Somerton and Frome

[Deleted]

Jul 21, 2023 5:33:34 GMT @weld said:

Conservative to Liberal Democrat swings

North Shropshire 2021: 34.2%

Tiverton & Honiton 2022: 29.9%

Somerton & Frome 2023: 29%

Chesham & Amersham 2021: 25.2%

Ironically, the result in C&A is perhaps the most stunning. The cause of the by-election was not a scandal, but the death of the sitting MP and it was held at a time when Johnson was relatively popular and before the rot really set in.

[batman]

it's also very close to Johnson's own constituency. I used to have a close friend in Chalfont St Peter, which is and was in C&A (he later moved to London) and regularly drove through what was then the Uxbridge constituency to get to his house. This is before the A408 was constructed and the M25 was finished, and you drove through Yiewsley, Cowley & Uxbridge proper to get to Bucks.

[bsjmcr]

Jul 21, 2023 7:51:04 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Jul 21, 2023 5:33:34 GMT @weld said:

Conservative to Liberal Democrat swings

North Shropshire 2021: 34.2%

Tiverton & Honiton 2022: 29.9%

Somerton & Frome 2023: 29%

Chesham & Amersham 2021: 25.2%

Ironically, the result in C&A is perhaps the most stunning. The cause of the by-election was not a scandal, but the death of the sitting MP and it was held at a time when Johnson was relatively popular and before the rot really set in.

I think it had virtually zero coverage either during the campaign or even at the count itself. It just came out of the blue. If anything, it probably triggered Sky and others to pull their finger out and cover the subsequent by-elections a bit better. 

Disgusting that the news article quoted earlier skipped the Green tally. Had Reform done better or Fox had saved his deposit in Uxbridge, you wouldn’t have heard the end of it.  I assume that here the green votes would have mostly come from the Frome area? 

[The Bishop]

Jul 21, 2023 1:56:32 GMT ricmk said:

Sean Dromgoole resigned from Labour for avoiding that thrashing - a poisoned chalice.

Tbf he might have managed to finish ahead of Reform....

[Deleted]

Jul 21, 2023 9:30:31 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 21, 2023 7:51:04 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Ironically, the result in C&A is perhaps the most stunning. The cause of the by-election was not a scandal, but the death of the sitting MP and it was held at a time when Johnson was relatively popular and before the rot really set in.

I think it had virtually zero coverage either during the campaign or even at the count itself. It just came out of the blue. If anything, it probably triggered Sky and others to pull their finger out and cover the subsequent by-elections a bit better. 

Disgusting that the news article quoted earlier skipped the Green tally. Had Reform done better or Fox had saved his deposit in Uxbridge, you wouldn’t have heard the end of it.  I assume that here the green votes would have mostly come from the Frome area? 

Also, the Chesham result made it easier for the Lib Dems to claim that they were uniquely placed to defeat the Tories in subsequent by-elections. It was thus an essential element in the later successes.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate.

[bsjmcr]

Jul 21, 2023 10:31:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate.

Equally, I haven’t seen as much negative press on the losing Tory candidates in Somerton or Selby either. Unlike say Shropshire or Tiverton. I vaguely recall that the Chesham Tory candidate also rubbed some people up the wrong way but again only read about that afterwards.

Did the losing candidates this time genuinely try their best then in tough circumstances and not embarrass themselves (except in terms of the result). Will they be rewarded with a safe seat or Peerage next time?

[batman]

Jul 21, 2023 10:31:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate.

you can in terms of the discussion post-poll, but I did say the same at the time as did others. I never for one moment thought it gave the Tories a serious chance of holding the seat.

[batman]

Jul 21, 2023 10:40:55 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 21, 2023 10:31:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate.

Equally, I haven’t seen as much negative press on the losing Tory candidates in Somerton or Selby either. Unlike say Shropshire or Tiverton. I vaguely recall that the Chesham Tory candidate also rubbed some people up the wrong way but again only read about that afterwards.

Did the losing candidates this time genuinely try their best then in tough circumstances and not embarrass themselves (except in terms of the result). Will they be rewarded with a safe seat or Peerage next time?

Danny Beales will most certainly not be given a peerage in the foreseeable future. He may however stand again for Parliament, if not in U&SR somewhere else.

[The Bishop]

Was it simply a matter of keeping the LibDem candidate out of harm's way after that initial mishap, or did she genuinely improve?

[iain]

Jul 21, 2023 10:59:50 GMT The Bishop said:

Was it simply a matter of keeping the LibDem candidate out of harm's way after that initial mishap, or did she genuinely improve?

She did lots of media before and after that interview (though less after) and always did fine. The terrible interview with the Guardian was a quite weird aberration.

[graham]

Jul 21, 2023 9:35:30 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 21, 2023 1:56:32 GMT ricmk said:

Sean Dromgoole resigned from Labour for avoiding that thrashing - a poisoned chalice.

Tbf he might have managed to finish ahead of Reform....

Perhaps his party feared he might have put in too much effort!

Many Labour voters probably switched to the Greens here - stupid that Labour failed to mount a campaign at all.

[borisminor]

Jul 21, 2023 10:40:55 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 21, 2023 10:31:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate.

Equally, I haven’t seen as much negative press on the losing Tory candidates in Somerton or Selby either. Unlike say Shropshire or Tiverton. I vaguely recall that the Chesham Tory candidate also rubbed some people up the wrong way but again only read about that afterwards.

Did the losing candidates this time genuinely try their best then in tough circumstances and not embarrass themselves (except in terms of the result). Will they be rewarded with a safe seat or Peerage next time?

The defeated Conservative in Chesham gave one of the most bitter post defeat interviews I have seen. Was he winding people up before that.

[r34t]

Jul 21, 2023 11:07:00 GMT iain said:

Jul 21, 2023 10:59:50 GMT The Bishop said:

Was it simply a matter of keeping the LibDem candidate out of harm's way after that initial mishap, or did she genuinely improve?

She did lots of media before and after that interview (though less after) and always did fine. The terrible interview with the Guardian was a quite weird aberration.

If you are going to wobble then do it early - & hands up, I thought it would do her more damage than it did, which in the end was nothing at all.

The LDs were helped by a lacklustre (being polite) Tory campaign & their odd ‘one of us’ campaign slogan, targeting a candidate from …. a local farming family …

[YL]

Jul 21, 2023 11:41:18 GMT borisminor said:

Jul 21, 2023 10:40:55 GMT bsjmcr said:

Equally, I haven’t seen as much negative press on the losing Tory candidates in Somerton or Selby either. Unlike say Shropshire or Tiverton. I vaguely recall that the Chesham Tory candidate also rubbed some people up the wrong way but again only read about that afterwards.

Did the losing candidates this time genuinely try their best then in tough circumstances and not embarrass themselves (except in terms of the result). Will they be rewarded with a safe seat or Peerage next time?

The defeated Conservative in Chesham gave one of the most bitter post defeat interviews I have seen. Was he winding people up before that.

My understanding is that he was.

[iang]

Our internal stuff was telling us that the Tories were fighting a much better campaign than they had done in some of the other recent by-elections

[andrewp]

Jul 21, 2023 12:48:28 GMT iang said:

Our internal stuff was telling us that the Tories were fighting a much better campaign than they had done in some of the other recent by-elections

I think they did too. Perhaps it’s tempting to think the campaigns don’t make that much difference?

Although having said that the swing, whilst huge, was a bit lower than Tiverton when it might have been bigger as the polls are worse for the Tories now than they were at the time of Tiverton.

[Pete Whitehead]

LD	374
Lab	166
SNP	52
Con	32
PC	4
Ref/BP	2
Grn	1
Speaker	1
LD Majority	116

[edgbaston]

Lib Dems claiming they won based on 'life long tory voters' despite having held the seat for the last 18 years just 8 years ago

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 21, 2023 14:07:58 GMT edgbaston said:

Lib Dems claiming they won based on 'life long tory voters' despite having held the seat for the last 18 years just 8 years ago

By wafer-thin margins on each occasions. This time was different.