Somerton and Frome - 20th July 2023

[johnloony]

Jul 20, 2023 21:08:58 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Prediction Ranges

Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 1.80% by borisminor a range of 1.60%

Martin John DIMERY (Green) 2.30% by borisminor to 10% by greenhert a range of 6.50%
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats) 41.60% by doktorb to 60.60% by Roger Hamer a range of 17.00%
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK) 1.00% by mattb to 6.00% by doktorb a range of 4.30%
Neil William GUILD (Labour) 1.90% by sonofkrautrock to 12.20% by doktorb a range of 10.30%
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent) 0.10% by LDCaerdydd to 2.10% by doktorb a range of 1.90%
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative) 25.80% by PeterL to 40.00% by DHAA a range of 14.20%

Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP) 0.20% by LDCaerdydd to 1.50% by swindonlad a range of 0.90%

Winning margin prediction range

22 out of 22 predict a Liberal Democrat win over Conservatives ranging from 4.50% by swindonlad to 32.60% by Roger Hamer a range of 28.10%

(Errors possible in above)

a few errors in the range

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Prediction Ranges
Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 1.80% by borisminor a range of 1.60%
Martin John DIMERY (Green) 2.30% by borisminor to 10% by greenhert a range of 7.70%
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats) 41.60% by doktorb to 60.60% by Roger Hamer a range of 19.00%
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK) 1.00% by mattb to 6.00% by doktorb a range of 5.00%
Neil William GUILD (Labour) 1.90% by sonofkrautrock to 12.20% by doktorb a range of 10.30%
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent) 0.10% by LDCaerdydd to 2.10% by doktorb a range of 2.00%
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative) 25.80% by PeterL to 40.00% by DHAA a range of 14.20%
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP) 0.20% by LDCaerdydd to 1.50% by swindonlad a range of 1.30%

Winning margin prediction range
22 out of 22 predict a Liberal Democrat win over Conservatives ranging from 4.50% by swindonlad to 32.60% by Roger Hamer a range of 28.10%

(Errors possible in above) - some corrections made.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Congratualtions to the Somerton and Frome By-Election Prediction Competition winner peterl

Second place goes to woollyliberal and the podium is completed by YL and Roger Harmer in joint 3rd.

Positions after Penalties

PeterL 12.6
woollyliberal 14.4
YL 16
Roger Hamer 16
Sg1 16.6
nn2019 17.6
johnloony 17.6
kevinf 17.6
haribo 17.8
batman 18
sonofkrautock 18.1
greenhert 18.4
weld 21.6
sirbenjamin 21.6
manchesterman 22.6
mattb 23.6
LDCaerdydd 27
borisminor 28
bigfatron 28.2
swindonlad 32.2
DHAA 32.6
doktorb 35.8

Positions before Penalties

PeterL 12.6
woollyliberal 14.4
YL 16
Roger Hamer 16
Sg1 16.6
nn2019 17.5
johnloony 17.6
kevinf 17.6
haribo 17.8
batman 18
sonofkrautock 18.1
greenhert 18.4
weld 21.6
sirbenjamin 21.6
manchesterman 22.6
mattb 23.6
LDCaerdydd 27
borisminor 28
bigfatron 28.2
swindonlad 32.2
DHAA 32.6
doktorb 35.8

Thanks to all who took part

DHAA

[michaelarden]

Jul 20, 2023 11:36:28 GMT mattbewilson said:

Jul 20, 2023 11:30:23 GMT borisminor said:

Didn't they only pick 'safe' councils and avoid any nasty ones with inconveniences such as strong opposition and third parties.

That's 3/16 wrong so nothing like 96% accuracy. It's just another teenager in his bedroom wishfully thinking Labour and Lib Dems are going to sweep the country.

[mattbewilson]

Jul 21, 2023 8:36:33 GMT michaelarden said:

Jul 20, 2023 11:36:28 GMT mattbewilson said:

That's 3/16 wrong so nothing like 96% accuracy. It's just another teenager in his bedroom wishfully thinking Labour and Lib Dems are going to sweep the country.

[The Bishop]

Yes, but *which* seats?

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 21, 2023 11:19:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, but *which* seats?

pedant 

[borisminor]

Jul 21, 2023 8:43:52 GMT mattbewilson said:

Jul 21, 2023 8:36:33 GMT michaelarden said:

That's 3/16 wrong so nothing like 96% accuracy. It's just another teenager in his bedroom wishfully thinking Labour and Lib Dems are going to sweep the country.

As 8,063 were up for election this isn't as impressive as believed.

[manchesterman]

So the number of seats correctly predicted, in percentage terms, was actually 39.59%