YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 22, 2023 20:34:22 GMT
The Tory candidate is Faye Purbrick, councillor for Yeovil South.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 22, 2023 20:34:56 GMT
Are would be correct if they identify as they / them.  That's it, you have triggered carlton43 . I would suggest you make a break for it as I hear the sounds of carriage wheels heading your way and what sounds worryingly like shrapnel being stuffed into a blunderbuss. He's welcome to take a shot, as I'm planning to rewrite the original story as Snow White and her Seven Dwives, to make it relevant to the modern world. 😉 Runs and hides 🫣 |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Jun 22, 2023 21:21:30 GMT
Recoverable in a GE campaign. Not in a by-election. Surely the number of people who will even hear that interview is minuscule. And the number of people who will vote for an alternative candidate because of it even lower. |
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2023 21:34:32 GMT
I agree. If I were the local Tories I wouldn't allow this to get my hopes up, as it were.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 22, 2023 21:36:01 GMT
Lies, damned lies and statistics! you could've also highlighted that only 1 in 7 are grumpy  The stats are suspect because some respondents are bashful Also need to look into the sampling methodology as it seems 1 in 7 respondents were in the medical profession! |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2023 22:27:06 GMT
The Tory candidate is Faye Purbrick, councillor for Yeovil South. She’s pretty good, She did very very well to hold a seat in Yeovil South last year, She will lose obviously though. |
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2023 22:48:21 GMT
isn't Yeovil South the ward that elected that rarest of beasts, a Labour councillor in South Somerset, in the 1995 elections?
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2023 23:29:18 GMT
Recoverable in a GE campaign. Not in a by-election. Surely the number of people who will even hear that interview is minuscule. And the number of people who will vote for an alternative candidate because of it even lower. That may well be correct but there is some danger to the LDs that the interview becomes a major story in itself and that voters are encoraged to tune in to it on a significant scale. The Green candidate was certainly far more impressive. |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Jun 22, 2023 23:45:14 GMT
One of my vague political fantasies is that Mebyon Kernow might (or could have, in the past) grown to the point of winning an MP or two in Cornwall (not just a few seats at the local elections level), just like Plaid Cymru did.
Just the other day I was imaging a parliamentary by-election in Cornwall in which a big gaffe in the middle of the campaign by the Lib Dem candidate causes a sudden collapse of the Lib Dem vote, and a wholesale switch to MK enabling it to win the seat - perhaps as a three-way marginal result.
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Jun 23, 2023 0:22:53 GMT
Surely the number of people who will even hear that interview is minuscule. And the number of people who will vote for an alternative candidate because of it even lower. That may well be correct but there is some danger to the LDs that the interview becomes a major story in itself and that voters are encoraged to tune in to it on a significant scale. The Green candidate was certainly far more impressive. Sure, but I still think the number of LD-inclined voters who will listen to an interview on what is effectively a Guardian podcast and decide to vote for another party instead is a very small number indeed. Especially given the rapid and plausible apology she made. I may be proved wrong tho!! |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 23, 2023 6:11:21 GMT
isn't Yeovil South the ward that elected that rarest of beasts, a Labour councillor in South Somerset, in the 1995 elections? Yes it is. I’m not sure if the boundaries were much different then. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 23, 2023 8:22:17 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 23, 2023 8:48:31 GMT
Talking of not entirely helpful interviews, David Warburton has been talking to the BBC and I'm not sure he does himself any favours here: Not using his loaf? |
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2023 8:54:56 GMT
is he actually anything to do with the baking family?
There used to be a different David Warburton who was a known figure on the right/"moderate" wing of the trade union movement.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 23, 2023 8:59:18 GMT
is he actually anything to do with the baking family? There used to be a different David Warburton who was a known figure on the right/"moderate" wing of the trade union movement. National Officer of the GMWU for many years (before it merged with the boilermakers').  |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 23, 2023 10:02:05 GMT
Do we believe Mr W? Does he look like an innocent middle aged stuffy conservative home loving chap that has never transgressed, EVER!? That 'in a moment of madness' and for the first time in his life he became drunk on JAPANESE whiskey and was quite unaware that it could be so strong! And oddly found himself at night in the flat of a woman he hardly knew and for the life of him does not know why! And there for the FIRST and for the ONLY time became acquainted with some white powder of which he forgets the actual name? Well, his wife says that she does. I hope she is just being brave and supportive. He does not deserve her nor she him. I don't believe a single word of it and he would have done well to have stayed silent and to have been very kind to his wife from now on. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2023 11:22:36 GMT
Surely the number of people who will even hear that interview is minuscule. And the number of people who will vote for an alternative candidate because of it even lower. That may well be correct but there is some danger to the LDs that the interview becomes a major story in itself and that voters are encoraged to tune in to it on a significant scale. The Green candidate was certainly far more impressive. I suspect the best strategy may be to do another interview ASAP, where she gives a rather better account of herself. |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jun 23, 2023 11:26:44 GMT
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 23, 2023 11:39:32 GMT
That may well be correct but there is some danger to the LDs that the interview becomes a major story in itself and that voters are encoraged to tune in to it on a significant scale. The Green candidate was certainly far more impressive. Sure, but I still think the number of LD-inclined voters who will listen to an interview on what is effectively a Guardian podcast and decide to vote for another party instead is a very small number indeed. Especially given the rapid and plausible apology she made. I may be proved wrong tho!! Dunno, really. Make of this what you will, but I only knew about it due to this forum and eventually spotting a reference in the Guardian, not especially prominent in their reporting on the by-election (itself a low-profile story on their site.) Of course if I was an actual voter in S & FR I might have spotted it earlier, though I suspect that something on local radio/in the local paper/on regional TV would be more dangerous. The Graun is most likely to be read by people hostile to the Tories anyway and (unlike, say, Mid-Beds) I'd have thought it pretty clear what their options are, irrespective of the candidate. Of course it's different if this turns out to be symptomatic of her being Bloody Useless, but otherwise I guess it depends on how effectively it can be used against her by opponents. But again, I think it easier for Lab or Greens to do that than Conservatives, since the issues she was ignorant of are the sort of thing the Tories wouldn't want to draw too much attention to anyway. And I just don't see either Lab or Greens establishing themselves as front runners here. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 23, 2023 12:17:34 GMT
Dunno, really. Make of this what you will, but I only knew about it due to this forum and eventually spotting a reference in the Guardian, not especially prominent in their reporting on the by-election (itself a low-profile story on their site.) Of course if I was an actual voter in S & FR I might have spotted it earlier, though I suspect that something on local radio/in the local paper/on regional TV would be more dangerous. The Graun is most likely to be read by people hostile to the Tories anyway and (unlike, say, Mid-Beds) I'd have thought it pretty clear what their options are, irrespective of the candidate. Of course it's different if this turns out to be symptomatic of her being Bloody Useless, but otherwise I guess it depends on how effectively it can be used against her by opponents. But again, I think it easier for Lab or Greens to do that than Conservatives, since the issues she was ignorant of are the sort of thing the Tories wouldn't want to draw too much attention to anyway. And I just don't see either Lab or Greens establishing themselves as front runners here. I first saw it on Twitter, but I was searching for news about the by-election. My feeling is that if she pulls things together and does much better in future media encounters then things will probably work out OK in the end, but if it's followed by further disasters then, well. |
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