Selby and Ainsty

[maxque]

Jun 11, 2023 16:15:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Estimated 2022 local election results in this constituency:

C 11,200 (42%)
Lab 8,300 (32%)
Oths 3,600 (14%)
Green 3,000 (12%)
L Dem 150 (0.5%)

Adding Kippax as proposed drags that down to 900 votes and that's before the Ainsty is even removed. I think the proposed Selby would have easily voted Labour in 2022 locals.

[Ron Swanson]

Jun 11, 2023 16:20:23 GMT maxque said:

Jun 11, 2023 16:15:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Estimated 2022 local election results in this constituency:

C 11,200 (42%)
Lab 8,300 (32%)
Oths 3,600 (14%)
Green 3,000 (12%)
L Dem 150 (0.5%)

Adding Kippax as proposed drags that down to 900 votes and that's before the Ainsty is even removed. I think the proposed Selby would have easily voted Labour in 2022 locals.

Tories don’t campaign in Kippax & Methley ward though, judging by the majorities Labour get in local elections, which are higher than you’d expect.

Though I think with a decent following wind the new seat would elect a Labour MP reasonably comfortably. Especially if the candidate is a decent fit.

[AdminSTB]

Jun 10, 2023 20:33:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Osgoldcross is one of my favourite constituency names

There's a place around there called Cridling Stubbs.

[yorkshireluke]

York Lib Dems seem keen to make an impression here, though I imagine it's more of a good opportunity to get some canvassing data than actually campaign for the seat.

This is actually a constituency I know very well for once! Used to deliver groceries to all but the most southern reaches.

[CatholicLeft]

This is the constituency in which I lived before coming to Blackburn. It is a fascinating mix of a place.

[agbutler]

Jun 12, 2023 0:26:03 GMT yorkshireluke said:

York Lib Dems seem keen to make an impression here, though I imagine it's more of a good opportunity to get some canvassing data than actually campaign for the seat.

This is actually a constituency I know very well for once! Used to deliver groceries to all but the most southern reaches.

To be fair, and others might disagree with me here, but from my perspective this seat and Mid Bedfordshire are actually quite similar

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 12, 2023 10:00:23 GMT agbutler said:

Jun 12, 2023 0:26:03 GMT yorkshireluke said:

York Lib Dems seem keen to make an impression here, though I imagine it's more of a good opportunity to get some canvassing data than actually campaign for the seat.

This is actually a constituency I know very well for once! Used to deliver groceries to all but the most southern reaches.

To be fair, and others might disagree with me here, but from my perspective this seat and Mid Bedfordshire are actually quite similar

Not sure about that - does Mid-Bedfordshire have a recent history of heavy industry, with the coal mine closing in my time living there and there still being the Drax Power Station? Does it have anything like a major brewing industry?
Whilst they doubtless share some features, I don't think they are that alike.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Indeed. The main heavy industry in Mid Bedfordshire was brickmaking in Marston Vale but it is far from being anything like as significant as coal mining was in the Selby area, and never employed anything like the same number of people.

[Deleted]

Mid Bedfordshire is much wealthier and much more commuter. I actually think it should be safer for the Tories than the majority alone would suggest

[Deleted]

Jun 12, 2023 10:46:52 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Indeed. The main heavy industry in Mid Bedfordshire was brickmaking in Marston Vale but it is far from being anything like as significant as coal mining was in the Selby area, and never employed anything like the same number of people.

And arguably had a greater impact on the demographics and politics of Bedford constituency than this one 

[maxque]

Jun 11, 2023 2:36:37 GMT maxque said:

Councillors in the constituency:

7 Con
5 Lab
3 Ind
1 Grn

As noted by Davıd Boothroyd in the defection thread, this is now 6 Con, 5 Lab, 4 Ind, 1 Grn.

[YL]

www.gov.uk/government/news/manor-of-northstead--13

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Nigel Adams to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

[LDCaerdydd]

Last to announce his departure, first to be appointed.

Presumably Mad and mislaid her crayons and hasn't sent the letter yet.

[John Chanin]

Jun 12, 2023 16:55:54 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Last to announce his departure, first to be appointed.

Presumably Mad and mislaid her crayons and hasn't sent the letter yet.

Perhaps you have to be steward and bailiff for a full day for it to count.

[johnloony]

Jun 12, 2023 17:01:02 GMT John Chanin said:

Jun 12, 2023 16:55:54 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Last to announce his departure, first to be appointed.

Presumably Mad and mislaid her crayons and hasn't sent the letter yet.

Perhaps you have to be steward and bailiff for a full day for it to count.

When the Northern Ireland MPs resigned in December 1985, it only took a few minutes each.

[greenhert]

The Green candidate for this by-election will be Cllr Arnold Warneken: www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/23581584.arnold-warneken-green-party-candidate-selby-by-election/

[greenhert]

Like with Mid Bedfordshire, there is a considerable danger of the non-Conservative vote being heavily split allowing the Conservatives to hold on with a vote share decrease of >=20% from their general election result.

See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Epping_Forest_by-election

And: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Richmond_(Yorks)_by-election

[johnloony]

Jun 12, 2023 21:50:59 GMT greenhert said:

Like with Mid Bedfordshire, there is a considerable danger of the non-Conservative vote being heavily split allowing the Conservatives to hold on with a vote share decrease of >=20% from their general election result.

See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Epping_Forest_by-election

And: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Richmond_(Yorks)_by-election

This possibility is a key difference between now and the 1993-97 period. Then, an evenly split opposition would have resulted in the Conservative Party coming third, because the Conservative vote had dropped so far that it didn’t matter whether the opposition vote was split or not (q.v. Littleborough & Saddleworth, Perth & Kinross, Eastleigh). The possibility of a Conservative hold remains viable as long as the Conservative Party is able to retain more than a third of the total votes of the three main parties.

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 12, 2023 21:50:59 GMT greenhert said:

Like with Mid Bedfordshire, there is a considerable danger of the non-Conservative vote being heavily split allowing the Conservatives to hold on with a vote share decrease of >=20% from their general election result.

See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Epping_Forest_by-election

And: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Richmond_(Yorks)_by-election

I really don't buy this in this constituency, Labour are the clear challengers, they have held an iteration of this constituency until very recently, and I lived there for years - no other party is seen as challenging the Conservatives at parliamentary level.

[jamie]

The Guardian are calling this constituency ‘Blue Wall’. Because a constituency that voted twice for Tony Blair and ~58% Leave is Blue Wall.