YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jun 23, 2023 12:20:45 GMT
Someone called Rosie Mitchell is standing as an "Independent Socialist". |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,181
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Post by r34t on Jun 23, 2023 14:41:22 GMT
My feeling is that if she pulls things together and does much better in future media encounters then things will probably work out OK in the end, but if it's followed by further disasters then, well. Define 'OK in the end'  # if it's about winning the byelection then a 19k majority gives very little room for manoeuvre, especially as Labour will be working the Frome end of the constituency. # It it's doing well enough to still be a GE candidate in the winnable Somerton & Glastonbury then yes that may work out. # Many more miss-steps & her political career is over. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jun 23, 2023 15:06:47 GMT
My feeling is that if she pulls things together and does much better in future media encounters then things will probably work out OK in the end, but if it's followed by further disasters then, well. Define 'OK in the end' # if it's about winning the byelection then a 19k majority gives very little room for manoeuvre, especially as Labour will be working the Frome end of the constituency. # It it's doing well enough to still be a GE candidate in the winnable Somerton & Glastonbury then yes that may work out. # Many more miss-steps & her political career is over. It's an oversized constituency, so percentage majority can be a little misleading. The swing needed for the Lib Dems to win is just under 15%; compare what they actually got in Chesham & Amersham (25.2%), North Shropshire (34.2%, in spite of Labour quite comfortably saving their deposit) and Tiverton & Honiton (29.9%). So I would argue that there is in fact a fair amount of leeway, and that if she gets her act together she is still in a strong position to win this. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 23, 2023 15:08:38 GMT
Define 'OK in the end' # if it's about winning the byelection then a 19k majority gives very little room for manoeuvre, especially as Labour will be working the Frome end of the constituency. # It it's doing well enough to still be a GE candidate in the winnable Somerton & Glastonbury then yes that may work out. # Many more miss-steps & her political career is over. It's an oversized constituency, so percentage majority can be a little misleading. The swing needed for the Lib Dems to win is just under 15%; compare what they actually got in Chesham & Amersham (25.2%), North Shropshire (34.2%, in spite of Labour quite comfortably saving their deposit) and Tiverton & Honiton (29.9%). So I would argue that there is in fact a fair amount of leeway, and that if she gets her act together she is still in a strong position to win this. She will win despite gaffes. I’m trying to think what she would have to do not to win and I think it would have to be something pretty massive. She’s probably starting a football match 8-0 up against a team that’s in pretty bad shape and she’s just scored an own goal in the first minute so it’s 8-1 now. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 23, 2023 16:23:15 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 23, 2023 16:24:07 GMT
Eight candidates. CORKE, Lorna Irene Bromley (Christian Peoples Alliance) DIMERY, Martin John (The Green Party Candidate) DYKE, Sarah Joanne (Liberal Democrats) EVANS, Bruce David (Reform UK) GUILD, Neil William (Labour Party) MITCHELL, Rosie (Independent) PURBRICK, Faye Marie (The Conservative Party Candidate) RICHARDSON, Peter Kevin (UK Independence Party)
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Post by jakegb on Jun 23, 2023 18:06:54 GMT
Though the Lib Dems remain frontrunners here, I think John Harris' interview shines a light on the immense pressure felt by by-election candidates (whether from the incumbent party or challengers).
In the 2019- parliament, prior to this week, the Tories have been most exposed in this regard. E.g. selection of Shastri-Hurst in N Shropshire, Helen Hurford's decision to hide herself + team away from the T and H declaration. These factors certainly helped the Lib Dems in these by-elections, though Morgan and Foord's passion for their constituencies helped also.
But this week it was Sarah Dyke' turn - and given the high-flying Lib Dems successes in 2021 and 2022, I bet she feels immense pressure. So, on a human level, I have some sympathy (despite how unprepared she was) - by-elections can be cruel, demoralising experiences.
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Post by aidypiez on Jun 23, 2023 18:43:17 GMT
Though the Lib Dems remain frontrunners here, I think John Harris' interview shines a light on the immense pressure felt by by-election candidates (whether from the incumbent party or challengers). In the 2019- parliament, prior to this week, the Tories have been most exposed in this regard. E.g. selection of Shastri-Hurst in N Shropshire, Helen Hurford's decision to hide herself + team away from the T and H declaration. These factors certainly helped the Lib Dems in these by-elections, though Morgan and Foord's passion for their constituencies helped also. But this week it was Sarah Dyke' turn - and given the high-flying Lib Dems successes in 2021 and 2022, I bet she feels immense pressure. So, on a human level, I have some sympathy (despite how unprepared she was) - by-elections can be cruel, demoralising experiences. Helen hurford hid herself away after she knew she'd lost. So while it was funny, it had zero bearing on the result |
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Post by jakegb on Jun 23, 2023 18:53:14 GMT
Though the Lib Dems remain frontrunners here, I think John Harris' interview shines a light on the immense pressure felt by by-election candidates (whether from the incumbent party or challengers). In the 2019- parliament, prior to this week, the Tories have been most exposed in this regard. E.g. selection of Shastri-Hurst in N Shropshire, Helen Hurford's decision to hide herself + team away from the T and H declaration. These factors certainly helped the Lib Dems in these by-elections, though Morgan and Foord's passion for their constituencies helped also. But this week it was Sarah Dyke' turn - and given the high-flying Lib Dems successes in 2021 and 2022, I bet she feels immense pressure. So, on a human level, I have some sympathy (despite how unprepared she was) - by-elections can be cruel, demoralising experiences. Helen hurford hid herself away after she knew she'd lost. So while it was funny, it had zero bearing on the result Hurford was widely considered to be out of her depth prior to the declaration. Her decision to hide away may be 'funny' for some; but for me, the situation was rather sad - and underlined the over-whelming pressure of these experiences. And I would probably extend the same view to Paul Williams (Hartlepool) who similarly was not present at the declaration. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 23, 2023 19:21:41 GMT
Helen hurford hid herself away after she knew she'd lost. So while it was funny, it had zero bearing on the result Hurford was widely considered to be out of her depth prior to the declaration. Her decision to hide away may be 'funny' for some; but for me, the situation was rather sad - and underlined the over-whelming pressure of these experiences. And I would probably extend the same view to Paul Williams (Hartlepool) who similarly was not present at the declaration. Hurford felt like a sacrificial victim, offered up to cope with a mess of others' making. She was rubbish, but it wasn't her fault no-one better was willing to have a go. Dykes can't afford to be out of her depth. She needs to be the best we've got in the area. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 23, 2023 19:24:30 GMT
Though the Lib Dems remain frontrunners here, I think John Harris' interview shines a light on the immense pressure felt by by-election candidates (whether from the incumbent party or challengers). In the 2019- parliament, prior to this week, the Tories have been most exposed in this regard. E.g. selection of Shastri-Hurst in N Shropshire, Helen Hurford's decision to hide herself + team away from the T and H declaration. These factors certainly helped the Lib Dems in these by-elections, though Morgan and Foord's passion for their constituencies helped also. But this week it was Sarah Dyke' turn - and given the high-flying Lib Dems successes in 2021 and 2022, I bet she feels immense pressure. So, on a human level, I have some sympathy (despite how unprepared she was) - by-elections can be cruel, demoralising experiences. It's a fair enough point but Sarah Dyke was selected ages ago with a by-election in mind and as a target seat candidate for the next GE (whenever it comes). She's a councillor and cabinet member in the majority administration of Somerset Council. For her to be so unprepared shows a criminal lack of preparation and support from Lib Dem HQ. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,730
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 23, 2023 20:02:22 GMT
A bit of chatter among some in Somerset Labour circles about Sean Droomgoole not being selected.
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Post by jakegb on Jun 23, 2023 20:23:15 GMT
Though the Lib Dems remain frontrunners here, I think John Harris' interview shines a light on the immense pressure felt by by-election candidates (whether from the incumbent party or challengers). In the 2019- parliament, prior to this week, the Tories have been most exposed in this regard. E.g. selection of Shastri-Hurst in N Shropshire, Helen Hurford's decision to hide herself + team away from the T and H declaration. These factors certainly helped the Lib Dems in these by-elections, though Morgan and Foord's passion for their constituencies helped also. But this week it was Sarah Dyke' turn - and given the high-flying Lib Dems successes in 2021 and 2022, I bet she feels immense pressure. So, on a human level, I have some sympathy (despite how unprepared she was) - by-elections can be cruel, demoralising experiences. It's a fair enough point but Sarah Dyke was selected ages ago with a by-election in mind and as a target seat candidate for the next GE (whenever it comes). She's a councillor and cabinet member in the majority administration of Somerset Council. For her to be so unprepared shows a criminal lack of preparation and support from Lib Dem HQ. Completely agree - I understand that the Mid Beds may have diverted the leadership's attention somewhat. But at the same, Warburton's troubles were well known - there was plenty of time for the leadership to brief Sarah Dyke on what to expect/how to go about interviews. Perhaps they did ... but then that certainly did not come across in the interview. This then leads to troubling questions about the effectiveness of the Lib Dems' selection process. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 24, 2023 8:09:00 GMT
A bit of chatter among some in Somerset Labour circles about Sean Droomgoole not being selected. There'll be ringing in the streets. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 24, 2023 8:20:27 GMT
A bit of chatter among some in Somerset Labour circles about Sean Droomgoole not being selected. Neil Guild stood in Taunton last time and made the final 3 for the Exeter selection. It will be interesting to see if he’s a contender if the Labour nomination for one of the Bristol seats comes up at any point soon. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,730
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 24, 2023 8:36:47 GMT
A bit of chatter among some in Somerset Labour circles about Sean Droomgoole not being selected. Neil Guild stood in Taunton last time and made the final 3 for the Exeter selection. It will be interesting to see if he’s a contender if the Labour nomination for one of the Bristol seats comes up at any point soon. Mr Droomgoole being very phlegmatic. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2023 10:07:21 GMT
A bit of chatter among some in Somerset Labour circles about Sean Droomgoole not being selected. Neil Guild stood in Taunton last time and made the final 3 for the Exeter selection. It will be interesting to see if he’s a contender if the Labour nomination for one of the Bristol seats comes up at any point soon. Neil Guild was not Labour's candidate there in 2019 . He actually stood in 2015. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 24, 2023 18:59:14 GMT
Neil Guild stood in Taunton last time and made the final 3 for the Exeter selection. It will be interesting to see if he’s a contender if the Labour nomination for one of the Bristol seats comes up at any point soon. Mr Droomgoole being very phlegmatic. Well, as result of this, I am now back in touch with an old schoolfriend for the first time in over 40 years! |
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 25, 2023 13:01:58 GMT
The Lib Dem’s don’t get many MPs, you’d think they’d try and ensure those they do have were good communicators… but yet..
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Post by johnloony on Jun 25, 2023 13:16:57 GMT
The Lib Dem’s don’t get many MPs, you’d think they’d try and ensure those they do have were good communicators… but yet.. Again?? In by-election campaigns, don’t the agents usually just arrange for their candidates to shut up and say nothing, rather than letting themselves dig further into the hole? |
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