Selby and Ainsty

[finsobruce]

Jun 17, 2023 2:38:59 GMT aargauer said:

Jun 16, 2023 20:07:55 GMT Merseymike said:

He was in the Labour party for 13 years and left - involved in the trade unions.

There's a conservative Keir on West Sussex who must be a great disappointment to his parents!

There will be people who have the name without it being a reference to Keir Hardie ...It's the Scottish equivalent of Ciaran.

[batman]

not many Scottish Tory parents will be giving their children that name at the moment though

[john07]

Jun 17, 2023 7:43:22 GMT batman said:

not many Scottish Tory parents will be giving their children that name at the moment though

Or in the last 100 years?

[andrewp]

The Conservatives are having another go at selecting tomorrow. The runners up in the original selection are not on this shortlist. Shortlist

Adam Gregg, Huddersfield cllr since 2021, events organiser, worked for MP Mark Eastwood, 2019-22; fought Barnsley East, 2019.

Claire Holmes, solicitor & barrister based in Hull; East Yorkshire councillor; board member Transport for the North;

Fabia Tate, fought York Central seat, 2019; has worked for Labman, automation co; campaign manager, Zac Goldsmith, 2014-16

[andrewp]

Claire Holmes selected as the Conservative candidate

[Davıd Boothroyd]

She doesn't have a very long local government career - co-opted onto the local parish council in 2019, Chair in 2020, then elected to ERYC in South East Holderness ward only in May 2021. Lives in one of the small villages near Spurn Point.

[adlai52]

New Anti-Growth Coalition spotting...

Parking the utter intellectual bankruptcy of this sort of campaigning... I do wonder if this will be much of a winning issue for the Conservatives in this seat.

[finsobruce]

Jun 19, 2023 12:47:31 GMT adlai52 said:

New Anti-Growth Coalition spotting...

Parking the utter intellectual bankruptcy of this sort of campaigning... I do wonder if this will be much of a winning issue for the Conservatives in this seat.

Er, weren't they going to loosen regulations to make it easier for house building projects to get the green light? or was that a different government?

[kvasir]

Jun 19, 2023 12:47:31 GMT adlai52 said:

New Anti-Growth Coalition spotting...

Parking the utter intellectual bankruptcy of this sort of campaigning... I do wonder if this will be much of a winning issue for the Conservatives in this seat.

NIMBYism is everywhere including villages that are scared about losing their local character, their lovely view of the countryside, having their services be busier increasing traffic, general disruption and noise caused by the buildings.

[Ron Swanson]

Selby, and North Yorkshire generally, is an area where the new build developments don't look like a complete dog's dinner... and are in keeping with the surrounding area.

Contrast that to (say) the ghastly city fields development in Wakefield, half an hour away.

[london(ex)tory]

Jun 19, 2023 12:47:31 GMT adlai52 said:

New Anti-Growth Coalition spotting...

Parking the utter intellectual bankruptcy of this sort of campaigning... I do wonder if this will be much of a winning issue for the Conservatives in this seat.

They deserve to lose every single seat they hold, at all levels of national and local government.

[kvasir]

Selby and Ainsty according to the 2021 census data.

Population: 105,3000, Households: 44,800

Age Profile:
0 to 4 - 5.2%
5 to 9 - 5.6%
10 to 14 - 6.1%
15 to 19 - 5.3%
20 to 24 - 4.3%
25 to 29 - 5.5%
30 to 34 - 6.2%
35 to 39 - 6.1%
40 to 44 - 6.3%
45 to 49 - 6.6%
50 to 54 - 6.9%
55 to 59 - 7.9%
60 to 64 - 6.9%
65 to 69 - 5.7%
70 to 74 - 6.0%
75 to 79 - 4.1%
80 to 84 - 2.6%
Over 85 - 2.3%

Sex- Female: 50.9%, Male: 49.1%

Legal Partnership (over 16)
Never married or civil partnership - 29.7%
Married or in civil partnership - 52%
Separated but still married or in civil partnership - 2%
Divorced or civil partnership dissolved - 9.5%
Widowed or survived civil partnership partner - 6.1%

Country of Birth
UK - 94.4%
Outside UK - 5.6%

Passport
UK Passport - 82%
Non-UK Passport - 3.7%
No Passport - 13.6%

Length of residence in UK
Born - 94.3%
+10 years - 3.3%
+5 years > 10 - 1.1%
+2 years > 5 - 0.7%
> 2 years - 0.5%

Household size and composition
1 person - 26.2%
2 people - 39.9%
3 people - 16.3%
4 or more - 17.8%
Single family household 70.2%

Household Deprivation
Not deprived - 55.1%
1 dimension - 32.0%
2 dimensions - 10.8%
3 dimensions - 2.0%
4 dimensions - 0.1%

Ethnic groups
White - 97.3%
Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh - 1.0%
Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African 0.3%
Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups - 1.0%
Other ethnic group - 0.4%

National Identity
One or more UK only identity - 95.5%
UK identity and non-UK identity - 1.0%
Non-UK identity only - 3.5%

Religion
Christian - 55.4%
No religion 38.0%
Muslim - 0.3%
Buddhist - 0.2%
Hindu - 0.1%
Jewish - 0.1%
Sikh - 0.1%
Other - 0.4%
Not answered - 5.3%

General health
Very good - 49.4%
Good - 34.4%
Fair - 12.0%
Bad - 3.2%
Very bad - 0.9%

Disability (Equality Act def.)
Yes - 15.9%
No - 84.1%

Provision of unpaid care (+ 5 years old)
None - 91.1%
19 hours of less - 4.8%
20 to 49 hours - 1.6%
50 hours or more - 2.5%

Proficiency in English (+ 3 years old)
Main language English - 97.3%
Not main but very well - 1.1%
Not main but well - 1.1%
Cannot well - 0.5%
Cannot speak English - 0.1%

Accommodation (% households)
Whole house or bungalow - 93.1%
Flat, maisonette or apartment - 6.5%
Caravan, mobile or temporary structure - 0.4%

Number of cars or vans (% households)
No cars or vans - 11.8%
1 car or van - 38.1%
2 cars or vans - 36.6%
3 or more cars or vans - 13.4%

Central Heating (% Households)
Yes - 99.1%
No - 0.9%

Number of bedrooms (% Households)
1 bedroom - 5.3%
2 bedrooms - 22.5%
3 bedrooms - 41.7%
4 or more bedrooms - 30.5%

Occupancy rating for bedrooms (% Households)
+ 2 or more - 50.1%
+1 - 32.9%
0 - 15.8%
-1 - 1.1%
-2 or more - 0.1%

Tenure of Household (% Households)
Owns outright - 37.8%
Owns with mortgage, lone, or shared ownership - 37.0%
Social rented - 11.7%
Private rented or rent free - 13.5%

Second address indicator (% Households)
No second address - 95.3%
Second address in UK - 3.8%
Second address outside UK - 0.9%

Distance travelled to work (% 16 years over an in employment)
> 10 km - 21.8%
10 km to 30 km - 25.0%
30 km and over -7.3%
Works at home - 32.8%
Other - 12.1%

Methods of travel to work (% 16 years over an in employment)
Works at home - 32.8%
Driving car or van - 53.4%
On foot - 5.6%
Passenger in car or van - 3.4%
Bicycle - 1.5%
Bus, minibus, coach - 1.2%
Train - 0.7%
Motorcycle, scooter or moped - 0.4%
Taxi - 0.2%
Underground, metro, light rail, tram - 0.0%
Other - 0.7%

Economic activity status (+16 years)
Economically active: In employment - 60.8%
Economically active: Unemployed - 2.2%
Economically inactive - 37.0%

Employment history (+16 years not in employment)
Worked in last 12 months - 11.9%
Not worked in last 12 months - 69.5%
Never worked - 18.5%

Occupation (+16 in employment)
Managers, directors and senior officials - 15.9%
Professional occupations - 18.8%
Associate professional and technical occupations - 13.5%
Administrative and secretarial occupations - 9.1%
Skilled trades occupations - 11.2%
Caring, leisure and other service occupations - 7.9%
Sales and customer services occupations - 7.1%
Process, plan and machine operatives - 7.6%
Elementary occupations - 8.9%

Socio-economic classification (NS-SeC) (+ 16 years)
L1, L2 and L3 - 15.0% (Higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations)
L4, L5 and L6 - 19.9% (Lower managerial, administrative and professional occupations)
L7 - 11.4% (Intermediate occupations)
L8 and L9 - 11.7% (Small employers and own account workers)
L10 and L11 - 6.5% (Lower supervisory and technical occupations)
L12 - 10.7% (Semi-routine occupations)
L13 - 12.5% (Routine occupations)
L14.1 and L14.2 - 5.5% (Never worked, long term unemployed)
L15 - 4.8% (Full-time students)

Hours per week worked
Part time: 15 hours or less - 9.5%
Part time: 16 to 30 hours - 18.6%
Full time: 31 to 48 hours - 58.7%
Full time: 49 hours or more - 13.2%

Highest level of qualifications (% +16 years)
No qualifications - 15.5%
Level 1, 2 or 3 qualifications - 42.3%
Apprenticeship - 6.3%
Level 4 qualifications or above - 33.6%
Other qualifications 2.3%

Schoolchildren and full-time students (% +5 years)
Students - 17.8%
Not a student - 82.2%

[J.G.Harston]

Jun 20, 2023 20:17:03 GMT kvasir said:

Selby and Ainsty according to the 2021 census data.

Age Profile:
0 to 4 - 5.2%
5 to 9 - 5.6%
10 to 14 - 6.1%
15 to 19 - 5.3%
20 to 24 - 4.3%
25 to 29 - 5.5%
30 to 34 - 6.2%
35 to 39 - 6.1%
40 to 44 - 6.3%
45 to 49 - 6.6%
50 to 54 - 6.9%
55 to 59 - 7.9%
60 to 64 - 6.9%
65 to 69 - 5.7%
70 to 74 - 6.0%
75 to 79 - 4.1%
80 to 84 - 2.6%
Over 85 - 2.3%

One of the really surprising things you notice when doing census research is how drastically the population pyramid has changed. As shown there, today almost every age decile has exactly the same population until the 70s and then it plummets to zero. It is in effect a rectangle. In 1901 the population pyramid was a triangle, dropping in a straight line from age 0-9=20% to age 90-100=less 1%. (almost) HALF THE POPULATION WERE CHILDREN!

                        1901                                                  2021
 0- 9 20% *****************************************    0- 9 12% ************************
10-19 21% ******************************************  10-19 11% **********************
20-29 15% *******************************             20-29 13% **************************
30-39 12% ************************                    30-39 13% **************************
40-49 11% **********************                      40-49 13% **************************
50-59  8% *****************                           50-59 14% ****************************
60-69  5% ***********                                 60-69 11% **********************
70-79  3% ******                                      70-79  8% ****************
80-89  0% *                                           80-89  4% ********
90-99  0%                                             90-99  1% **

[Pete Whitehead]

I also found this quite striking

Jun 20, 2023 20:17:03 GMT kvasir said:

Methods of travel to work (% 16 years over an in employment)
Works at home - 32.8%
Driving car or van - 53.4%
On foot - 5.6%
Passenger in car or van - 3.4%
Bicycle - 1.5%
Bus, minibus, coach - 1.2%
Train - 0.7%
Motorcycle, scooter or moped - 0.4%
Taxi - 0.2%
Underground, metro, light rail, tram - 0.0%
Other - 0.7%

Less than 2% use public transport of any kind and even fewer cycle. I find it striking not because I suspect it is unusual but actually because it is very much the norm for 'normal' parts of the country like this. The focus on both public transport and cycling is purely a metropolitan obsession

[kvasir]

Jun 21, 2023 9:50:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I also found this quite striking

Jun 20, 2023 20:17:03 GMT kvasir said:

Methods of travel to work (% 16 years over an in employment)
Works at home - 32.8%
Driving car or van - 53.4%
On foot - 5.6%
Passenger in car or van - 3.4%
Bicycle - 1.5%
Bus, minibus, coach - 1.2%
Train - 0.7%
Motorcycle, scooter or moped - 0.4%
Taxi - 0.2%
Underground, metro, light rail, tram - 0.0%
Other - 0.7%

Less than 2% use public transport of any kind and even fewer cycle. I find it striking not because I suspect it is unusual but actually because it is very much the norm for 'normal' parts of the country like this. The focus on both public transport and cycling is purely a metropolitan obsession

We obviously have to also remember that these data are probably influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.

I would also say many people chose a car because of limited choices. In the constituency there is an important bus route from Leeds through Tadcaster to York. There is a train from Leeds to York that goes through Church Fenton but it is a limited stop. There is the Leeds to Hull train that goes through Selby, but that is largely it. It is impossible to really know how many people who chose a reliable and frequent service to tie together the towns and villages in the area better with Leeds and York (the two main destinations) and it probably would require significant subsidy that I'm not sure we can really afford.

Assuming areas like this cannot economically support comprehensive public transport doesn't mean providing that service in areas that it would be more beneficial is incorrect though. Helping reducing individual car usage would be great both for the planet, climate change, and for the economics of households who maybe would rather save the money for other expenditures but cannot.

[bjornhattan]

Jun 21, 2023 9:50:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I also found this quite striking

Jun 20, 2023 20:17:03 GMT kvasir said:

Methods of travel to work (% 16 years over an in employment)
Works at home - 32.8%
Driving car or van - 53.4%
On foot - 5.6%
Passenger in car or van - 3.4%
Bicycle - 1.5%
Bus, minibus, coach - 1.2%
Train - 0.7%
Motorcycle, scooter or moped - 0.4%
Taxi - 0.2%
Underground, metro, light rail, tram - 0.0%
Other - 0.7%

Less than 2% use public transport of any kind and even fewer cycle. I find it striking not because I suspect it is unusual but actually because it is very much the norm for 'normal' parts of the country like this. The focus on both public transport and cycling is purely a metropolitan obsession

It isn't a particularly unusual figure (Selby and Ainsty ranks 485th for public transport being used to travel to work out of 573, so there's quite a lot of places with lower figures), but it's still a lot lower than the median seat, which is Dover at around 4.8%. Within North Yorkshire it's intermediate between the four relatively urban seats* and the three very rural seats, which probably isn't too surprising.

* I'm including Scarborough and Whitby in this category - there's a lot of basically empty moorland in the seat but most of the people live in quite dense towns so it's a more urban seat than population density would suggest; the peripheral Scarborough estates around Eastfield have the greatest proportion of public transport commuters in the county.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Broadly speaking, non-drivers fall into two (not entirely exclusive) groups:

1. Those too poor to run a car and
2. Those who live in a large enough place that they don't need to leave it for most everyday purposes, and when they do have good enough public transport connections to do so.

It's not a constituency with large numbers of the very poor and the towns it contains are all small, so it's not a surprise.

Plus, and this is important, the Travel to Work stats from the 2021 census are basically junk for the obvious reasons.

[Max]

Jun 20, 2023 20:17:03 GMT kvasir said:

Selby and Ainsty according to the 2021 census data.

Population: 105,3000, Households: 44,800


Country of Birth
UK - 94.4%
Outside UK - 5.6%


Length of residence in UK
Born - 94.3%
+10 years - 3.3%
+5 years > 10 - 1.1%
+2 years > 5 - 0.7%
> 2 years - 0.5%


Any explanation for this disparity?

[Crimson King]

combination of entry errors and rounding?

[bigfatron]

Jun 21, 2023 12:28:08 GMT Max said:

Jun 20, 2023 20:17:03 GMT kvasir said:

Selby and Ainsty according to the 2021 census data.

Population: 105,3000, Households: 44,800


Country of Birth
UK - 94.4%
Outside UK - 5.6%


Length of residence in UK
Born - 94.3%
+10 years - 3.3%
+5 years > 10 - 1.1%
+2 years > 5 - 0.7%
> 2 years - 0.5%


Any explanation for this disparity?

Aren't those born on UK overseas military bases treated as 'UK Country of birth' for statistical purposes but are not actually born here?
I think my friend's kids fall into this category...