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Post by jakegb on Jul 22, 2023 17:20:20 GMT
The rural backlash is real. How much of a dent in Sunak's majority could we see in Richmond and Northallerton next time? Hague did rather well in 2001 there as Leader despite the national circumstances but he was of course opposition leader so probably they liked his increased profile. Plus there was already a sizeable swing there in '97 (but Labour still couldn't get closer than 10,000 votes behind). Major did see his majority reduced considerably in '97 but I think there were boundary changes and Huntingdon still remained one of the, if not the, safest seat nationally. I don't think Blair saw any major swing (majority-wise) against him despite the Iraq backlash in 2005. I reckon he will get a similar percentage majority to Hague in 2001. A small dent, but no major damage. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 22, 2023 17:21:02 GMT
Why is there a rural backlash? What specifically are they lashing back against ? Genuine question as I have no real connection to rural England There's a mixture of factors that have been bubbling up for a while, but it's only now that it's hit boiling point. A lot of the problems with public services are especially severe in the countryside, especially the health service: most county hospitals are in a bad way, the shortages in the ambulance services are a bigger problem than elsewhere for obvious reasons and so on. Then there are the problems caused by the mishandling of Brexit (from a rural perspective). Then there's the almost complete disappearance of the police in the countryside: a lot of farmers aren't even bothering to report thefts now and this is quite a culture shock. Then there's the decimation of rural bus services. The new agricultural subsidies regime is unpopular (and quite badly thought through in places) and the process by which it was drawn up has been very high handed and this has upset people. The concerns of the farming community have been ignored over the various post-Brexit trade deals and there's a definite feeling of betrayal over that. It's easy to forget that while intense mechanization means that not that many people are employed directly in agriculture now, a lot of people have connections to it: my father (who is not a Conservative, but my point here is sociological), for instance, was raised on a smallholding and a lot of his customers are farmers, and this is true of a lot of the other tradesmen he knows and sometimes works with. There are some other issues as well, but they all come back to the same general theme of feeling ignored and taken for granted even as problems multiply, and a real sense from some that 'their' party has turned its back on them. It is all quite toxic and is growing more so all the time. |
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Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 19:16:33 GMT
The rural backlash is real. How much of a dent in Sunak's majority could we see in Richmond and Northallerton next time? Hague did rather well in 2001 there as Leader despite the national circumstances but he was of course opposition leader so probably they liked his increased profile. Plus there was already a sizeable swing there in '97 (but Labour still couldn't get closer than 10,000 votes behind). Major did see his majority reduced considerably in '97 but I think there were boundary changes and Huntingdon still remained one of the, if not the, safest seat nationally. I don't think Blair saw any major swing (majority-wise) against him despite the Iraq backlash in 2005. The Huntingdon constituency was enormously reduced in size in 1997, as it had had a huge electorate in the previous parliament. The swing against John Major is estimated to have been a long way below the national average, and it remained the safest Conservative seat, with its vote share (though still only 54%) two whole per cent higher than that seen for the Conservatives in any other constituency. After his retirement it has gone quite a way down the list of safest Conservative seats, though it remains safe enough by normal standards. You're right about both Hague & Blair; although Reg Keys had a well-publicised & deeply personal campaign against him, the swing in his constituency was quite small. Hague's seat in 2001 took over from Major's as the safest Conservative seat in Britain at the time. |
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Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 19:20:56 GMT
Why is there a rural backlash? What specifically are they lashing back against ? Genuine question as I have no real connection to rural England There's a mixture of factors that have been bubbling up for a while, but it's only now that it's hit boiling point. A lot of the problems with public services are especially severe in the countryside, especially the health service: most county hospitals are in a bad way, the shortages in the ambulance services are a bigger problem than elsewhere for obvious reasons and so on. Then there are the problems caused by the mishandling of Brexit (from a rural perspective). Then there's the almost complete disappearance of the police in the countryside: a lot of farmers aren't even bothering to report thefts now and this is quite a culture shock. Then there's the decimation of rural bus services. The new agricultural subsidies regime is unpopular (and quite badly thought through in places) and the process by which it was drawn up has been very high handed and this has upset people. The concerns of the farming community have been ignored over the various post-Brexit trade deals and there's a definite feeling of betrayal over that. It's easy to forget that while intense mechanization means that not that many people are employed directly in agriculture now, a lot of people have connections to it: my father (who is not a Conservative, but my point here is sociological), for instance, was raised on a smallholding and a lot of his customers are farmers, and this is true of a lot of the other tradesmen he knows and sometimes works with. There are some other issues as well, but they all come back to the same general theme of feeling ignored and taken for granted even as problems multiply, and a real sense from some that 'their' party has turned its back on them. It is all quite toxic and is growing more so all the time. Many people think that everyone who lives in rural areas is directly connected with agriculture, but that has not been the case for many years. While rural voters still tend to be predominantly anti-Labour, I can't recall a time when they have been more fiercely critical of the Tories than they are at the moment. |
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Post by stodge on Jul 22, 2023 19:30:52 GMT
Wasn't Hague's result (and indeed other rural seats in 2001) influenced by the foot and mouth outbreak and criticism in rural circles of the Government's response - the policy of mass slaughter?
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 22, 2023 19:41:49 GMT
Wasn't Hague's result (and indeed other rural seats in 2001) influenced by the foot and mouth outbreak and criticism in rural circles of the Government's response - the policy of mass slaughter? Wasn't the Galloway and Upper Nithsdale result attributed to the foot and mouth outbreak? |
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Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 20:02:02 GMT
The answer is probably "yes, to some extent" in both cases, but it would be a bit of an over-simplification. Labour's loss of NW Norfolk has certainly been attributed to it too, though not sure how accurately. Richmond shares a border with Penrith & the Border where foot & mouth was a particularly large problem, and that became the second-safest Tory seat in Britain. There was also a swing way above average in Carlisle, which is not a totally urban seat although it is predominantly, and did see quite a few foot & mouth cases in its rural minority, although Labour still won there easily enough.
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Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 20:03:41 GMT
In particular, it's not clear why the SNP should have suffered from a foot & mouth outbreak for which they were obviously not in any way responsible.
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 22, 2023 20:11:19 GMT
In particular, it's not clear why the SNP should have suffered from a foot & mouth outbreak for which they were obviously not in any way responsible. Perhaps the Conservatives capitalised on the issue better, or it was attributed to motivating Conservatives to vote who otherwise may have stayed at home. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2023 21:43:12 GMT
Why is there a rural backlash? What specifically are they lashing back against ? Genuine question as I have no real connection to rural England. Something you have in common with both Johnson and Sunak and their respective visions of the Conservative Party! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 22, 2023 21:48:47 GMT
The rural backlash is real. How much of a dent in Sunak's majority could we see in Richmond and Northallerton next time? Hague did rather well in 2001 there as Leader despite the national circumstances but he was of course opposition leader so probably they liked his increased profile. Plus there was already a sizeable swing there in '97 (but Labour still couldn't get closer than 10,000 votes behind). Major did see his majority reduced considerably in '97 but I think there were boundary changes and Huntingdon still remained one of the, if not the, safest seat nationally. I don't think Blair saw any major swing (majority-wise) against him despite the Iraq backlash in 2005. Technically he increased his majority! Though that really just tells us not to rely on that metric much. Labour Tony Blair 24,421 58.9 −6.0 Conservative Al Lockwood 5,972 14.4 −6.5 Liberal Democrats Robert Woodthorpe Browne 4,935 11.9 +2.9 Independent Reg Keys 4,252 10.3 New Keys stood on an anti-War and anti-Blair platform. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 22, 2023 22:02:20 GMT
Wasn't Hague's result (and indeed other rural seats in 2001) influenced by the foot and mouth outbreak and criticism in rural circles of the Government's response - the policy of mass slaughter?
To some extent, yes. And the impending/inevitable hunting ban was an issue in rural communities at that election. As indeed was the 2000 fuel crisis.
But these factors were most significant in seats that were already Tory, so while the 'rural affairs effect' likely contributed to a modest swing nationally, that only translated into the infamous net gain of 1.
I felt at the time, and still do, that Hague probably deserved better.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 22, 2023 22:08:58 GMT
Why is there a rural backlash? What specifically are they lashing back against ? Genuine question as I have no real connection to rural England For those involved in agriculture, a combination of numerous factors including rising production costs, shortage of labour often leading to greater wastage at harvest, squeeze/disintegration of profits as supermarkets demand produce (particularly dairy) at ever lower costs, and, certainly from Cheshire/Shropshire farmers quoted in our local media, nothing replacing the subsidies received from the Common Agricultural Policy (whatever our opinions on Brexit it’s probably significant that the National Farmer’s Union opposed it to it and remain highly critical of its impact on farming in the UK). Outside the ag sector, cuts in public services such as buses, libraries, small village schools. And they’re just as impacted by the cost of living pressures as urban dwellers. Totally unscientific, but my cousin married into a very archetypal Yorkshire village family, historically Conservative, who feel that, since Johnson, the Party’s only interested in propping up the so-called Red Wall; a farmer in Shropshire North rang in to a 5 Live phone in during that by-election arguing that what was now needed was a Coalition similar to Australia where the Liberals were unashamedly the centre right Party of urban areas and the Nationals were the centre right Party of rural Australia (and indeed their tagline is “standing up for rural Australia”). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2023 23:38:51 GMT
Why is there a rural backlash? What specifically are they lashing back against ? Genuine question as I have no real connection to rural England. Something you have in common with both Johnson and Sunak and their respective visions of the Conservative Party! I think Rishi Sunak, whatever else you may say about him, does have a certain connection to a rural area.. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Jul 23, 2023 2:03:53 GMT
Something you have in common with both Johnson and Sunak and their respective visions of the Conservative Party! I think Rishi Sunak, whatever else you may say about him, does have a certain connection to a rural area.. A connection that began when he was selected for the seat! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 23, 2023 5:33:34 GMT
I think Rishi Sunak, whatever else you may say about him, does have a certain connection to a rural area.. A connection that began when he was selected for the seat! And I don't get the impression he's done much to 'make the constituency his own'. Though the negative personal vote he had in his first election has disappeared over time anyways. |
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Post by tonyhill on Jul 23, 2023 5:57:47 GMT
One thing that I've heard from several people in different villages around Winchester is a resentment against incomers (mostly from London) whose first action is to erect large gates to prevent access to their property, and who then play no part in village life thereby undermining what had historically been a stable social culture. Whether this has any political impact I don't know: at a by-election I suppose it might.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 23, 2023 8:36:03 GMT
One thing that I've heard from several people in different villages around Winchester is a resentment against incomers (mostly from London) whose first action is to erect large gates to prevent access to their property, and who then play no part in village life thereby undermining what had historically been a stable social culture. Whether this has any political impact I don't know: at a by-election I suppose it might. That will probably prove a double boost to the Lib Dems in Winchester. The local NIMBYs will vote Lib Dem and the wealthy incomers from London will too. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2023 8:56:35 GMT
One thing that I've heard from several people in different villages around Winchester is a resentment against incomers (mostly from London) You're giving me ideas tonyhill . Sutton Scotney is one such village, and it's beautiful.  |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 23, 2023 11:24:37 GMT
I see that Keir Mather is gay - and has previously worked for Wes Streeting and Matthew Parris.Interesting perhaps!
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