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Post by greenhert on Oct 20, 2023 18:19:42 GMT
Like with by-elections in the mid-1990s, it is clear that Labour are on course to form the next government, especially given the sizes of the majorities they have to overcome to win these by-elections, but whether they will obtain a secure enough majority remains to be seen.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 19:49:29 GMT
Yesterday’s two by-elections:
Labour UP 655
Lib Dems: DOWN 770
Conservative: DOWN 46,151
Where did those 46,000 former Conservative voters from 2019 go to?
They didn’t vote Labour; they stayed at home.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 19:50:06 GMT
Lib Dem increases in votes, in 2019-2023:
Somerton & Frome: UP 4,170
Tiverton & Honiton: UP 13,730
Shropshire North: UP 12,314
Chesham & Amersham: UP 6,890
and in 1992-1997:
Newbury: UP 12,812
Christchurch: UP 19,552
Eastleigh: UP 3,177
Littleborough & Saddleworth DOWN 2,957
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 19:51:19 GMT
If the voters of Tamworth and Bedfordshire Mid had voted with the same % swings in both seats:
Tamworth:
Lab 10,117
Con 9,827
LD 2,671
Labour majority 290
Bedfordshire Mid:
Lab 15,286
Con 12,986
LD 7,248
Labour majority 2,300
but in real life, they voted more efficiently to ensure a clear majority (big enough to avoid a recount) for Labour in both
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 19:52:15 GMT
Of you add up the votes in Tamworth and Bedfordshire Mid, you get:
2019 General Election:
Con 69,234 Lab 24,936 LD 10,597 Others 6,006
2023 By-Elections:
Con 23,083 Lab 25,591 LD 9,837 Others 8,212
Conservative vote down by 2/3rds, but very little increase for Labour or LibDem
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 19:53:18 GMT
A couple of questions for the Blue Team, Red Team and Yellow Team... Blue Team: of the seats lost in this Parliament (a) which one are you most confident of winning back, and (b) which one would expect to be the hardest to regain? [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Wakefield*, Tiverton & Honiton, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Beds, Tamworth] Red Team: which of the seats you won at By-elections in this Parliament are you most confident of retaining (an easy one?) , and (b) which will be the hardest to retain? [Choose from; Wakefield*, Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds, Tamworth] * I was tempted to exclude Wakefield from these lists because statistically they should be far easier for Labour to retain/ harder for Tories to regain than any of the others, but left it as I dont want to pre-judge. Bonus points to anyone who dosent answer Wakefield though, with a cogent explanation 
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome] |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 19:54:11 GMT
Labour shouldn’t get too excited about its prospects for the next general election, just because it has gained a few by-elections.
How much did the Labour vote change?
Beds Mid: DOWN 156
Tamworth: UP 811
Rutherglen: DOWN 700
Selby: UP 2,628
Wakefield: DOWN 4,759
In the 1992-1997 Parliament, the Labour vote went up by much more than it did in the 2019-2024 Parliament in the seats which they gained in by-elections:
Wirral South: UP 5,360
Staffordshire SE: UP 4,167
Dudley West: DOWN 540
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 19:56:10 GMT
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome Easiest - probably Somerton. Most difficult North Shropshire. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 19:56:13 GMT
A couple of questions for the Blue Team, Red Team and Yellow Team... Blue Team: of the seats lost in this Parliament (a) which one are you most confident of winning back, and (b) which one would expect to be the hardest to regain? [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Wakefield*, Tiverton & Honiton, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Beds, Tamworth] Red Team: which of the seats you won at By-elections in this Parliament are you most confident of retaining (an easy one?) , and (b) which will be the hardest to retain? [Choose from; Wakefield*, Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds, Tamworth] * I was tempted to exclude Wakefield from these lists because statistically they should be far easier for Labour to retain/ harder for Tories to regain than any of the others, but left it as I dont want to pre-judge. Bonus points to anyone who dosent answer Wakefield though, with a cogent explanation
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome] Beds Mid, Tiverton & Honiton |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 20:12:58 GMT
A couple of questions for the Blue Team, Red Team and Yellow Team... Blue Team: of the seats lost in this Parliament (a) which one are you most confident of winning back, and (b) which one would expect to be the hardest to regain? [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Wakefield*, Tiverton & Honiton, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Beds, Tamworth] Red Team: which of the seats you won at By-elections in this Parliament are you most confident of retaining (an easy one?) , and (b) which will be the hardest to retain? [Choose from; Wakefield*, Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds, Tamworth] * I was tempted to exclude Wakefield from these lists because statistically they should be far easier for Labour to retain/ harder for Tories to regain than any of the others, but left it as I dont want to pre-judge. Bonus points to anyone who dosent answer Wakefield though, with a cogent explanation
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome] Not on any team, but personally at the moment, if I had to bet The Con regain order likelihood: ( boundary changes - assuming that Honiton and Sidmouth and Glastonbury and Somerton are the successor seats) Mid Beds, Selby and Ainsty, Tamworth, Shropshire N, Tiverton and Honiton, Chesham and Amersham, Somerton and Frome, Wakefield Lab chances of holding in order: Wakefield ( almost certain), Tamworth, Selby and Ainsty ( unlikely), Mid Beds ( very unlikely) LD chances of holding in order: Somerton and Frome ( likely ), Chesham and Amersham ( possible), Tiverton and Honiton and Shropshire N ( unlikely) |
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Post by stodge on Oct 20, 2023 20:20:04 GMT
Yesterday’s two by-elections: Labour UP 655 Lib Dems: DOWN 770 Conservative: DOWN 46,151 Where did those 46,000 former Conservative voters from 2019 go to? They didn’t vote Labour; they stayed at home. You and I both know it doesn't work like that, Indeed, in low turnout elections, it's usually the Conservatives who have the most organised and efficient vote. If we're going to throw the tired old 1997 meme of "people didn't really vote for New Labour, It was the Tories who stayed at home" - and presumably remained at home until 2010, it's going to be a long decade. Lessons from last night's contests? Three immediate - first, the Labour by-election machine, after years of sub-optimal performance, is getting its act together and is now a formidable adversary particularly for the LDs but also for the Conservatives. This augurs well for the GE campaign - Labour clearly has an improved "ground game" and it'll be interesting to see how the Conservatives, presumably weakened, can and will respond. Second point - this will re-enforce for the LDs the need to concentrate resources only on those seats where they start a clear second so I think there'll only be 30-50 seats where you'll see serious LD campaigning but the concentration of targeted resources can achieve results even if the national vote share isn't much different from 2019. Third point - the polls aren't wrong. Those showing a consistent 17-20 point lead for Labour seem close to the truth - last night's changes in vote share suggested for me Labour in the mid to high 40s and the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s and that's where most polls are clustering. David Cameron enjoyed 15-20 point leads over Gordon Brown's Labour in the spring and early summer of 2009 and won Norwich North on a 16.5% swing in July. We all know how that turned out but the point is the Labour vote was 27% in May 2009 and 29% in May 2010 - the fall was in the Conservative vote from the mid 40s to the mid 30s. Will we see any further growth in LD, Green and Reform vote shares at the expense of Labour? It seems improbable to this observer and whether abstaining or voting for a minor party or moving directly to Labour, the 2019 Conservative vote is being splintered and reduced to little more than half of what it was. That's a recipe for electoral annihilation. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 20:28:05 GMT
Yesterday’s two by-elections: Labour UP 655 Lib Dems: DOWN 770 Conservative: DOWN 46,151 Where did those 46,000 former Conservative voters from 2019 go to? They didn’t vote Labour; they stayed at home. No. Quite a lot did vote Labour in both constituencies. Surely you don't honestly believe that zero Tory voters switched to Labour, or in Mid Beds Labour & the Lib Dems? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 20:30:15 GMT
A couple of questions for the Blue Team, Red Team and Yellow Team... Blue Team: of the seats lost in this Parliament (a) which one are you most confident of winning back, and (b) which one would expect to be the hardest to regain? [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Wakefield*, Tiverton & Honiton, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Beds, Tamworth] Red Team: which of the seats you won at By-elections in this Parliament are you most confident of retaining (an easy one?) , and (b) which will be the hardest to retain? [Choose from; Wakefield*, Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds, Tamworth] * I was tempted to exclude Wakefield from these lists because statistically they should be far easier for Labour to retain/ harder for Tories to regain than any of the others, but left it as I dont want to pre-judge. Bonus points to anyone who dosent answer Wakefield though, with a cogent explanation
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome] hardest to retain is Mid Beds, but if Strathearn does stand there as opposed to Hitchin, it's not impossible. The boundary changes make Labour very likely to hold on to Selby & Ainsty, plus the large majority obtained at that by-election. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 20:55:27 GMT
Yesterday’s two by-elections: Labour UP 655 Lib Dems: DOWN 770 Conservative: DOWN 46,151 Where did those 46,000 former Conservative voters from 2019 go to? They didn’t vote Labour; they stayed at home. No. Quite a lot did vote Labour in both constituencies. Surely you don't honestly believe that zero Tory voters switched to Labour, or in Mid Beds Labour & the Lib Dems? Of course I don’t believe any such thing, you unbelievably nincompoopismatic lump of concrete |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Oct 20, 2023 21:19:30 GMT
A couple of questions for the Blue Team, Red Team and Yellow Team... Blue Team: of the seats lost in this Parliament (a) which one are you most confident of winning back, and (b) which one would expect to be the hardest to regain? [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Wakefield*, Tiverton & Honiton, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Beds, Tamworth] Red Team: which of the seats you won at By-elections in this Parliament are you most confident of retaining (an easy one?) , and (b) which will be the hardest to retain? [Choose from; Wakefield*, Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds, Tamworth] * I was tempted to exclude Wakefield from these lists because statistically they should be far easier for Labour to retain/ harder for Tories to regain than any of the others, but left it as I dont want to pre-judge. Bonus points to anyone who dosent answer Wakefield though, with a cogent explanation
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome] I will answer for both red and yellow. Red: easiest is clearly whichever you count as the successor to Wakefield, though Ossett & Denby Dale (which takes slightly more electorate from the existing Wakefield, so will be regarded as the successor by some) is clearly harder than Wakefield & Rothwell. Then Selby, then Tamworth, with Mid Beds the hardest. Yellow: easiest is Glastonbury & Somerton, and I think the boundary changes make Honiton & Sidmouth the hardest assuming that is counted as the successor seat. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 20, 2023 21:31:41 GMT
Like with by-elections in the mid-1990s, it is clear that Labour are on course to form the next government, especially given the sizes of the majorities they have to overcome to win these by-elections, but whether they will obtain a secure enough majority remains to be seen. if they didn't it would be seen as the biggest snatched from the mouth of victory ever |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 21:45:14 GMT
No. Quite a lot did vote Labour in both constituencies. Surely you don't honestly believe that zero Tory voters switched to Labour, or in Mid Beds Labour & the Lib Dems? Of course I don’t believe any such thing, you unbelievably nincompoopismatic lump of concrete just piss off until you learn some manners. You are a very unendearing individual. Play nice or don't play at all |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 22:02:02 GMT
can only hope that batman isnt a lump of RAAS concrete |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Oct 20, 2023 22:18:21 GMT
A couple of questions for the Blue Team, Red Team and Yellow Team... Blue Team: of the seats lost in this Parliament (a) which one are you most confident of winning back, and (b) which one would expect to be the hardest to regain? [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Wakefield*, Tiverton & Honiton, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Beds, Tamworth] Red Team: which of the seats you won at By-elections in this Parliament are you most confident of retaining (an easy one?) , and (b) which will be the hardest to retain? [Choose from; Wakefield*, Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds, Tamworth] * I was tempted to exclude Wakefield from these lists because statistically they should be far easier for Labour to retain/ harder for Tories to regain than any of the others, but left it as I dont want to pre-judge. Bonus points to anyone who dosent answer Wakefield though, with a cogent explanation
Yellow Team: same questions as for the Red Team.. [Choose from: Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N, Tiverton & Honiton, Somerton & Frome] I wouldn't describe myself as firmly in a team although closest to yellow. However my thoughts would be... Labour, easiest to hardest: 1. Wakefield successor seats (both Wakefield and Rothwell and Ossett and Denby Dale) 2. Rutherglen 3. Selby 4. Mid Beds 5. Tamworth Lib Dem, easiest to hardest: 1. Honiton and Sidmouth 2. Glastonbury and Somerton (also Frome and East Somerset is probably here) 3. North Shropshire 4. Chesham and Amersham (5. If you count it, Tiverton and Minehead) I would expect Labour to lose Tamworth and Mid Beds, and the Lib Dems to lose Chesham and Amersham and Tiverton and Minehead, but the rest remain with the by election victors. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2023 11:48:53 GMT
Not saying it will happen next time round, but when was the last occasion (if ever) that a governing party failed to regain any of its byelection losses at a GE?
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