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Post by manchesterman on Jul 18, 2023 23:50:21 GMT
Lib Dem 49.9%
Con 31.1%
Lab 6.7%
Green 5.4%
Reform 5.3%
UKIP 1.0%
CPA 0.3%
Ind Mitchell 0.3%
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 19, 2023 7:37:19 GMT
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2023 7:49:58 GMT
I will be astonished if it's anything like as close as that, frankly.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 19, 2023 8:14:34 GMT
They've not predicted all candidates so are not accepted into our competition.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2023 10:23:37 GMT
I will be astonished if it's anything like as close as that, frankly. Are these the same ones who got the local elections completely wrong? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 11:23:41 GMT
Use words like 'regression model' and people will believe anything. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 19, 2023 18:04:45 GMT
Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA) 0.3
Martin John DIMERY (Green) 3.4
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats) 47
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK) 3.3
Neil William GUILD (Labour) 5
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent) 0.2
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative) 40
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP) 0.8
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 20, 2023 9:15:56 GMT
Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA) 0.2
Martin John DIMERY (Green) 5
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats) 49
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK) 3
Neil William GUILD (Labour) 5.5
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent) 0.1
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative) 37
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP) 0.2
100
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 20, 2023 11:26:29 GMT
I will be astonished if it's anything like as close as that, frankly. Are these the same ones who got the local elections completely wrong? according to them they 90% right |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 20, 2023 11:29:28 GMT
I will be astonished if it's anything like as close as that, frankly. Are these the same ones who got the local elections completely wrong? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 20, 2023 11:29:59 GMT
Yes, now recall it was Electoral Calculus who came up with the "so bad its good" overall prediction for May.
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Post by borisminor on Jul 20, 2023 11:30:23 GMT
Are these the same ones who got the local elections completely wrong? Didn't they only pick 'safe' councils and avoid any nasty ones with inconveniences such as strong opposition and third parties. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 20, 2023 11:36:28 GMT
Didn't they only pick 'safe' councils and avoid any nasty ones with inconveniences such as strong opposition and third parties. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084 
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 20, 2023 14:06:32 GMT
LibDem: 57.2%
Con: 27.1%
Lab: 6.0%
Reform: 4.5%
Green: 3.4%
UKIP: 1.0%
Mitchell: 0.5%
CPA: 0.3%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 14:31:35 GMT
All 21 entries posted so far have been accepted into the competition.
Competition open for entries until close of poll, 10pm tonight.
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haribo
Forum Regular
Posts: 12
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Post by haribo on Jul 20, 2023 20:58:52 GMT
Lib Dem 56.6
Con 27.6
Lab 6.8
Reform 4.7
Green 3.4
UKIP 0.5
CPA 0.2
Ind 0.2
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:06:10 GMT
All 22 entries posted so far have been accepted into the competition.
Competition now closed.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:08:58 GMT
Prediction Ranges
Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (CPA) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 1.80% by borisminor a range of 1.60%
Martin John DIMERY (Green) 2.30% by borisminor to 10% by greenhert a range of 6.50%
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats) 41.60% by doktorb to 60.60% by Roger Hamer a range of 17.00%
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK) 1.00% by mattb to 6.00% by doktorb a range of 4.30%
Neil William GUILD (Labour) 1.90% by sonofkrautrock to 12.20% by doktorb a range of 10.30%
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent) 0.10% by LDCaerdydd to 2.10% by doktorb a range of 1.90%
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative) 25.80% by PeterL to 40.00% by DHAA a range of 14.20%
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP) 0.20% by LDCaerdydd to 1.50% by swindonlad a range of 0.90%
Winning margin prediction range
22 out of 22 predict a Liberal Democrat win over Conservatives ranging from 4.50% by swindonlad to 32.60% by Roger Hamer a range of 28.10%
(Errors possible in above)
See later post.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:10:07 GMT
I plan to post result between 8am and 10am tomorrow, this is likely not certain.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,687
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Post by mboy on Jul 20, 2023 21:14:12 GMT
Despite my recent rift with the Lib Dems, I hope they win here. David Heath was one of the finest liberals you could ever meet, and the best MP this seat had - it deserves to stay liberal. I think they will win with over 50%.
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