Somerton and Frome - 20th July 2023

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Somerton and Frome by election. 20th July 2023

The 8 candidates as a reminder are:
Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA)
Martin John DIMERY (Green)
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats)
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK)
Neil William GUILD (Labour)
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent)
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative)
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 6 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 20th July 2023.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.

Have Fun.
DHAA

[sonofkrautrock]

Lib Dem 56.6%
Con 31.6%
Reform 4.7%
Green 3.6%
Lab 1.9%
UKIP 0.9%
CPA 0.4%
Ind 0.3%

[peterl]

Lib Dem 54.5%
Con 25.8%
Lab 7.9%
Green 5.5%
Reform 4.2%
UKIP 1.1%
CPA 0.6%
Ind 0.4%

[November_Rain]

Why not!

LD 51.7%
Con 29.5%
Lab 6.9%
Green 5.5%
Reform 4.4%
CPA 0.85%
UKIP 0.77%
Ind 0.38%

[greenhert]

My prediction:

Liberal Democrats 48%
Conservative 32%
Green 10%
Labour 6%
Reform UK 2%
Independent (Mitchell) 1%
CPA 0.5%
UKIP 0.5%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 26, 2023 17:29:14 GMT November_Rain said:

Why not!

LD 51.7%
Con 29.5%
Lab 6.9%
Green 5.5%
Reform 4.4%
CPA 0.85%
UKIP 0.77%
Ind 0.38%

November_Rain the competition asks for predictions to 1 decimal place, with rounding this prediction adds up to 100.1%, you may wish to adjust it.

[johnloony]

LD 58.6
Con 28.4
Lab 6.2
Green 3.5
RefUK 1.7
CPA 0.7
Ind 0.5
UKIP 0.4

[bigfatron]

Lib Dem 46.8%
Con 35.2%
Lab 6.6%
Green 5.1%
RefUK 4.5%
UKIP 0.7%
CPA 0.6%
Ind 0.5%

[kevinf]

LibDem 51
Con 29
Lab 8
Green 7
Reform 3
Ukip 1.3
CPA 0.4
Ind 0.3

[Deleted]

Dyke (LD) 49%
Purbrick (CON) 29%
Guild (LAB) 9%
Dimery (GRN) 6%
Evans (REF) 5%
Mitchell (IND) 1%
Richardson (UKIP) 0.5%
Coake (CPA) 0.5%

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 14, 2023 13:41:40 GMT @weld said:

Dyke (LD) 49%
Purbrick (CON) 29%
Guild (LAB) 9%
Dimery (GRN) 6%
Evans (REF) 5%
Mitchell (IND) 1%
Richardson (UKIP) 0.5%
Coake (CPA) 0.5%

Hat tip to Patrick Flynn..

[woollyliberal]

Lib Dem 58%
Con 27%
Lab 5%
Green 4%
Reform 3%
UKIP 1%
CPA 1%
Ind 1%

[YL]

Lib Dem 50.6
Con 32.9
Green 6.7
Reform UK 4.3
Lab 3.0
Mitchell 1.5
CPA 0.6
UKIP 0.4

[swindonlad]

My guess

Lib Dem 42.0
Con 37.5
Green 7.5
Lab 5.5
Reform 4.5
Mitchell 1.0
CPA 0.5
UKIP 1.5

[sirbenjamin]

LD 49.90
Con 31.60
Lab 7.60
Green 5.20
Reform 3.30
UKIP 1.10
Ind 0.70
CPA 0.60

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

LD 41.6
Con 31.6
Lab 12.2
Reform 6.0
Green 5.6
Ind 1.8
UKIP 1.0
CPA 0.2

[batman]

Lib Dem 48.9
C 31.4
Green 7.2
Lab 4.7
RefUK 4.1
Ind 2.1
UKIP 1.2
CPA 0.4

[mattb]

Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA) 1
Martin John DIMERY (Green) 9
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats) 47
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK) 1
Neil William GUILD (Labour) 5
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent) 1
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative) 35
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP) 1

[borisminor]

CPA Lorna Coake 1.8%
Green Martin Dimery 2.3%
LD Sarah Dyke 48.5%
Reform Bruce Evans 4.4%
Labour Neil Guild 6.6%
Ind Rosie Mitchell 2.0%
Con Faye Purbrick 33.5%
UKIP Richardson 0.9%

[Roger Harmer]

Lib Dem 60.6%
Con 28.0%
Green 4.8%
Lab 2.8%
Reform 2.7%
UKIP 0.4%
CPA 0.4%
Ind 0.3%