iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
|
Post by iain on Jul 21, 2023 14:20:52 GMT
Lib Dems claiming they won based on 'life long tory voters' despite having held the seat for the last 18 years just 8 years ago By wafer-thin margins on each occasions. This time was different. But we won fewer actual votes than in any of our previous victories. |
|
polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
|
Post by polupolu on Jul 21, 2023 14:23:44 GMT
Our 10th female MP out of 15.
|
|
r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,173
Member is Online
|
Post by r34t on Jul 21, 2023 14:26:23 GMT
Our internal stuff was telling us that the Tories were fighting a much better campaign than they had done in some of the other recent by-elections Interesting, because as a local politico in neither of the top 2 camps the impression I got was of a lacklustre Tory campaign. Certainly in the northern end villages, which should have had a good Tory base vote, I was being told by residents they hadn’t had any leaflets or visits. There were a few Tory posters on roadsides, but didn’t see any in gardens or windows. Who knows 🤷♂️ |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Jul 21, 2023 15:46:27 GMT
Our 10th female MP out of 15. Are you planning on introducing all-male shortlists to redress the imbalance? |
|
polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
|
Post by polupolu on Jul 21, 2023 15:50:56 GMT
Our 10th female MP out of 15. Are you planning on introducing all-male shortlists to redress the imbalance? Personally, no. |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 16:58:38 GMT
| LD | 374 | | Lab | 166 | | SNP | 52 | | Con | 32 | | PC | 4 | | Ref/BP | 2 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | | | | LD Majority | 116 |
The proper “a bit of fun” map would apply the Selby & Ainsty swing to all Con/Lab constituencies, and the Somerton & Frome swing to all Con/LDcomstituencies. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 17:06:35 GMT
| LD | 374 | | Lab | 166 | | SNP | 52 | | Con | 32 | | PC | 4 | | Ref/BP | 2 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | | | | LD Majority | 116 |
The proper “a bit of fun” map would apply the Selby & Ainsty swing to all Con/Lab constituencies, and the Somerton & Frome swing to all Con/LDcomstituencies. It might be hard to define in some cases - which is Hertfordshire South West for example? It is interesting to note that only 15 constituencies were Conservative held on the basis of both the Selby and Somerton swings: Sittingbourne & Sheppey; Castle Point; Rayleigh & Wickford; Maldon; Witham; Clacton; Norfolk SW; Cambridgeshire NE; South Holland; Boston & Skegness; Sleaford; Louth & Horncastle; Brigg & Goole*; Staffordshire South; Aldridge Brownhills *Brigg & Goole was the only seat held by the Conservatives in either scenario in the entire North of England (of which it is only partially/arguably a part) |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 17:25:28 GMT
Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate. Are you thinking of any other specific examples apart from Somerton & Frome? |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 17:42:39 GMT
The proper “a bit of fun” map would apply the Selby & Ainsty swing to all Con/Lab constituencies, and the Somerton & Frome swing to all Con/LDcomstituencies. It might be hard to define in some cases - which is Hertfordshire South West for example?) Make an ad-hoc decision and treat it as a Con/Lab seat. |
|
|
|
Post by stodge on Jul 21, 2023 19:51:29 GMT
By wafer-thin margins on each occasions. This time was different. But we won fewer actual votes than in any of our previous victories. The turnout was around 45% - about 26,000 fewer voters than in 2019 and coincidentally the Conservatives were down about 26,000. Clearly then, a lot of Conservatives stayed at home. Yes, I'm not convinced either - a 29% swing can't just be explained away by a bit of apathy and in any case how many of the missing 26,000 were our missing Tories ? |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Jul 21, 2023 20:43:39 GMT
It is interesting to note that only 15 constituencies were Conservative held on the basis of both the Selby and Somerton swings: Sittingbourne & Sheppey; Castle Point; Rayleigh & Wickford; Maldon; Witham; Clacton; Norfolk SW; Cambridgeshire NE; South Holland; Boston & Skegness; Sleaford; Louth & Horncastle; Brigg & Goole*; Staffordshire South; Aldridge Brownhills *Brigg & Goole was the only seat held by the Conservatives in either scenario in the entire North of England (of which it is only partially/arguably a part) The concentrations in Essex and Lincolnshire are striking. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jul 21, 2023 21:26:37 GMT
It is interesting to note that only 15 constituencies were Conservative held on the basis of both the Selby and Somerton swings: Sittingbourne & Sheppey; Castle Point; Rayleigh & Wickford; Maldon; Witham; Clacton; Norfolk SW; Cambridgeshire NE; South Holland; Boston & Skegness; Sleaford; Louth & Horncastle; Brigg & Goole*; Staffordshire South; Aldridge Brownhills *Brigg & Goole was the only seat held by the Conservatives in either scenario in the entire North of England (of which it is only partially/arguably a part) The concentrations in Essex and Lincolnshire are striking. In both cases, including seats Labour actually won during the Blair years (though only briefly in the case of Castle Point and on more favourable boundaries in the case of Clacton). |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2023 5:57:32 GMT
Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate. Are you thinking of any other specific examples apart from Somerton & Frome? Are you aware of Ruth Ellen Brousseau? |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2023 5:58:48 GMT
Our 10th female MP out of 15. Are you planning on introducing all-male shortlists to redress the imbalance? She's only the 3rd Sarah out of 15, I plan on introducing all-Sarah shortlists. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 7:25:40 GMT
and yet another Sarah, Teather, also won a by-election for the Lib Dems. I think if I wanted that desperately to be in parliament a name change to Sarah might help plus a change of party
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2023 10:45:48 GMT
The concentrations in Essex and Lincolnshire are striking. In both cases, including seats Labour actually won during the Blair years (though only briefly in the case of Castle Point and on more favourable boundaries in the case of Clacton). As with Brigg and Goole until 2010 - genuinely hard to believe now. |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Jul 22, 2023 12:36:49 GMT
Are you thinking of any other specific examples apart from Somerton & Frome? Are you aware of Ruth Ellen Brousseau? No I hadn’t, but it’s a hilariously fascinating story. She didn’t campaign, didn’t visit the constituency, didn’t expect to win, went on holiday in the middle of the election campaign, couldn’t speak French in a constituency where 77% of the voters are monolingual Francophone, but went up from 10% in 4th place to 39% in 1st place, and won the seat. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Ellen_Brosseau |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2023 13:46:51 GMT
Are you aware of Ruth Ellen Brousseau? No I hadn’t.. This is untrue. You had heard of her but had forgotten. She was widely discussed on the Canada election threads both at the time of her first election and her subsequent re-election and we know you follow those threads because your sister lived in Alberta at the time and you posted on them. |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Jul 22, 2023 20:50:04 GMT
This is untrue. You had heard of her but had forgotten. She was widely discussed on the Canada election threads both at the time of her first election and her subsequent re-election and we know you follow those threads because your sister lived in Alberta at the time and you posted on them. (1) She can’t possibly have been widely discussed at the time of her first election, because her first election was in 2011 and this forum didn’t start until 2012. (2) My sister didn’t move to Alberta until 2012, so I wouldn’t have had any special interest in Canadian elections, beyond the normal background level, at that time, even if the forum had existed in 2011, which it didn’t. (3) A brief search of the Canada threads reveals two brief mentions of Ruth Ellen Brosseau in 2019, and two in 2021, but none in 2015. And none in 2011, because the forum didn’t exist in 2011. In those posts, she was mentioned in passing in the middle of a longer text, and was not the main subject of the text. (4) There is no reason for me to have noticed or remembered those mentions, because my focus would have been on Edmonton and Alberta, not Quebec. Anybody who is daft enough to think that that amount of mentions is enough to constitute her being “widely discussed” is an insane hysterical person who has probably accidentally swallowed a moose. |
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Jul 22, 2023 21:04:24 GMT
Our 10th female MP out of 15. What was the composition of the Lib Dem parliamentary party prior to 2015. You’ve not arrived at this statistic by choice |
|
