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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2023 8:12:27 GMT
The OMRLP constitution states explicitly that Alan Hope is leader for life. A leadership election has to wait until he explodes. Perhaps an explosion could be encouraged..... It may have been remarked on elsewhere, but as many know Alan Hope used to be joint leader of the OMRLP with his cat, Mandu. And now of course the Women's Equality Party is led by a Mandu. Perhaps more Mandus in leadership roles will follow in British politics. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 22, 2023 8:19:28 GMT
A generation from now people won’t remember that Wakefield used to have Tories. If you find one get a picture with them, show it to the grandkids. I suspect in 50 years having stood for Wandsworth conservatives in a year where we won is going to make me sound absolutely Palaeolithic. Not going to win there again. Demographics simply aren't there. A bit like how we'd view the last conservative administration in Liverpool. I doubt that to be honest. Under a Labour government there would be a swing back in London the same as everywhere else. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2023 8:32:16 GMT
Never say never. There are no Conservative borough councillors in Nantwich. One of the most deprived areas of Crewe has a Conservative borough councillor. Strange times. That doesn't surprise me at all. That seems to be the general post brexit pattern. Politics has realigned a lot since 2016. Nothings precluding Futher realignments. Posts like this make me wish proboards had a laugh react like Facebook does |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 22, 2023 8:49:15 GMT
I wasn't aware that schoolchildren (whose commuting habits often differ from those of their parents) were a marginal group in most areas. But yes, the figures are even less meaningful in 2021 than they would be in any other year. They aren't a marginal group but their patterns wouldn't be particularly meaningful - for short trips you'll get a lot of walking with some cycling; for longer trips the bus will dominate. If anything the fact most children grow up in suburban areas rather than city centres will obscure differences between areas by making public transport usage look higher in areas where it is quite low but not really increasing it in areas where it is already high. Students may actually be a little more interesting (though some work* so there would be issues with double counting), but again I'm not sure there'd be huge variation around the country, perhaps just a big uplift to cycling in a few cities and to buses in a few others. The current variable may not be perfect from a planning point of view but I understand why they focused on travel to work - and I suspect the more interesting figures will be the breakdown by place of work once that comes out. * as an aside, this causes a strange issue with the current census data. A fairly significant number of long distance (>60km) commuters "travel to work" on foot - and when you dig in to the data these are overwhelmingly in student areas. I suspect these are students who work outside of term time, in locations close to their home address but very far from their university address at which they are listed in the census. The commuting patterns of schoolchildren are also relatively easy to predict, because there are a limited number of schools and Sixth Forms for them to commute to. It's not useless data by any means, but you get more out of the census data for employees than you would for those in full-time education. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2023 9:18:10 GMT
A generation from now people won’t remember that Wakefield used to have Tories. If you find one get a picture with them, show it to the grandkids. I suspect in 50 years having stood for Wandsworth conservatives in a year where we won is going to make me sound absolutely Palaeolithic. Not going to win there again. Demographics simply aren't there. A bit like how we'd view the last conservative administration in Liverpool. But Wandsworth was Tory-controlled 1978 - 2022, and was seen - at least pre- Brexit - as an area shifting demographically to the Tories. That was particularly true of Putney and Battersea with the latter seat gained for the Tories for the first time in 1987 by John Bowis. He then went on to greatly increase the Tory majority there in 1992 against the national tide. The concensus view was that Labour was only likely to win those seats in landslide years - a view confirmed by the Tories having taken back Putney in 2005 followed by Battersea in 2010. |
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Post by melthamhd94nn on Jun 22, 2023 10:25:18 GMT
Matt Walker is the Lib Dem candidate. He is a councillor for Knaresborough om North Yorkshire Council.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 22, 2023 10:44:01 GMT
Matt Walker is the Lib Dem candidate. He is a councillor for Knaresborough om North Yorkshire Council. Probably confirms that they are not going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. He really will not be considered "the local choice", which is immaterial to me when it comes to voting, but seems to be a big bonus in LD campaigning. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2023 10:52:01 GMT
I suspect in 50 years having stood for Wandsworth conservatives in a year where we won is going to make me sound absolutely Palaeolithic. Not going to win there again. Demographics simply aren't there. A bit like how we'd view the last conservative administration in Liverpool. On that note it's always remarkable to think that John Major was a Conservative councillor in Brixton. Though it should be recalled that was in 1968, when the Tories won in a few places they have never managed to before or since. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 22, 2023 10:55:32 GMT
I suspect in 50 years having stood for Wandsworth conservatives in a year where we won is going to make me sound absolutely Palaeolithic. Not going to win there again. Demographics simply aren't there. A bit like how we'd view the last conservative administration in Liverpool. But Wandsworth was Tory-controlled 1978 - 2022, and was seen - at least pre- Brexit - as an area shifting demographically to the Tories. That was particularly true of Putney and Battersea with the latter seat gained for the Tories for the first time in 1987 by John Bowis. He then went on to greatly increase the Tory majority there in 1992 against the national tide. The concensus view was that Labour was only likely to win those seats in landslide years - a view confirmed by the Tories having taken back Putney in 2005 followed by Battersea in 2010. But there was a time in the 1980s-2000s when this was a sensible place to move for middle class families (and you of course had a lot of right to buy votes on the estates). It's no longer is. Without that core I think the tories will struggle. Its turning into a place for transient young people and very rich older people. Obviously brexit has been a big problem too. It's very establishment remain. It's much like Wimbledon. If the Lib Dem's ever get into second they'll easily displace labour. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2023 11:18:09 GMT
But Wandsworth was Tory-controlled 1978 - 2022, and was seen - at least pre- Brexit - as an area shifting demographically to the Tories. That was particularly true of Putney and Battersea with the latter seat gained for the Tories for the first time in 1987 by John Bowis. He then went on to greatly increase the Tory majority there in 1992 against the national tide. The concensus view was that Labour was only likely to win those seats in landslide years - a view confirmed by the Tories having taken back Putney in 2005 followed by Battersea in 2010. But there was a time in the 1980s-2000s when this was a sensible place to move for middle class families (and you of course had a lot of right to buy votes on the estates). It's no longer is. Without that core I think the tories will struggle. Its turning into a place for transient young people and very rich older people. Obviously brexit has been a big problem too. It's very establishment remain. It's much like Wimbledon. If the Lib Dem's ever get into second they'll easily displace labour. Brexit over time has lost much of its salience and that might help the Tories here just as it is likely to hit them in Red Wall seats. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 22, 2023 11:22:50 GMT
But Wandsworth was Tory-controlled 1978 - 2022, and was seen - at least pre- Brexit - as an area shifting demographically to the Tories. That was particularly true of Putney and Battersea with the latter seat gained for the Tories for the first time in 1987 by John Bowis. He then went on to greatly increase the Tory majority there in 1992 against the national tide. The concensus view was that Labour was only likely to win those seats in landslide years - a view confirmed by the Tories having taken back Putney in 2005 followed by Battersea in 2010. But there was a time in the 1980s-2000s when this was a sensible place to move for middle class families (and you of course had a lot of right to buy votes on the estates). It's no longer is. Without that core I think the tories will struggle. Its turning into a place for transient young people and very rich older people. Obviously brexit has been a big problem too. It's very establishment remain. It's much like Wimbledon. If the Lib Dem's ever get into second they'll easily displace labour. It's quite a large borough though and I can imagine the different areas going different ways. Battersea is quite a transient area (though for my sins I really like it there), but Putney feels a lot more stable in terms of demographics. Of all places it actually reminds me of Gosforth in terms of the feel of the place - though admittedly that comparison probably doesn't bode well for the Tory vote. I don't know Tooting at all well but as far as I can tell the changes there are fairly negligible now; there's some gentrification but the younger renters coming in are just as strongly Labour as the older families who are leaving. I could imagine it becoming another Merton, with a clear split between a battleground in the west (potentially involving more than two parties) and a fairly solidly Labour east. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 22, 2023 11:25:35 GMT
Brynmawr re-elected a Conservative councillor in 1995. Local elections are peculiar things in this country, and all manner of odd results can occur and in the least likely places.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 22, 2023 11:35:42 GMT
...and very rich older people. A famously poor demographic for the Conservative Party. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 22, 2023 11:41:31 GMT
Transient renters who can afford the rents in zones 1 and 2 would not that long ago have been a much better demographic for the Conservative Party than they are now.
And honestly if the Conservative Party cannot regain ground in opposition with the best off members of the under-35s, then that says something about the long-term health of the party.
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Post by jamie on Jun 22, 2023 12:31:41 GMT
Brynmawr re-elected a Conservative councillor in 1995. Local elections are peculiar things in this country, and all manner of odd results can occur and in the least likely places. That is genuinely the most random result I’ve ever seen. In similar cases there’s usually at least something to explain it (uncontested, very small size of ward, good year for party, hideously unpopular council etc), but that’s a case of everything actively pointing against a Conservative win and they still won 1 of the seats. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2023 12:38:00 GMT
Brynmawr re-elected a Conservative councillor in 1995. Local elections are peculiar things in this country, and all manner of odd results can occur and in the least likely places. That is genuinely the most random result I’ve ever seen. In similar cases there’s usually at least something to explain it (uncontested, very small size of ward, good year for party, hideously unpopular council etc), but that’s a case of everything actively pointing against a Conservative win and they still won 1 of the seats. It looks like that Councillor had been there since 1976, always as the only Conservative candidate and always topping the poll until 1995. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 22, 2023 12:59:48 GMT
Matt Walker is the Lib Dem candidate. He is a councillor for Knaresborough om North Yorkshire Council. Probably confirms that they are not going to throw the kotchen sink at this one. He really will not be considered "the local choice", which is immaterial to me when it comes to voting, but seems to be a big bonus in LD campaigning. Amongst their elected representatives, it's about as local as they could manage - he doesn't represent any part of the constituency, but they have no councillors there and his ward does border the constituency. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 22, 2023 13:39:05 GMT
...and very rich older people. A famously poor demographic for the Conservative Party. Yes but the problem is that we are over reliant on that demographic when it's not a huge % of the population. The middle families are mostly gone deeper into the suburbs. The right to buy people have left or died. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 22, 2023 13:44:05 GMT
Transient renters who can afford the rents in zones 1 and 2 would not that long ago have been a much better demographic for the Conservative Party than they are now. And honestly if the Conservative Party cannot regain ground in opposition with the best off members of the under-35s, then that says something about the long-term health of the party. We do terribly with young professional renters in SW London. The estates are less bad. At the same time - I can't see this demographic being happy with a labour government for long either. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 22, 2023 14:20:18 GMT
Transient renters who can afford the rents in zones 1 and 2 would not that long ago have been a much better demographic for the Conservative Party than they are now. And honestly if the Conservative Party cannot regain ground in opposition with the best off members of the under-35s, then that says something about the long-term health of the party. We do terribly with young professional renters in SW London. The estates are less bad. At the same time - I can't see this demographic being happy with a labour government for long either. Agree that more affluent younger voters could quickly sour on a Labour Government, but a lot depends on how badly hit the Conservative brand is post a GE loss. If the party doubles down on a core vote strategy - which it is showing a strong inclination to do - then they won't make significant gains with this group. Despite some overt NIMBYism elsewhere it's possible that this will be an opportunity for the LibDems, based more on vibes than any actual serious policies. |
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