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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 21, 2023 12:13:22 GMT
Not saying it will happen next time round, but when was the last occasion (if ever) that a governing party failed to regain any of its byelection losses at a GE? I don't think its happened. 1964 was the closest as only Dorset South was regained while by-election losses were confirmed in Orpington, Middlesbrough West, Glasgow Woodside, Luton and Rutherglen (also Bristol SE but that doesn't really count) 1951-55 is interesting as only one seat changed hand at a by-election in that parliament (Sunderland South and it was a Conservative gain from Labour) and that was confirmed a the following general election. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 21, 2023 12:14:08 GMT
Of course 1997 was close as well, Dorset again providing the one exception
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 12:18:21 GMT
Not saying it will happen next time round, but when was the last occasion (if ever) that a governing party failed to regain any of its byelection losses at a GE? If it’s like 1997 and the Tories only win one seat back - I’d expect it to be Tamworth. I think they’ll get a few more back most likely. Chesham & Amersham might stay LD. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 21, 2023 12:20:47 GMT
Not saying it will happen next time round, but when was the last occasion (if ever) that a governing party failed to regain any of its byelection losses at a GE? I don't think its happened. 1964 was the closest as only Dorset South was regained while by-election losses were confirmed in Orpington, Middlesbrough West, Glasgow Woodside, Luton and Rutherglen (also Bristol SE but that doesn't really count) 1951-55 is interesting as only one seat changed hand at a by-election in that parliament (Sunderland South and it was a Conservative gain from Labour) and that was confirmed a the following general election. The Sunderland South by election winner, Paul Williams, was a supporter of Rhodesia and South Africa, but had also been on of the eight Tory Suez rebels in 1957. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 21, 2023 13:03:47 GMT
I don't think its happened. 1964 was the closest as only Dorset South was regained while by-election losses were confirmed in Orpington, Middlesbrough West, Glasgow Woodside, Luton and Rutherglen (also Bristol SE but that doesn't really count) 1951-55 is interesting as only one seat changed hand at a by-election in that parliament (Sunderland South and it was a Conservative gain from Labour) and that was confirmed a the following general election. The Sunderland South by election winner, Paul Williams, was a supporter of Rhodesia and South Africa, but had also been on of the eight Tory Suez rebels in 1957. Yes. He was both an Arabist and Empire supremacist. You don't find many these days! |
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Post by stodge on Oct 21, 2023 13:08:05 GMT
Not saying it will happen next time round, but when was the last occasion (if ever) that a governing party failed to regain any of its byelection losses at a GE? If it’s like 1997 and the Tories only win one seat back - I’d expect it to be Tamworth. I think they’ll get a few more back most likely. Chesham & Amersham might stay LD. It's hard to see Labour holding on to the 54th safest Conservative seat but both parties will have to put effort into a seat I presume neither would in ordinary circumstances. Back to 1997 and in 1992 CHristchurch was won by Robert Adley with a 40% lead over the LDs - the 20% swing required was easily accomplished by Diana Maddock who achieved a 35.4% swing. In 1997 she lost by 2,165 despite a swing of 18% from 1992. In 2019, Christchurch returned its Conservative MP with a 24,617 majority and the LDs require a 24% swing so it's even safer now than it was in 1992 - that's the thing with by elections in very safe seats, they are often ephemeral and within a decade it's as though they never happened - not always of course. Christchurch is now the 23rd safest Conservative seat. |
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Post by batman on Oct 21, 2023 17:32:22 GMT
Christchurch returned to complete safety for the Conservatives in 2001. It has been pretty consistently, other than in 1997, the Tories' safest seat in the SW Region, to which it has belonged since Christchurch was moved from Hampshire to Dorset in 1973.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 21, 2023 17:38:25 GMT
Let us be honest, until the publication of the Media Guide we are just plucking numbers out of the air that suit our arguments. Let's just wait, after all it is clear that everyone else is waiting.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 21, 2023 18:20:26 GMT
Christchurch returned to complete safety for the Conservatives in 2001. It has been pretty consistently, other than in 1997, the Tories' safest seat in the SW Region, to which it has belonged since Christchurch was moved from Hampshire to Dorset in 1973. Its predecessor, Christchurch & Lymington (the first time the town of Christchurch became the dominant part of a constituency), was just as safe and in 1979 was one of 4 Conservative seats where the MP gained the votes of more than half of all registered electors in the seat (not merely those who actually voted), the others being Rushcliffe, Solihull, and Sutton Coldfield. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 24, 2023 23:03:55 GMT
If it’s like 1997 and the Tories only win one seat back - I’d expect it to be Tamworth. I think they’ll get a few more back most likely. Chesham & Amersham might stay LD. It's hard to see Labour holding on to the 54th safest Conservative seat but both parties will have to put effort into a seat I presume neither would in ordinary circumstances. Back to 1997 and in 1992 CHristchurch was won by Robert Adley with a 40% lead over the LDs - the 20% swing required was easily accomplished by Diana Maddock who achieved a 35.4% swing. In 1997 she lost by 2,165 despite a swing of 18% from 1992. In 2019, Christchurch returned its Conservative MP with a 24,617 majority and the LDs require a 24% swing so it's even safer now than it was in 1992 - that's the thing with by elections in very safe seats, they are often ephemeral and within a decade it's as though they never happened - not always of course. Christchurch is now the 23rd safest Conservative seat. On the other hand Tamworth was Labour - held 1997 - 2010 - so the party has history there in a way that is not true of MidBeds. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 26, 2023 19:12:03 GMT
It's hard to see Labour holding on to the 54th safest Conservative seat but both parties will have to put effort into a seat I presume neither would in ordinary circumstances. Back to 1997 and in 1992 CHristchurch was won by Robert Adley with a 40% lead over the LDs - the 20% swing required was easily accomplished by Diana Maddock who achieved a 35.4% swing. In 1997 she lost by 2,165 despite a swing of 18% from 1992. In 2019, Christchurch returned its Conservative MP with a 24,617 majority and the LDs require a 24% swing so it's even safer now than it was in 1992 - that's the thing with by elections in very safe seats, they are often ephemeral and within a decade it's as though they never happened - not always of course. Christchurch is now the 23rd safest Conservative seat. On the other hand Tamworth was Labour - held 1997 - 2010 - so the party has history there in a way that is not true of MidBeds. Have there been demographic changes in Tamworth since 2010? |
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Post by batman on Oct 26, 2023 20:09:08 GMT
Depends what you mean. I don't think the nature of the population has changed much in terms of education, employment, ethnicity or other metrics. It's more of a political change, whereby white working-class voters in many parts of England, especially those which are not located in major cities though not exclusively, have in recent elections been much less likely to vote Labour.
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 27, 2023 7:38:41 GMT
On the other hand Tamworth was Labour - held 1997 - 2010 - so the party has history there in a way that is not true of MidBeds. Have there been demographic changes in Tamworth since 2010? Since I did the almanac profile I have some figures to hand from 2011 and 2021 censuses - no significant changes in tenure. Like everywhere else private renting has increased from 11% to 14% at the expense of both owner-occupation and social housing. - no significant changes in ethnicity. White down from 97% to 95%, but this is true everywhere. - Managerial jobs up from 31% to 34%, but again this just mirrors the national trend. - Educational qualifications do show the significant change everywhere. Up from 20% to 25% with degrees, but that is a smaller rise than average, and Tamworth has dropped into the bottom 80 constituencies. - However on age there has been a big shift. Those over 65 have gone from 16% (below average) to 20% (above average). Basically it is political change, not demographic, although the ageing population will have some effect. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 7:42:35 GMT
I'm not sure we can compare the Recall of MPs Act era to the 1990s. These by-elections aren't like those. Tamworth 2023 =/= South East Staffs 1996.
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iang
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Post by iang on Oct 27, 2023 8:17:24 GMT
I think for both C&A and North Shropshire, one key will be the local elections next May. We have virtually no councillors in either seat, so being able to establish a good councillor base will both be a pointer to, and a help with, holding the seats. Equally, being unable to do so will look ominous
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 27, 2023 8:37:25 GMT
I think for both C&A and North Shropshire, one key will be the local elections next May. We have virtually no councillors in either seat, so being able to establish a good councillor base will both be a pointer to, and a help with, holding the seats. Equally, being unable to do so will look ominous Those councils aren't up until 2025 |
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Post by swingometer on May 8, 2024 23:12:43 GMT
For what it’s worth, which may actually be a fair bit, the 24% swing to Labour was more than Mid Staffordshire in 1990 of 21%, and less than Dudley West in 1994 of 29%. Overall I think Labour are on course to win the next general election, but it’s not going to be the massive landslide being forecast by many at the moment. The gap is going to narrow. Uxbridge & South Ruislip shows us that local factors, incumbency, campaigning quality and demographics are going to play a much stronger part than it did in 1997, when virtually all Conservative MPs vulnerable to 10% swings were swept away indiscriminately on the national tide. Very good analysis. Clearly the Tories got the campaigning right here - Steve Tuckwell seems a strong fit for the constituency too. Although the Tories have held Uxbridge (+ predecessor seats) for decades, it's hardly been rock solid for them. Even in 2019, Johnson's winning margin was not huge (still well short of a 5 digit majority). Even with the cloud of ULEZ, Labour should have done a lot better (if national opinion polls are to be believed). I know nearly a year later, inflations well down and err… that’s it, but still I wouldn’t have said that the polls would narrow to a significant extent. |
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Post by swingometer on May 8, 2024 23:19:53 GMT
They yiewsuley do in this constituency Winning was an (Ux)bridge too far for Labour. Labour couldn’t march up Hill(ingdon) |
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Post by batman on May 9, 2024 7:05:09 GMT
Labour went awry slipping up here.
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on May 9, 2024 8:50:17 GMT
Not saying it will happen next time round, but when was the last occasion (if ever) that a governing party failed to regain any of its byelection losses at a GE? If it’s like 1997 and the Tories only win one seat back - I’d expect it to be Tamworth. I think they’ll get a few more back most likely. Chesham & Amersham might stay LD. I think Labour will hold Tamworth tbh. North Shropshire is more likely to go back though the boundary changes move a strong Tory area out of the seat. |
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