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Post by batman on Oct 14, 2023 17:31:05 GMT
I'm quite sure we haven't taken our collective eyes off the ball. We are never going to get over-confident about a seat which requires a swing in excess of 20% to take it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2023 17:31:57 GMT
Channeling the mid-90s vibes for Labour:
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 15, 2023 10:34:55 GMT
For what it's worth* the Tories reckon they'll be able to hold both seats:
*Possibly not that much, given that they're not short of unwonted confidence, nor blessed with a stellar campaigning operation, but I don't think they were saying this about Selby at the same point.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2023 11:15:48 GMT
Well, depends who the Tories saying this actually are as well. All I really know about Tamworth is that Labour people on the ground there seem quietly confident.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 15, 2023 11:26:59 GMT
For what it's worth* the Tories reckon they'll be able to hold both seats: *Possibly not that much, given that they're not short of unwonted confidence, nor blessed with a stellar campaigning operation, but I don't think they were saying this about Selby at the same point. that 'either' is ... brave. |
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 15, 2023 13:37:27 GMT
Well, depends who the Tories saying this actually are as well. All I really know about Tamworth is that Labour people on the ground there seem quietly confident. The Labour vote is very much out in Tamworth, motivated, I think some forget that in a by-election a turnout differential gets you most of the way there to a gain. That 19,000 majority is also very soft, occurred under very specific circumstances, and a bit of an illusion IMO. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 3:46:11 GMT
It's weird to think this seat is technically a bellwether constituency since it was Labour until 2010.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 16, 2023 9:21:05 GMT
Well, depends who the Tories saying this actually are as well. All I really know about Tamworth is that Labour people on the ground there seem quietly confident. The Labour vote is very much out in Tamworth, motivated, I think some forget that in a by-election a turnout differential gets you most of the way there to a gain. That 19,000 majority is also very soft, occurred under very specific circumstances, and a bit of an illusion IMO.A point I made not long after this byelection became a live possibility. In quite a lot of the country, the 2017 results are a more reliable indicator as to the realistic lie of the land. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 16, 2023 10:04:59 GMT
Conservative candidate fails to win a judgment under s. 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 requiring Labour to stop distributing a social media attack on him for being in line for a payout should he stand down in favour of Eddie Hughes at the next election. www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/KB/2023/2555.pdf |
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Max
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Post by Max on Oct 16, 2023 11:32:14 GMT
Conservative candidate fails to win a judgment under s. 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 requiring Labour to stop distributing a social media attack on him for being in line for a payout should he stand down in favour of Eddie Hughes at the next election. www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/KB/2023/2555.pdfI'm not in the habit of reading court judgements, but I'm immediately amused at what I presume is a typo in the official description of Evans and Taylor as the defendants each on behalf of "the Labour Marty"! |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 16, 2023 11:45:47 GMT
It's weird to think this seat is technically a bellwether constituency since it was Labour until 2010. There are a fair few seats like that; Amber Valley, Cannock, Wellingborough, Kettering, Sittingbourne, etc. all had Labour MPs for 13 years and now have 20k Tory majorities |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2023 12:14:15 GMT
It's weird to think this seat is technically a bellwether constituency since it was Labour until 2010. There are a fair few seats like that; Amber Valley, Cannock, Wellingborough, Kettering, Sittingbourne, etc. all had Labour MPs for 13 years and now have 20k Tory majorities Kettering and Wellingborough were gained in 2005. Cannock was won by Labour in 1992. Sittingbourne & Sheppey was notionally Conservative in 2005 and as Faversham had been Conservative between 1970 and 1997. Only Amber Valley on your list could be regarded as technically a bellwether, having been won by the winning party at each general election since it was created |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 12:20:18 GMT
It's weird to think this seat is technically a bellwether constituency since it was Labour until 2010. There are a fair few seats like that; Amber Valley, Cannock, Wellingborough, Kettering, Sittingbourne, etc. all had Labour MPs for 13 years and now have 20k Tory majorities Dartford and NW Leicestershire too. In London, Harrow East is probably the closest thing to a bellwether seat, but Tory in 1964 and the 1974 elections. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 16, 2023 14:59:27 GMT
There are a fair few seats like that; Amber Valley, Cannock, Wellingborough, Kettering, Sittingbourne, etc. all had Labour MPs for 13 years and now have 20k Tory majorities Kettering and Wellingborough were gained in 2005. Cannock was won by Labour in 1992. Sittingbourne & Sheppey was notionally Conservative in 2005 and as Faversham had been Conservative between 1970 and 1997. Only Amber Valley on your list could be regarded as technically a bellwether, having been won by the winning party at each general election since it was created Redditch? |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Oct 17, 2023 13:25:42 GMT
Kettering and Wellingborough were gained in 2005. Cannock was won by Labour in 1992. Sittingbourne & Sheppey was notionally Conservative in 2005 and as Faversham had been Conservative between 1970 and 1997. Only Amber Valley on your list could be regarded as technically a bellwether, having been won by the winning party at each general election since it was created Redditch? Worcester as well on the post 1997 boundaries |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 17, 2023 14:24:27 GMT
Conservative candidate's sympathy for parents who can't afford to feed their children  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2023 14:35:13 GMT
Worcester as well on the post 1997 boundaries Given the swing needed nationally, I believe the 2024 bellwether on current boundaries is err ... Croydon South (Labour target #122) |
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 15:55:57 GMT
that's not the definition of a bellwether. Though I understand what you're getting at.
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 17, 2023 16:01:24 GMT
Twenty years ago I would have thought there was more chance of me becoming Pope than Croydon South going Labour - after all this is Purley, Kenley, Coulsdon, rather than Thornton Heath or Waddon!
Demographics have changed that so rapidly, with large family houses being knocked down left, right and centre and replaced by flats for young commuters.
I could quite easily see Croydon South going Labour next time...
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Post by johnloony on Oct 17, 2023 17:08:43 GMT
Twenty years ago I would have thought there was more chance of me becoming Pope than Croydon South going Labour - after all this is Purley, Kenley, Coulsdon, rather than Thornton Heath or Waddon! Demographics have changed that so rapidly, with large family houses being knocked down left, right and centre and replaced by flats for young commuters. I could quite easily see Croydon South going Labour next time... I understand the logic of what you’re saying, but it is still true that (on the new boundaries) no part of Croydon South has ever elected a Labour councillor. It may be on the list of constituencies which Labour needs to win in order to get a majority (assuming a uniform national swing) but in reality it would only fall if there were a Labour landslide. For a variety of reasons, I am expecting Croydon South to have a smaller swing than the national average, and I am not expecting a Labour landslide anyway. |
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