ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Jun 10, 2023 12:48:34 GMT
Nurse Nurse - we've got another one!
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jun 10, 2023 13:06:38 GMT
New seat in 2010, always won by Tories and Nigel Adams the sole MP to date. 2019 result: | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | | Conservative | Nigel Adams | 33,995 | 60.3 | | Labour | Malik Rofidi | 13,858 | 24.6 | | Lib Dem | Katharine Macy | 4,842 | 8.6 | | Yorkshire | Mike Jordan | 1,900 | 3.4 | | Green | Arnold Warneken | 1,823 | 3.2 |
Labour second in every election here to date. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 10, 2023 13:15:16 GMT
Why do they all think they have the right to resign with immediate effect?
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2023 13:20:07 GMT
Comparisons of 2019 results
Chesham and Amersham. Con 55% LD 26% Lab 13%
Shropshire North Con 63% Lab 22% LD 10%
Tiverton and Honiton Con 60% Lab 20% LD 15%
Old Bexley and Sidcup Con 65% Lab 23% LD 8%
Bedfordshire Mid Con 60% Lab 22% LD 13%
Selby and Ainsty Con 60% Lab 25% LD 9%
So of those Bedfordshire Mid is most similar to Tiverton. Selby is most similar to Old Bexley or Shropshire N.
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willpower3
Non-Aligned
Posts: 888
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 10, 2023 13:24:51 GMT
Why do they all think they have the right to resign with immediate effect? Perhaps because they do. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 10, 2023 13:29:25 GMT
I’m glad we’re not going to have a Selby & Ainsty by-election. I had visions of Labour coming a close second and the press painting it as a crashing failure. why you gotta jinx it  |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 10, 2023 13:33:47 GMT
Why do they all think they have the right to resign with immediate effect? Perhaps because they do. Not legally. I thought I seemed to recall there was a scandal about this guy? I checked wiki and that nanoscandal from 17 can't possibly be it, so I suppose all I'm actually recalling is his 22 announcement to stand down at the next election - leading to discussion of his seat in the rumor & ramp thread? |
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Post by jakegb on Jun 10, 2023 14:05:18 GMT
Labour's John Grogan did hold one of the predecessor seats: Selby (although I accept the boundaries were different).
Big headache for the Tories.
And one heck of an opportunity for Labour. In this seat and Mid Beds, they surely have to step up and fight a serious campaign, even if it means letting the Tories through the middle, otherwise they just play into the narrative that they can only win with the Lib Dems support.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 10, 2023 14:41:24 GMT
Like Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams was supposedly tipped for a peerage in Boris Johnson's resignation honours but ultimately did not receive one. Is his resignation from Parliament based on personal revenge against Boris? I think so.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 10, 2023 14:43:41 GMT
Like Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams was supposedly tipped for a peerage in Boris Johnson's resignation honours but ultimately did not receive one. Is his resignation from Parliament based on personal revenge against Boris? I think so. Against Boris? How would it hurt Boris? |
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Post by kvasir on Jun 10, 2023 15:09:26 GMT
I'm not going to be making any statements that the vast majority of people here don't already know but it bears acknowledging that this is a great test case for just how reliable these polls are for Labour that are predicting a large majority. In a by-election setting with an unpopular Government the seat itself is eminently winnable. Labour ran the old Selby Sistrict with a majority after the 1995 district elections. If this ends up being an easy win, it suggests Labour will be in for a very good night in 2024. If it is only a so-so win, it suggests that polling might be significantly optimistic.
The seat itself has seen population movement from both Leeds and York (though particularly Leeds). Sherburn in Elmet, Riccall, and Tadcaster all could provide added votes to push Labour over the top but they'll need a good turnout differential, with Selby providing a large enough majority. Whatever happens will be interesting to watch and to analyse the results.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 10, 2023 15:10:57 GMT
Labour's John Grogan did hold one of the predecessor seats: Selby (although I accept the boundaries were different). Big headache for the Tories. And one heck of an opportunity for Labour. In this seat and Mid Beds, they surely have to step up and fight a serious campaign, even if it means letting the Tories through the middle, otherwise they just play into the narrative that they can only win with the Lib Dems support. The boundaries weren't massively different - more of the York suburbs were included (even the University) and there was less deeply rural territory in the North (the Ainsty) - but otherwise the core of the seat remained the same. Selby itself, Tadcaster, Sherburn in Elmet. The changes do help the Conservatives, but this is the sort of seat Labour should be winning in a by election like this. And the new Selby seat (which extends into West Yorkshire to take the former pit village of Kippax) is certainly an important Labour target for the next general election. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 10, 2023 15:11:50 GMT
Like Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams was supposedly tipped for a peerage in Boris Johnson's resignation honours but ultimately did not receive one. Is his resignation from Parliament based on personal revenge against Boris? I think so. Sunak. He's doing it to destabilise Sunak. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,173
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Post by r34t on Jun 10, 2023 15:21:15 GMT
Of course it’s legal to resign. We don’t have bonded labour in the UK. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 10, 2023 15:43:24 GMT
Of course it’s legal to resign. We don’t have bonded labour in the UK. Being an MP is not bonded labour. It’s bonded being paid to be self-employed and do whatever they want to do. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,173
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Post by r34t on Jun 10, 2023 15:54:33 GMT
Of course it’s legal to resign. We don’t have bonded labour in the UK. Being an MP is not bonded labour. It’s bonded being paid to be self-employed and do whatever they want to do. Yes. So the idea that it isn’t legal to resign is somewhat …… misplaced. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 10, 2023 16:02:54 GMT
It’s an office, not an employment. The statutory mechanism these three MPs have chosen to give up their office requires the Chancellor of the Exchequer to appoint them, and he arguably could even refuse to do.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 10, 2023 16:18:42 GMT
Of course it’s legal to resign. We don’t have bonded labour in the UK. It totally should be! It's completely bizarre that it isn't! But it isn't. Of course it makes no difference in practice as they will of course be "appointed". They couldn't be legally compelled to do the work they're paid for even if that wasn't the case - even if they weren't trying to leave - so the 'bonded labour' comment is really rather inappropriate anyways. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 10, 2023 16:19:33 GMT
Like Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams was supposedly tipped for a peerage in Boris Johnson's resignation honours but ultimately did not receive one. Is his resignation from Parliament based on personal revenge against Boris? I think so. Um, no. He's doing it as Boris's mate. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,173
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Post by r34t on Jun 10, 2023 16:21:25 GMT
Of course it’s legal to resign. We don’t have bonded labour in the UK. It totally should be! It's completely bizarre that it isn't! But it isn't. Of course it makes no difference in practice as they will of course be "appointed". They couldn't be legally compelled to do the work they're paid for even if that wasn't the case - even if they weren't trying to leave - so the 'bonded labour' comment is really rather inappropriate anyways. But the implication is that they are legally bound to remain in employment, whether enforceable or not, which is where my ‘bonded labour’ comparison came from 🤔 |
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