stop digging. do? Labour's vote went up in the Selby byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Somerton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Tiverton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Shropshire byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Chesham byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went up in the Hartlepool byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went down in the Uxbridge byelection and they didn't win the seat off the Tories. It must be the Lib Dem's fault. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 24, 2023 9:17:56 GMT
Labour vote went *down* on the previous GE come the 1994 Dudley West byelection. Clearly, this was a totally disastrous result for them.
(and yes, some Tories *did* use that stat at the time to soberly claim "all our voters stayed at home, they will come back at the next GE and we will still win it")
EDIT: I now see that DB made this point upthread - maybe worth repeating tho.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 24, 2023 9:23:03 GMT
On what basis is anyone blaming the Lib Dems for Labour failing to gain Uxbridge?
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2023 9:36:29 GMT
On what basis is anyone blaming the Lib Dems for Labour failing to gain Uxbridge? I blame South Ruislip |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 24, 2023 9:36:51 GMT
You need to learn that when you blunder yourself into a hole, the best approach is to stop digging. do? Labour's vote went up in the Selby byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Somerton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Tiverton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Shropshire byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Chesham byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went up in the Hartlepool byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went down in the Uxbridge byelection and they didn't win the seat off the Tories. It must be the Lib Dem's fault. It’s a good job I don’t enter the prediction competition, I could’ve sworn Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election which they were defending. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 24, 2023 10:19:21 GMT
I do? Labour's vote went up in the Selby byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Somerton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Tiverton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Shropshire byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Chesham byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went up in the Hartlepool byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went down in the Uxbridge byelection and they didn't win the seat off the Tories. It must be the Lib Dem's fault. It’s a good job I don’t enter the prediction competition, I could’ve sworn Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election which they were defending. and the labour vote didn't go down in Uxbridge by election |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 24, 2023 10:22:27 GMT
I do? Labour's vote went up in the Selby byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Somerton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Tiverton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Shropshire byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Chesham byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went up in the Hartlepool byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went down in the Uxbridge byelection and they didn't win the seat off the Tories. It must be the Lib Dem's fault. It’s a good job I don’t enter the prediction competition, I could’ve sworn Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election which they were defending. Whoops! The point still stands though. While turnout will probably drop in a by-election, if you win it off the incumbent, your vote will probably go up. Labour's vote did go up in Selby and they did win it off the Tories. Labour's vote did go down in Uxbridge and they didn't win it off the Tories. The loss is not because hundreds of people voted Lib Dem, it is because thousands of Labour voters stayed at home, in contrast to a list of recent by-elections where the winner's vote went up not down. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 24, 2023 10:26:22 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2023 10:38:00 GMT
On what basis is anyone blaming the Lib Dems for Labour failing to gain Uxbridge? 1. Labour lost in Uxbridge & South Ruislip by a margin of 495 votes. 2. The Lib Dem candidate got 526 votes. 3. If all those voters had voted Labour instead of Lib Dem, Labour would have won. (3b. similarly, the 893 Green voters, and 248 SDP voters, and so on) 4. All centre-left people are morally required to form a centre-left anti-Conservative electoral alliance or pact, in order to defeat Conservative candidates, and are therefore required to vote tactically in order to defeat the Conservative candidate. 5. Similarly, the Labour and Green voters in Somerton & Frome should have voted Lib Dem. Lefty logic says that policy differences between Labour, Lib Dem and Green don't matter and/or are negligible, and that defeating the Conservatives is the only thing that matters. The ultimate brain-boggling violation of this lefty logic was of course the formation of the Coalition in 2010. The very fact that there was a hung parliament meant that the Lib Dems (and Green, and SDLP, etc.) "should" have immediately pledged to support a minority Labour government in order to keep out the Evil Tories. |
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 24, 2023 10:44:57 GMT
A few thoughts:
Somerton & Frome - The size of the victory was large enough for the Lib Dems to mean that holding it a General Election seems more plausible (if the majority was small, it might have been a different matter). Plus with their previous history in the seat, it seems more likely that they'll hold this at a General Election than the other seats they gained in by-elections before this.
How many they hold at a General Election will depend, to some degree, whether they continue to squeeze the labour vote in this seat. In the 1997 election the Lib Dems lost a few potential pickup opportunities due to labour vote increases, they'll want to try and keep the labour vote squeezed in these seats, which is not a given in a General Election. By-elections are much easier when it comes to squeezing votes from other parties, the 'two horse race' has more impact in by-elections.
Selby & Ainsty - This shows that labour are very much on the way to government and are clear favourites at the moment to win the next general election, the swing to them they obtained is equivalent to those they got in the mid-90's. It was definitely the most disastrous conservative performance of the night (worse than Somerton & Frome).
Uxbridge & South Ruislip - With regards to ULEZ I know the policy is limited to older vehicles but I think people have in their minds that it may well get extended to all vehicles a few years after ULEZ is implemented for older vehicles and could potentially affect them sooner than they think and impose a huge cost on them.
The lesson that both parties may need to take away from this is that when implementing Net Zero environmental policies you really do have to think about the costs you impose on people when doing so. Pushing too hard, imposing too many costs on people, is likely to turn people against the environmental policies, even if they favour reducing emissions etc as a policy in general. The conservatives have to think about this now, and labour have to have some serious thinking about this when for when they are in government.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2023 10:46:18 GMT
You need to learn that when you blunder yourself into a hole, the best approach is to stop digging. do? Labour's vote went up in the Selby byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Somerton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Tiverton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Shropshire byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Chesham byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went up in the Hartlepool byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went down in the Uxbridge byelection and they didn't win the seat off the Tories. It must be the Lib Dem's fault. We (and experts, and psephologists, and journalists) mostly analyse election results in terms of percentages and swings - presumably because, in the long-run, it has turned out to be most useful and informative to do it that way, as a method of analysis and prediction. In an alternative universe, election results are routinely analysed in terms of raw numbers of votes, or as percentages of the electorate instead of percentages of the turnout. In that universe, people equally understand that most by-elections have votes going down for most parties, and it's just a matter of comparing which. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 24, 2023 11:06:03 GMT
I do? Labour's vote went up in the Selby byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Somerton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Tiverton byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Shropshire byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Lib Dem's vote went up in the Chesham byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went up in the Hartlepool byelection and they won the seat off the Tories Labour's vote went down in the Uxbridge byelection and they didn't win the seat off the Tories. It must be the Lib Dem's fault. We (and experts, and psephologists, and journalists) mostly analyse election results in terms of percentages and swings - presumably because, in the long-run, it has turned out to be most useful and informative to do it that way, as a method of analysis and prediction. In an alternative universe, election results are routinely analysed in terms of raw numbers of votes, or as percentages of the electorate instead of percentages of the turnout. In that universe, people equally understand that most by-elections have votes going down for most parties, and it's just a matter of comparing which. Do you? That is interesting. Is that the only valid analysis? I wonder whether that approach could be a bit limiting? Even narrow minded? Perhaps your're right. Perhaps there is nothing in the idea that a party's vote can go up in a by-election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2023 11:22:29 GMT
On what basis is anyone blaming the Lib Dems for Labour failing to gain Uxbridge? I blame South Ruislip I knew Labour would (Rui)slip up. |
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