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Post by aargauer on Jun 22, 2023 14:26:43 GMT
We do terribly with young professional renters in SW London. The estates are less bad. At the same time - I can't see this demographic being happy with a labour government for long either. Agree that more affluent younger voters could quickly sour on a Labour Government, but a lot depends on how badly hit the Conservative brand is post a GE loss. If the party doubles down on a core vote strategy - which it is showing a strong inclination to do - then they won't make significant gains with this group. Despite some overt NIMBYism elsewhere it's possible that this will be an opportunity for the LibDems, based more on vibes than any actual serious policies. The Lib Dem's have a bit of an open goal to capitalise on that group. They are in need of a bit of a rebrand and fresh faces, but the core values are closest to those of young middle class professionals. Some of their recent policies are extremely hostile to that group. I'm thinking of their nimbyism and the local income tax replacing council tax (hammering young over old!). But i don't think there's anything existential. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2023 14:38:02 GMT
But Wandsworth was Tory-controlled 1978 - 2022, and was seen - at least pre- Brexit - as an area shifting demographically to the Tories. That was particularly true of Putney and Battersea with the latter seat gained for the Tories for the first time in 1987 by John Bowis. He then went on to greatly increase the Tory majority there in 1992 against the national tide. The concensus view was that Labour was only likely to win those seats in landslide years - a view confirmed by the Tories having taken back Putney in 2005 followed by Battersea in 2010. But there was a time in the 1980s-2000s when this was a sensible place to move for middle class families (and you of course had a lot of right to buy votes on the estates). It's no longer is. Without that core I think the tories will struggle. Its turning into a place for transient young people and very rich older people. Obviously brexit has been a big problem too. It's very establishment remain. It's much like Wimbledon. If the Lib Dem's ever get into second they'll easily displace labour. So gentrification trend no longer helpful to Tories there? |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 22, 2023 14:50:54 GMT
But there was a time in the 1980s-2000s when this was a sensible place to move for middle class families (and you of course had a lot of right to buy votes on the estates). It's no longer is. Without that core I think the tories will struggle. Its turning into a place for transient young people and very rich older people. Obviously brexit has been a big problem too. It's very establishment remain. It's much like Wimbledon. If the Lib Dem's ever get into second they'll easily displace labour. So gentrification trend no longer helpful to Tories there? Gentrification is a hugely overused word. More of the uk is degentrifying than gentrifying. Wandsworth gentrified decades ago. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 22, 2023 15:07:23 GMT
Agree that more affluent younger voters could quickly sour on a Labour Government, but a lot depends on how badly hit the Conservative brand is post a GE loss. If the party doubles down on a core vote strategy - which it is showing a strong inclination to do - then they won't make significant gains with this group. Despite some overt NIMBYism elsewhere it's possible that this will be an opportunity for the LibDems, based more on vibes than any actual serious policies. The Lib Dem's have a bit of an open goal to capitalise on that group. They are in need of a bit of a rebrand and fresh faces, but the core values are closest to those of young middle class professionals. Some of their recent policies are extremely hostile to that group. I'm thinking of their nimbyism and the local income tax replacing council tax (hammering young over old!). But i don't think there's anything existential. I also think that enough time has passed that - in the event of a Labour government - a lot of the voters who soured on the LDs post-2010 will be open to a party that can present itself as aligning with their values. It a similar trick that Kennedy pulled off with left-of-center urban voters post-Iraq, but this time I think the potential for gains might be greater? Combining disaffected affluent Tories with alienated younger voters. It's a coalition that would likely be smashed apart in Government, but so long as LibDems avoid going into Government it could work v well for them for the next few cycles and could pose a real risk for Conservative hopes of clawing back ground. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2023 15:10:30 GMT
A lot of affluent younger voters - a group that I know reasonably well - are Conservative supporters. That number has decreased recently, but partly because Corbyn going meant they no longer see Labour being as deranged as they did a few years ago, and partly because the number of Conservative supporters has decreased sharply with every demographic recently
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 22, 2023 15:15:16 GMT
Brynmawr re-elected a Conservative councillor in 1995. Local elections are peculiar things in this country, and all manner of odd results can occur and in the least likely places. That is genuinely the most random result I’ve ever seen. In similar cases there’s usually at least something to explain it (uncontested, very small size of ward, good year for party, hideously unpopular council etc), but that’s a case of everything actively pointing against a Conservative win and they still won 1 of the seats. Tories gained a seat in Bradford in 1995. Their candidate had the same name (Hussain) as the Labour incumbent - might explain plenty? Considering Tories were wiped out practically everywhere across West Yorkshire and beyond, that year. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 22, 2023 15:38:34 GMT
So gentrification trend no longer helpful to Tories there? Gentrification is a hugely overused word. More of the uk is degentrifying than gentrifying. Wandsworth gentrified decades ago. Yet we only hear, for the most part, about gentrification of traditionally working class areas. The only time I have heard about "degentrification" recently is in relation to seaside towns such as Worthing. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 22, 2023 15:40:58 GMT
But there was a time in the 1980s-2000s when this was a sensible place to move for middle class families (and you of course had a lot of right to buy votes on the estates). It's no longer is. Without that core I think the tories will struggle. Its turning into a place for transient young people and very rich older people. Obviously brexit has been a big problem too. It's very establishment remain. It's much like Wimbledon. If the Lib Dem's ever get into second they'll easily displace labour. It's quite a large borough though and I can imagine the different areas going different ways. Battersea is quite a transient area (though for my sins I really like it there), but Putney feels a lot more stable in terms of demographics. Of all places it actually reminds me of Gosforth in terms of the feel of the place - though admittedly that comparison probably doesn't bode well for the Tory vote. I don't know Tooting at all well but as far as I can tell the changes there are fairly negligible now; there's some gentrification but the younger renters coming in are just as strongly Labour as the older families who are leaving. I could imagine it becoming another Merton, with a clear split between a battleground in the west (potentially involving more than two parties) and a fairly solidly Labour east. Funnily enough Gosforth is strongly Liberal Democrat at local level and this used to extend strongly at parliamentary level as well. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 22, 2023 16:23:13 GMT
Gentrification is a hugely overused word. More of the uk is degentrifying than gentrifying. Wandsworth gentrified decades ago. Yet we only hear, for the most part, about gentrification of traditionally working class areas. The only time I have heard about "degentrification" recently is in relation to seaside towns such as Worthing.And hardly true in that case either. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2023 16:56:29 GMT
So gentrification trend no longer helpful to Tories there? Gentrification is a hugely overused word. More of the uk is degentrifying than gentrifying. Wandsworth gentrified decades ago. Why were the Wandsworth seats still swinging to the Tories in 1992 when London moved quite sharply to Labour? |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 22, 2023 16:57:34 GMT
Gentrification is a hugely overused word. More of the uk is degentrifying than gentrifying. Wandsworth gentrified decades ago. Why were the Wandsworth seats still swinging to the Tories in 1992 when London moved quite sharply to Labour? Gentrification. Popular council. |
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Post by melthamhd94nn on Jun 22, 2023 17:46:28 GMT
Matt Walker is the Lib Dem candidate. He is a councillor for Knaresborough om North Yorkshire Council. Probably confirms that they are not going to throw the kotchen sink at this one. He really will not be considered "the local choice", which is immaterial to me when it comes to voting, but seems to be a big bonus in LD campaigning. He apparently used to run the minor injuries unit at Selby Hospital. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 22, 2023 18:08:46 GMT
Probably confirms that they are not going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. He really will not be considered "the local choice", which is immaterial to me when it comes to voting, but seems to be a big bonus in LD campaigning. He apparently used to run the minor injuries unit at Selby Hospital. "Bloody Knaresborough people, coming to Selby, stealing our jobs" Joking aside, it wouldn't bother me. |
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davidh
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Post by davidh on Jun 22, 2023 22:03:15 GMT
That is genuinely the most random result I’ve ever seen. In similar cases there’s usually at least something to explain it (uncontested, very small size of ward, good year for party, hideously unpopular council etc), but that’s a case of everything actively pointing against a Conservative win and they still won 1 of the seats. Tories gained a seat in Bradford in 1995. Their candidate had the same name (Hussain) as the Labour incumbent - might explain plenty? Considering Tories were wiped out practically everywhere across West Yorkshire and beyond, that year. No, that one was more down to internal community politics within the substantial ex-Pakistani population in Toller ward. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 22, 2023 22:33:36 GMT
Why were the Wandsworth seats still swinging to the Tories in 1992 when London moved quite sharply to Labour? Gentrification. Popular council.
The Wandsworth phenomena back in the day really was something. Over the years I've done more canvassing, telling and knocking up there than anywhere else and repeatedly heard positive things about the council as a whole and specific individual councillors. People who would otherwise vote Labour made exceptions.
This was a thing even as recently as 2015-16. It was only really the 2017 GE when I noticed a marked drop-off in loyalty to the 'Brighter Borough' brand.
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2023 22:47:03 GMT
the feeling in the Labour Party during the last elections was that the Tory council had run out of ideas & that its shine had faded with the ticket-splitting voters of whom Sir Benjamin speaks. They had a good run and less than a decade ago we in the Labour Party doubted that we would ever win it back, despite our relative strength in parliamentary elections (much augmented in the last 2 elections of course). In the end the ticket-splitters started to run out of reasons to vote Conservative at council level leaving the Tories only with their core loyal-at-all-elections vote. I wouldn't say that their defeat is necessarily permanent though. Once the saliency of Brexit starts to dissipate amongst voters the Tories are perfectly capable of recovery, especially if an incoming Labour government becomes unpopular.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 22, 2023 23:34:02 GMT
the feeling in the Labour Party during the last elections was that the Tory council had run out of ideas & that its shine had faded with the ticket-splitting voters of whom Sir Benjamin speaks. They had a good run and less than a decade ago we in the Labour Party doubted that we would ever win it back, despite our relative strength in parliamentary elections (much augmented in the last 2 elections of course). In the end the ticket-splitters started to run out of reasons to vote Conservative at council level leaving the Tories only with their core loyal-at-all-elections vote. I wouldn't say that their defeat is necessarily permanent though. Once the saliency of Brexit starts to dissipate amongst voters the Tories are perfectly capable of recovery, especially if an incoming Labour government becomes unpopular. I think in general people can be a bit too quick to call political changes permanent |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 23, 2023 8:25:49 GMT
the feeling in the Labour Party during the last elections was that the Tory council had run out of ideas & that its shine had faded with the ticket-splitting voters of whom Sir Benjamin speaks. They had a good run and less than a decade ago we in the Labour Party doubted that we would ever win it back, despite our relative strength in parliamentary elections (much augmented in the last 2 elections of course). In the end the ticket-splitters started to run out of reasons to vote Conservative at council level leaving the Tories only with their core loyal-at-all-elections vote. I wouldn't say that their defeat is necessarily permanent though. Once the saliency of Brexit starts to dissipate amongst voters the Tories are perfectly capable of recovery, especially if an incoming Labour government becomes unpopular. I think we have big demographic problems irrespective of the saliency of brexit. At least we would need to change the demographic to which we appeal. |
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2023 8:44:22 GMT
the last one is a given. Political parties to win elections have at times to appeal to demographics they aren't appealing to at that time.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 23, 2023 9:37:14 GMT
the last one is a given. Political parties to win elections have at times to appeal to demographics they aren't appealing to at that time. And I think the Conservative Party are pretty flexible in that sense, more so than say the Republican Party in the US and their long ongoing issues in appealing to the black vote |
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